#01Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
CounterFlow: Target-Conditioned Flow Matching for Visual Counterfactuals
Paul Sevellec, Elisa Fromont, Romaric Gaudel and 3 more
In eXplainable AI, counterfactual explanations have gained significant traction by offering users direct, intuitive, and actionable insights into model decisions. We introduce CounterFlow, a novel framework based on Conditional Flow Matching that generates visual counterfactual explanations by directly steering a source image toward a user-specified target class. By leveraging target-conditioned vector fields, CounterFlow identifies highly realistic semantic modifications while requiring substantially lower computational overhead than traditional GAN- or diffusion-based architectures. Empirical evaluations on standard benchmarks demonstrate that CounterFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance in both visual realism and target class switching. By working directly in the raw pixel space, CounterFlow offers a more practical solution for real-world deployment.
#02Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
Quantitative Generalization Bounds for Multi-Layer Transformers: A Few Long Strings can Beat Many Short Ones
Marius Henry, Michael Rizvi-Martel, Michael Hahn
Transformer-based language models exhibit an astonishing capacity to generalize to longer and more difficult problem instances than those seen in training. However, theoretical understanding of this phenomenon still lags behind. Unlike most machine learning models, the generalisation abilities of transformers inherently require considering two axes. On one hand, one must examine in-distribution statistical generalisation, which concerns the ability of a model to broaden a function from training samples to novel samples of the same distribution. On the other hand, given the sequential nature of language data, one must also consider length generalisation, which reflects whether a model trained on inputs of a given length can extrapolate to longer ones.These two notions have mostly been studied separately, leaving open how they interact. In this work, we give a joint treatment of both axes for fixed-precision transformers. We give generalisation guarantees in terms of the parameter sizes of the involved models, as well as the quantization space and the alphabet size that supply the sequences. Finally, we illustrate how the requirements in the sample count and training length trade off. In particular, we find that increasing training length can be exponentially more efficient than increasing the sample size. Experiments support predictions of the theory.
#03Oct 26, 2026
cs.AI
Beyond Physical Illness: Can Clinical Narratives Reveal Emerging Mental Health Risks in Chronically Ill Patients?
Sudeshna Jana, Siddhartha Laha, Manjira Sinha and 2 more
Mental-health risks such as depression, dementia, and suicidal ideation can emerge during hospitalization among chronically ill patients and may worsen without timely recognition and intervention. However, most existing mental health studies focus on patients with established psychiatric conditions rather than patients hospitalized primarily for physical illness. In this work, we investigate whether latent mental-health risk in chronically ill patients can be inferred from longitudinal clinical narratives. We construct a weakly supervised cohort around 4,000 patients from MIMIC-III using mental-health evidence extracted from discharge summaries. A hierarchical state-space framework derives mental-health representations from day-wise clinical narratives and models their temporal evolution for risk estimation throughout hospitalization. Preliminary results demonstrate improved binary risk prediction using the proposed representations and show distinct model derived risk trajectories between risk and no-risk cohorts, providing a foundation for studying emerging mental-health risks in chronically ill patients.
#04Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
Audit Where Hacks Pay: Budgeted Strong-Verifier Audits Against Reward Hacking in GRPO
Shurun Li, Michael Hua Wang, Haibo Zeng and 1 more
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards trains on cheap checks, such as unit tests, that a policy can learn to game, while a stronger check is too expensive to run on every rollout. We study how to spend a limited strong-verifier budget in GRPO, separating which weakly passing rollouts to audit from what reward a caught hack receives. At a fixed policy state with centered advantages, the expected update depends on a design only through each rollout's marginal audit probability and correction; reflecting a caught hack's reward about the failure reward negates the advantages of an all-hack group; and auditing whole groups with the fewest weak passes first (low-pass budgeted audits, LB) minimizes the advantage mass left on hacks among pass-count designs with a fixed correction when a label's value falls with the pass count. We tested this analysis in actual LLM training: from each run's starting state, the sign of this mass on a frozen panel predicted whether hacking would be suppressed in 33 of 39 runs, including 13 of 16 preregistered ones. In LeetCode (Wong et al., 2026) and Countdown-Code (Khalifa et al., 2026), LB drives hacking to near zero, while random audits with the same penalty and budget do not and use more labels. We also find that the randomness of the update affects training: in Countdown-Code, two unbiased corrections, per-item reward-level IPW and a group-level advantage correction, bring hacking down too but end 6.1-11.8 and 8.0-11.5 points lower in held-out accuracy than LB at the same budget. A full audit, which the group-level correction reproduces in expectation, stays within about two points of LB in three seeds, while LB uses 28% of its labels, and allocating the same correction by pass count recovers most of the loss (one seed). Training outcomes thus depend not only on the expected update but also on the randomness of its estimate.
#05Oct 26, 2026
cs.LG
A Hybrid Framework for Explainable Aviation Risk: Causal Chain Extraction from Safety Reports with Physics-Based Failure Quantification and Interventional Analysis
Yutian Pang, Yifang Tian, Jiacheng Xie and 4 more
Aviation authorities hold decades of accident reports whose narratives record how investigators reconstructed each accident. Computational work on these archives has mostly sorted reports into fixed taxonomies. In this work, we propose a hybrid framework in which a text-based corpus identifies the leading factors of a failure mode. Physics-based models then quantify how likely that failure is at a stated operating point. Ordered causal chains extracted from 56,202 American accident reports with a local large language model aggregate into a causation knowledge graph. On an evaluation sample of 2,000 reports, the chains recover 90.8% of investigator-flagged causes. Each physical factor whose drivers the record carries receives an occurrence model calibrated to the accident population. A leaky noisy-OR fitted to the corpus combines the factors into a failure mode probability that supports intervention. For engine power loss, the carburetor icing model separates 1,205 icing accidents from other accidents using temperature and dewpoint alone, reaching 0.61 in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve against a density ratio ceiling of 0.64. Routine weather hours give no valid control, because flying concentrates in fair weather. On later years the physics adds 0.03 to that area for occurrence and nothing for severity, so its value lies in interpretability. On four named accidents, abduction gives a probability of necessity of 0.29 to 0.50 for the heat omission, under monotonicity. The Fast Causal Inference algorithm does not license the largest backdoor adjustment on the learned networks.