#01Aug 5, 2026
cs.AI
From Score Matrices to Football-Aware Match-State Simulation: An Auditable LLM Harness for Exact-Score Reranking
Shaopeng Liang
Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge. Dynamic Poisson-family models estimate team strength, expected goals, and coherent score probabilities, but do not directly understand roles, tactical matchups, motivation, or how a first goal changes behaviour. Large language models (LLMs) can reason about such concepts, yet are not calibrated probability engines. We combine both components through an auditable information harness. This paper documents four iterations: V1, a dynamic score-driven Dixon-Coles baseline; V2, which maps LLM contextual ratings back into expected-goal parameters; V3, which replaces scalar correction with goal-by-goal simulations over a frozen score-candidate set; and V4, which adds shared first-breakthrough and post-goal cascade judgments, time-aware stopping, and deterministic tail candidates. The harness defines input semantics, supplies pre-match evidence, and constrains the LLM to an inspectable reasoning route. On a chronological replay of the first 150 matches of the 2025-26 English Premier League, V1 achieved 10.0% Top-1 and 26.7% Top-3 exact-score accuracy. V3 reached 12.0% and 30.0%, while V4 reached 14.7% and 30.7%. V4 increased candidate coverage from 77.3% to 84.7%, although no added tail candidate became a Top-3 exact hit. V1's native 1X2 distribution achieved 53.3% argmax accuracy, 0.9878 log loss, 0.5870 Brier score, and 0.2095 ranked probability score. These results are exploratory: the development slice is not an untouched benchmark, and temporal input isolation cannot exclude outcome memory in a closed LLM. The contribution is an auditable hybrid architecture, a clear design evolution, and negative findings showing where football-aware simulation does and does not improve score selection.
#02Aug 5, 2026
cs.AI
Hierarchical Graph Memory for LLM Agents with Path-level Localization and Rewrite
Xiawei Yue, Boran Wang, Xiaoqing Zhang and 2 more
Agents for long term reasoning require a memory that can be efficiently and effectively updated over time, as new facts and external feedback continue to arrive. Recently, graph memory has been adopted to offer structural organization for multi-hop retrieval and reasoning. However, existing methods store all memories in a flat graph, and accumulated historical memories can introduce irrelevant contexts and increase the cost of evidence selection during retrieval. Moreover, they typically update memory units independently, requiring repeated unit-wise rewrite to cover related changes. To address these issues, we propose HiGram, an evolving hierarchical graph memory framework with path-level localization and rewriting. Specifically, we first propose a hierarchical graph memory, which organizes the memory into coarse-to-fine architecture composed of upper-level nodes and MemoryUnits, thereby reducing the amount of irrelevant information during retrieval. We further propose MicroGraph-based path-level localization, which leverages query and update conditioned MicroGraphs to identify support subgraph and evidence path before rewrite. Finally, we propose a coordinated rewriting method that jointly revises intra-unit memory and inter-unit dependencies, enable valid dependency structures updating in the localized evidence path. Experiments on benchmarks for long-term conversational question answering and conflict-aware memory evaluation demonstrate that our method demonstrate substantial improvements over baselines in answer quality and token efficiency. Besides, our method improves answer accuracy and query-valid evidence selection under dynamic, static, and conditional conflicts.
#03Aug 5, 2026
cs.AI
CoPlan: A Trustworthy Co-Intelligence Interface for Care Planning through Role-Based Contestable Argument Graphs
Hung Truong Thanh Nguyen, Hélène Fournier, Piper Jackson and 4 more
AI-supported care planning can help clinicians, patients, caregivers, and care teams coordinate complex decisions across clinical, functional, psychosocial, and environmental needs. However, many AI systems present recommendations as fixed outputs, limiting stakeholders' ability to inspect, challenge, and revise plans when they conflict with clinical judgment, patient values, or real-world feasibility. We present CoPlan - a Co-Intelligent and Contestable Interface for Human-AI Care Planning. CoPlan uses a multi-agent workflow in which specialized AI agents generate candidate interventions and supporting or challenging arguments, while human care planners can accept, reject, modify, or add arguments before final plan generation. Through this design, CoPlan combines co-intelligence, in which humans and AI agents contribute complementary expertise, with contestability, where recommendations remain open to inspection, revision, and justification. We demonstrate CoPlan in an aging-in-place care planning scenario. The system supports adaptive care team recruitment, role-based argument review, final care plan generation, and practical follow-up through scheduling agents. This work contributes a contestable care planning interface and a design framing for trustworthy human-AI care planning that preserves human agency and clinical accountability.
#04Aug 5, 2026
cs.AI
Item Response Theory for AI Safety
Joshua Fonseca Rivera, Neil Shah, David Demitri Africa and 1 more
Language models differ in how safely they behave and these differences are measured by safety benchmarks. But aggregated benchmark scores are hard to trust and interpret, because benchmarks duplicate one another, correlate heavily, and models may sandbag when they detect evaluation. To address these issues, we draw on Item Response Theory (IRT), a statistical toolkit for measuring these latents from performance on items with inferred psychometric properties. We fit IRT models to eight safety benchmarks across 192 language models, the largest psychometric analysis of LLM safety evaluations to date, and contribute three results. First, we find that three interpretable factors of refusal strictness, truthfulness, and contextual harm explain most of the variance between models across benchmarks. Second, psychometrically selected items recover full benchmark scores with lower error than random subsets of the same size, and roughly ten adaptively chosen items suffice for several individual benchmarks, cutting evaluation cost by 97-99%. Third, IRT supports audits of individual models, showing that it can be used to detect naive sandbagging and changes of model behind APIs. Overall, we show IRT is a ready-made toolkit for reading, reducing, and auditing safety benchmarks, which we recommend frontier labs and evaluators adopt.
#05Aug 5, 2026
cs.LG
Optimizing What Policies Learn From: Recoverability-aware Rollout Intervention Learning
Zheyuan Zhang, Manqing Mao, Hong Wang and 8 more
Critic-free group-based reinforcement learning has become a scalable approach for post-training large language models. However, most existing methods allocate the same number of rollouts to every task and trajectory state, even though some rollouts provide much more useful learning signals than others. Recent work has started to treat rollout generation as an adaptive decision, but two important limitations remain. First, intervention strategies are often based on fixed heuristics and therefore cannot adjust as the policy changes during training. Second, these methods usually decide only how many rollouts to generate, without explicitly controlling where and how to intervene. To address these limitations, we propose Recoverability-Aware Intervention Learning (RAIL), a training-time framework that learns how to generate rollouts based on the improvement produced by each intervention. RAIL models intervention selection as an online contextual-bandit problem and trains a recoverability controller using intervention traces collected through a shadow-to-live procedure. This allows the controller to keep learning while the underlying policy evolves. We evaluate RAIL in terms of effectiveness, adaptivity, expressiveness, and efficiency. Across multiple settings, RAIL consistently improves performance under limited rollout budgets. These results show that recoverability-aware intervention provides a principled way to generate more informative and less redundant rollouts, leading to stronger learning signals during post-training.