#01Oct 19, 2026
cs.LG
On Data Scaling in Tabular ML: More Data, Better Generalization?
Ivan Rubachev, Nikita Lazarev, Artem Babenko
Recent work in tabular machine learning has emphasized the importance of diverse and realistic evaluation settings. The niche of large-scale (1M+) data, however, remains under-explored. To study training-data scaling, we assemble eight real-world tabular datasets with up to around ten million training examples, retaining the natural distribution shifts of the tasks and using random-split evaluation as a control. We find that GBDTs and MLP-based models show broadly similar scaling trends, with gains from both additional training data and algorithmic improvements. Tabular foundation models show more varied scaling behavior, with recent versions benefiting more consistently from larger contexts even under distribution shift. However, scaling training data under distribution shift introduces new challenges: in-distribution and out-of-distribution performance mostly improve together at smaller scales but can diverge at larger scales. We examine this through MLP capacity sweeps and comparisons of the validation distributions used for tuning and early stopping in MLPs and GBDTs. We also compare common practices of using validation data, contrasting its use for model selection in MLP pipelines with using it for in-context fitting in tabular foundation model pipelines. Under stronger shifts, MLPs selected using validation representative of the evaluation conditions generally maintain or improve performance as training data grows. In contrast, including such examples in context improves foundation-model performance, but does not prevent deterioration with increasing training size in our experiments.
#02Oct 19, 2026
cs.RO
CoopUQ: Robust Multi-Robot Social Navigation via Uncertainty-Aware Cooperative Forecasting
Zehao Wang, Jianpeng Yao, Yuping Wang and 9 more
Reinforcement learning enables mobile robots to make fast and scalable navigation decisions in constrained human-shared environments. However, directly extending single-robot approaches to multi-robot settings often fails to ensure safety and efficiency, especially under occlusions and out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, where individual robots may overlook potential risks or make inaccurate predictions. Leveraging cooperation effectively for both prediction and navigation remains a major challenge. We propose CoopUQ, a multi-robot social navigation framework that bridges uncertainty-aware cooperative occupancy forecasting and robust decision making. CoopUQ predicts future occupancy grid maps through cross-robot spatiotemporal feature fusion and further leverages forecasts and their uncertainty to guide policy via constrained multi-agent reinforcement learning, where the cost penalizes navigation through regions predicted to be occupied or highly uncertain. This design enables the policy to adapt its risk sensitivity under distribution shifts. Experimental results across multiple Unity3D-based simulation environments with both in-distribution and OOD settings, including diverse layouts, pedestrian densities, and rushing behavior, demonstrate improved prediction performance and safety over representative baselines. Real-robot experiments further demonstrate its robustness across various scenes. Our code and videos are available at https://coopuq.github.io/.
#03Oct 19, 2026
stat.ML
Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Market Making on Prediction-Market Order Books
Skander Lejmi
A market maker provides liquidity by quoting prices to buy and sell an asset, earning the spread while managing inventory risk. We study market makers trained with multi-agent reinforcement learning on prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, whose thin order books pose distinct challenges. Three challenges underpin this research: adverse selection may cause a policy trained on real data to stop quoting; the consequences of a quote can arrive many steps after the action; and prediction-market L2 data does not identify individual orders needed for simulation. We address these challenges by reconstructing order-level LOBSTER-format data from Polymarket and training agents in JaxMARL-HFT on 417 real markets. We enrich the baseline market maker's observation space with the book and recent flow, redesign its actions and inventory controls, and propose a cooperative multi-agent decomposition into a quoter and a risk manager trained using recurrent Independent Proximal Policy Optimisation (IPPO) with RNN policies. We investigate reward shaping, particularly reward blending and post-fill markout, to mitigate credit-assignment difficulties between the agents. Our redesigned single-agent market maker quotes more frequently and incurs smaller held-out losses than the retrained JaxMARL-HFT baseline, although the contributions of jointly changed observations, actions and risk constraints are not separately identified. Decomposition alone performs poorly; careful reward design substantially improves the desk relative to the unshaped split and yields our best result. Models are evaluated on realised end-of-episode portfolio value on held-out markets. None establishes positive average portfolio value in periodic held-out evaluation, and each configuration was trained with one seed. The environment, data and protocol lay a foundation for makers that quote many linked markets at once.
#04Oct 19, 2026
cs.CL
MemT-1.0: Towards Memory-Native Evolution
Zhiyu Li, Zeyu Zhang, Linyun Liu and 71 more
Memory-native evolution requires making memory an intrinsic capability of foundation models, enabling them to continuously accumulate and utilize information. To this end, we introduce MemT-1.0, a new architecture of memory foundation models that internalize memory as part of model computation. Building on Metis, MemT-1.0 employs Gated DeltaNet-2 with a stable token-level memory update mechanism within each turn. We further introduce Mixture-of-Storage to scale native memory capacity. Following a deliberate backbone preparation, we develop a two-stage training pipeline consisting of continued pre-training and post-training, supported by 34B tokens of training data and efficient training and inference infrastructure. We release a model family comprising MemT-1.0-Nano and MemT-1.0-Flash, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of memory and general capabilities. The results show that they outperform the parametric memory baselines on average and remain competitive with retrieval-augmented methods, while largely preserving general capabilities. At a history length of 128K tokens, MemT-1.0-Nano achieves approximately $1.86\times$ end-to-end inference speedup and a $66\times$ reduction in persistent storage relative to full context KV cache. By internalizing retrieved procedural experience, MemT-1.0 improves task success on agentic tasks, providing a practical step toward memory-native evolution.
#05Oct 19, 2026
cs.LG
Next Best Action: Causal Constrained Offline RL for Business Action Targeting
Surya Ramachandiran, Yiming Li, Juan Mancilla-Caceres and 2 more
Next Best Action (NBA) systems must select among customer interventions (e.g., discounts, promotions, and lifecycle actions), maximize long-term economic value, satisfy complex operational constraints, and remain causally grounded. Existing approaches lack a rigorous framework for meeting these requirements jointly. We address this gap by formulating NBA as a Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP). We then integrate off-policy causal correction of the estimated customer dynamics directly into the Linear Programming (LP) formulation of the CMDP. The resulting policy selects actions based on customer states to maximize long-term value while explicitly enforcing business guardrails. Furthermore, the LP formulation yields shadow prices that quantify the economic trade-offs of operational constraints (e.g., fairness and user welfare), enhancing policy interpretability. We validate our proposed offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework on an industry case study involving rideshare coupon targeting, where customer states are defined by Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) stages. We evaluate performance using model-based off-policy evaluation, with causal dynamics estimated from a temporal holdout. Under the observed coupon budget and RFM state representation, our optimized policy improves customer lifetime value (LTV) by 19% over the estimated behavior policy and 8% over a myopic baseline. Although the demonstrated action space is binary, the proposed framework is action-agnostic, yielding a general-purpose decision module for targeting systems that manage multiple interventions.