#01Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
Detecting bus delays and service anomalies in Niterói with autoencoder latent feature representations
Matheus Germano, Claudio E. C. Campelo
Bus riders judge service by two failures: single trips that run late, and days on which the whole system misbehaves. We ask whether one unsupervised representation of raw GPS telemetry can serve both diagnoses on the NetMob 2026 Niterói bus dataset. An autoencoder compresses each trip into a 64-dimensional latent vector; the frozen encoder feeds supervised delay classifiers, and the reconstruction error serves as an anomaly score. Two findings are negative. First, the latent representation does not improve delay detection: gradient boosting on per-trip summary features reaches $0.846 \pm 0.013$ ROC-AUC against $0.838 \pm 0.016$ for the best latent setup, and the gap becomes significant once the preprocessing filters are relaxed. Second, two of the three external checks of the anomaly score were circular. Retraining without rainfall removes the rain association ($5.4\%$ against $5.0\%$ flagged, $p = 0.84$) and an apparent citywide disruption on 23 March. What survives is a day-level signal stable across three autoencoders (Spearman $ρ\geq 0.96$), driven mostly by day type, with degraded-telemetry days still separable within weekday and weekend strata. The alarm threshold limits detection more than the score does: a pooled percentile cut flags $5.7\%$ of trips on the worst degraded day, while re-scaling within each bus line flags $29.3\%$. The delay model rests almost entirely on one feature, no latent dimension is individually interpretable, and 22 chronic line-directions carry half of all delayed trips.
#02Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
CounterFlow: Target-Conditioned Flow Matching for Visual Counterfactuals
Paul Sevellec, Elisa Fromont, Romaric Gaudel and 3 more
In eXplainable AI, counterfactual explanations have gained significant traction by offering users direct, intuitive, and actionable insights into model decisions. We introduce CounterFlow, a novel framework based on Conditional Flow Matching that generates visual counterfactual explanations by directly steering a source image toward a user-specified target class. By leveraging target-conditioned vector fields, CounterFlow identifies highly realistic semantic modifications while requiring substantially lower computational overhead than traditional GAN- or diffusion-based architectures. Empirical evaluations on standard benchmarks demonstrate that CounterFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance in both visual realism and target class switching. By working directly in the raw pixel space, CounterFlow offers a more practical solution for real-world deployment.
#03Oct 26, 2026
stat.ML
Model Selection for Off-Policy Evaluation via Pairwise Bellman Validation
Lars van der Laan, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Nathan Kallus
Model selection and hyperparameter tuning pose a central challenge in off-policy evaluation (OPE) because errors of fitted Q-functions and occupancy-ratio estimates cannot be directly evaluated from held-out transitions. Bellman-residual and minimax validation methods often require auxiliary regressions or optimization over separate critic classes, adding computational and tuning costs. We introduce pairwise Bellman validation (PBV), a tuning-free minimax procedure for selecting among finite classes of fitted Q-functions and occupancy-ratio estimators using held-out transitions. PBV constructs critics from pairwise candidate differences, requiring only finitely many empirical moment calculations without auxiliary validation models or separate critic optimization. We establish finite-sample oracle inequalities relative to the best available candidate, even under candidate-class misspecification. Our key insight is that Q-function errors and log ratios between candidate and true occupancy ratios provide oracle critics whose Bellman and adjoint Bellman moments control estimation error. Pairwise candidate differences approximate these unknown critics, while penalties account for comparator approximation error. For Q-function selection, we first develop unweighted PBV, which evaluates pairwise Bellman moments under the offline distribution and admits oracle guarantees under a pairwise coercivity condition relating the offline distribution to the target-policy dynamics. We then develop target-aligned PBV (TA-PBV), which uses marginalized importance weighting to provide error control without pairwise coercivity. For occupancy-ratio selection, we develop adjoint PBV (A-PBV), which evaluates adjoint Bellman moments against log-ratio critics. On Hopper and Deep OPE, unweighted PBV performs competitively, while target-occupancy weighting can improve performance in settings with controlled overlap.
#04Oct 26, 2026
cs.RO
Pretraining Knows What, Simulation Teaches How: Compositional Generalization in a Sim-Trained Robot Agent
Benjamin Pikus, Daniel Saunders, Mircea Mironenco and 11 more
A robot policy needs to understand what a task is asking for in a scene, and how to move the robot to accomplish that task. To achieve these two skills, we introduce Zero-real Agent Policy (ZAP), a recipe that teaches a small off-the-shelf vision-language model to control a robot via a simple tool harness. We use a pretrained 27B parameter model to bootstrap world understanding and reasoning, followed by supervised fine-tuning and GRPO on simple simulated tasks to teach it how to move the robot. Without any real-world robot data during training, ZAP reaches 96.7% success on real-world tasks, matching GPT-6 Astra in our harness and outperforming the MolmoAct2 VLA (33.3%), while running 3x faster and 17x cheaper than GPT-6 Astra. We demonstrate that ZAP also generalizes to completely new objects, goals, strategies, and language by seating a test tube in a rack (and choosing a different hole in the rack when prompted), handing a test tube between arms mid-air, drawing an X on a tic-tac-toe board, and playing chess. These goals and types of manipulation don't appear in our training data. Furthermore, ZAP also transfers to an unseen embodiment. On a single-arm Franka, ZAP reaches 55.9% on RoboLab-120, 4.9 percentage points ahead of the leading VLA/WAM baseline.
#05Oct 26, 2026
cs.CV
Does VGGT Know What It Does Not Know?
Adityan Thirumani Srinivasan, David Nordström
Feed-forward 3D reconstruction models such as VGGT regress cameras and geometry in a single forward pass, but they report no uncertainty for the camera poses they predict: an incorrect relative pose looks no different from a correct one. We ask whether the frozen model nonetheless knows when its pose is wrong. On HardMatch, a benchmark of 1,000 deliberately difficult image pairs on which VGGT fails on 35% of pairs, a linear probe on VGGT's frozen features predicts pose failure on held-out categories with ROC-AUC 93.5%, compared with 79.7% for VGGT's own point-map confidence and 77.7% for a classifier trained on all of VGGT's outputs. The probe catches failures VGGT is confident about, lets a downstream system abstain on the pairs it distrusts, and transfers without retraining to rotation failures on PhotoTourism and ScanNet-1500, beyond what co-visibility explains. This knowledge is absent from the per-image encoder: it is computed partway through the layers that fuse the two views, and the same holds for a second model, $π^3$. In essence, we find that VGGT knows more about its own failures than it reports.