#01Oct 26, 2026
stat.ME
Recertifying decisions via e-closure: uniform improvements of conformal risk control and randomized e-BH
Tian Bai, Aaditya Ramdas
Statistical procedures often control expected loss at a prescribed level while leaving part of their risk budget unused. Building on the e-value representation of risk-controlled decisions and the e-closure principle for multiple testing, we formulate recertification, a general paradigm for improving procedures by exploiting computable slack in their validity certificates. A valid procedure's losses normalized by their risk budgets form a state-indexed e-value collection; conversely, decisions whose normalized losses are bounded by this collection inherit its risk guarantees. Recertification uses distributional structure to quantify slack, enlarge the certifying e-values while preserving validity, and construct less conservative decisions. We develop two applications. For conformal risk control (CRC) with a known loss family, recertification redistributes unused risk budget among the held-out points of each hypothetical augmented sample. The resulting controller is valid under every finite exchangeable law and no more conservative than CRC on any calibration sample. For convex losses on an interval of actions, repeated recertification converges geometrically to an admissible controller. For false discovery rate control with arbitrarily dependent e-values, recertification exploits unused conditional budgets in randomized e-BH. It yields a closed-form randomized procedure whose rejection set contains that of randomized e-BH for every realization of the shared randomization and whose expected number of rejections is maximal subject to the same conditional budget constraints. Recertifying with the larger e-collection of closed e-BH gives a second closed-form procedure whose rejection set contains that of the first. Experiments on CIFAR-100 hierarchical classification and multiple testing simulations demonstrate improved budget utilization, informativeness and power over the baselines.
#02Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
Detecting bus delays and service anomalies in Niterói with autoencoder latent feature representations
Matheus Germano, Claudio E. C. Campelo
Bus riders judge service by two failures: single trips that run late, and days on which the whole system misbehaves. We ask whether one unsupervised representation of raw GPS telemetry can serve both diagnoses on the NetMob 2026 Niterói bus dataset. An autoencoder compresses each trip into a 64-dimensional latent vector; the frozen encoder feeds supervised delay classifiers, and the reconstruction error serves as an anomaly score. Two findings are negative. First, the latent representation does not improve delay detection: gradient boosting on per-trip summary features reaches $0.846 \pm 0.013$ ROC-AUC against $0.838 \pm 0.016$ for the best latent setup, and the gap becomes significant once the preprocessing filters are relaxed. Second, two of the three external checks of the anomaly score were circular. Retraining without rainfall removes the rain association ($5.4\%$ against $5.0\%$ flagged, $p = 0.84$) and an apparent citywide disruption on 23 March. What survives is a day-level signal stable across three autoencoders (Spearman $ρ\geq 0.96$), driven mostly by day type, with degraded-telemetry days still separable within weekday and weekend strata. The alarm threshold limits detection more than the score does: a pooled percentile cut flags $5.7\%$ of trips on the worst degraded day, while re-scaling within each bus line flags $29.3\%$. The delay model rests almost entirely on one feature, no latent dimension is individually interpretable, and 22 chronic line-directions carry half of all delayed trips.
#03Oct 26, 2026
cs.RO
Pretraining Knows What, Simulation Teaches How: Compositional Generalization in a Sim-Trained Robot Agent
Benjamin Pikus, Daniel Saunders, Mircea Mironenco and 11 more
A robot policy needs to understand what a task is asking for in a scene, and how to move the robot to accomplish that task. To achieve these two skills, we introduce Zero-real Agent Policy (ZAP), a recipe that teaches a small off-the-shelf vision-language model to control a robot via a simple tool harness. We use a pretrained 27B parameter model to bootstrap world understanding and reasoning, followed by supervised fine-tuning and GRPO on simple simulated tasks to teach it how to move the robot. Without any real-world robot data during training, ZAP reaches 96.7% success on real-world tasks, matching GPT-6 Astra in our harness and outperforming the MolmoAct2 VLA (33.3%), while running 3x faster and 17x cheaper than GPT-6 Astra. We demonstrate that ZAP also generalizes to completely new objects, goals, strategies, and language by seating a test tube in a rack (and choosing a different hole in the rack when prompted), handing a test tube between arms mid-air, drawing an X on a tic-tac-toe board, and playing chess. These goals and types of manipulation don't appear in our training data. Furthermore, ZAP also transfers to an unseen embodiment. On a single-arm Franka, ZAP reaches 55.9% on RoboLab-120, 4.9 percentage points ahead of the leading VLA/WAM baseline.
#04Oct 26, 2026
q-bio.NC
On the stability of learning
John J. Vastola
Learning algorithms are usually analyzed under the assumption that informative gradients are continuously available. But this is not always true---learning signals in biological neural networks, for example, may be sparse, local, and only intermittently available at any given synapse. In this work, we show that if gradient information is noisy and only intermittently available, learning may be unstable. In particular, even if average learning dynamics converge to the correct optimum, variance in learning may be asymptotically infinite. We explore this point in a number of analytically tractable settings, including single-layer and multi-layer linear networks, and derive explicit conditions under which learning is stable. These conditions complement, but are conceptually distinct from, existing conditions related to the stability of stochastic gradient descent. Our work demonstrates that unbiased credit assignment is not enough for reliable learning; sufficiently frequent and informative feedback is also required, which yields an additional constraint on models of biologically plausible learning.
#05Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
A theory of noisy linear recurrent neural network learning dynamics
John J. Vastola, Kanaka Rajan
Biological neural networks are noisy: their dynamics involve difficult-to-predict fluctuations which are likely due not just to chaos, but also to a variety of low-level biophysical processes. Despite the omnipresence of intrinsic noise, its theoretical consequences are incompletely understood, especially in the context of learning. For example, does noise meaningfully shape representation learning, or is it better viewed as a nuisance factor whose presence or absence changes little about what solution is found and when? Here, we argue that intrinsic noise can significantly modulate representation learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs), since it can strongly break solution-space degeneracies and in some cases control whether a non-degenerate solution exists at all. We show that this is true for an analytically tractable model of noisy RNN learning with a linear activation function and white noise inputs. We find that, in the so-called rich regime (where weights are initialized with small values), noise strongly modulates the directions in which the read-in, readout, and recurrent weights align. Moreover, we find that noise produces a kind of phase transition: for sufficiently high noise, a non-degenerate solution is not even optimal if parameter scales are limited (e.g., via regularization). These results extend recent analytic work on RNN representation learning and show that noise can act as a fundamental determinant of representations.