#01Oct 15, 2026
cs.AI
Shortcut Sensitivity in Agent-Safety Evaluations
Hasan Demirkiran, Jens Ernstberger
AI agents take actions through tools. Some actions are sensitive, so guards that supervise them must themselves be evaluated reliably. Yet the data used to evaluate a guard can include cues that make labels predictable without measuring the intended safety construct, and those cues can also influence guard decisions. We introduce a three-level shortcut-auditing framework and audit completed LinuxArena trajectories and two TS-Bench-derived step datasets. We distinguish label predictability, observational guard association, and paired decision sensitivity. In LinuxArena, shorter average shell commands strongly predict trajectory labels. In AgentDojo-Traj, exact-tool lookup falls from F_1=.901 with mixed-domain folds to .495 under domain holdout. In AgentHarm-Traj, released TS-Guard F_1 falls from .902 under row weighting to .719 with equal interaction weighting, while balanced accuracy rises. We then test the strongest safe-row marker association in a seven-configuration screen on a frozen 64-step AgentDojo-Traj cohort using repeated, interleaved Haiku calls. Rewriting the <INFORMATION> marker lowers blocking by 8.33 percentage points, while opaque tool aliases raise it by 11.46 points. All unsafe calls remain blocked; the changes concern false positives against inherited labels. Both effects remain nonzero after subtracting the formatting-placebo effect, with exploratory 95% ranges excluding zero. The same edits also change measured accuracy against inherited labels. This provides direct evidence that benchmark representation can materially change a guard's decisions and measured evaluation performance. The Haiku-sized effects do not reproduce in Luna or deterministic Q8 TS-Guard. We recommend domain group holdouts, evaluation-unit metrics, and placebo-controlled paired interventions.
#02Oct 15, 2026
cs.LG
Baselines and Score Centering in Policy Gradient Estimation
Shuo Han, Ziqing Hu
Reinforcement learning has become a widely used approach to post-training large language models. In a typical implementation, learning is off-policy: The policy generating the responses differs from the policy being trained because of training-inference mismatch or policy staleness in asynchronous training. This discrepancy is commonly addressed by importance sampling, whose ratio is usually regularized in practice through truncation, masking, or clipping. Under regularized importance sampling, the importance-weighted policy gradient is no longer invariant to constant shifts in the reward. This invariance is recovered by using the covariance between the reward and the importance-weighted score as the estimand, which coincides with the policy gradient when the ratio is not regularized. This note develops this covariance perspective for both sequence-level and token-level importance sampling. The covariance perspective reveals the roles of the group-mean baseline and score centering in policy gradient estimation. Both perform centering in covariance estimation, but they differ in the mean being subtracted: The group-mean baseline uses a sample mean, whereas score centering uses a population mean. The two lead to distinct unbiased covariance estimators with different variances. Whether both forms of centering should be used simultaneously depends on whether importance sampling is applied at the sequence level or at the token level. With sequence-level importance sampling, score centering adds no benefit once the group-mean baseline is used; with token-level importance sampling, using the group-mean baseline without score centering generally introduces bias when the importance ratio is regularized.
#03Oct 15, 2026
stat.ML
SurvICL: a Foundation Model for in-context Survival Analysis
Julie Alberge, Linus Bleistein, Judith Abécassis and 3 more
Tabular foundation models (TFMs) now outperform gradient-boosted trees in classification and regression. Yet in survival analysis, which predicts when an event occurs from censored data, often on small clinical cohorts, we find that no existing TFM beats the half-century-old Cox model. We address this issue by introducing SurvICL, a TFM that predicts survival curves in-context. SurvICL is pretrained on purely synthetic datasets generated from a novel flexible proportional-odds prior that outperforms other prior types in our ablation study. Unlike most other survival models, SurvICL is trained with a plain quantile regression loss, which is possible because its synthetic pre-training data generator can provide uncensored event times. Additionally, we introduce the largest survival benchmark to date spanning 103 datasets. On the 63 datasets held out from all design decisions, SurvICL outperforms 20 tree-based, deep, and foundation-model baselines without any tuning: it wins 82.9\% of pairwise comparisons in integrated Brier score, against 71.3\% for the runner-up, the Cox model, and is the first model to rank above Cox on small datasets.
#04Oct 15, 2026
cs.LG
Lean Graph Search for Formal Theorem Proving
Yihan Xu, Jia-Chen Gu, Junyi Zhang and 7 more
Retrieving relevant lemmas is crucial for formal theorem proving, enabling provers to build machine-checkable proofs from established mathematical results. Recent retrieval systems match library declarations to a target theorem or its intermediate proof steps, but make limited use of multi-hop dependencies among declarations. These dependencies can reveal supporting lemmas that are not necessarily lexically similar to the target theorem but recur in proofs of related problems. To this end, we propose LeanGraphSearch, a graph-based retrieval method for Lean 4 that constructs a graph from Mathlib's forward dependencies and traverses it to uncover supporting lemmas through multi-hop dependency chains. Specifically, LeanGraphSearch links each declaration to the premises it depends on, uses a graph-based ranking algorithm to propagate relevance from semantically matched declarations to their dependencies, and reranks the expanded candidates against the original query. Across two mathematical retrieval benchmarks, LeanGraphSearch improves recall by up to 12% over the strongest baseline, LeanSearch v2, on MathlibQR and increases coverage of complete annotated proof routes on MathlibMPR, covering up to 3.7% of extra groups. More importantly, we evaluate whether these retrieval gains translate into improved end-to-end theorem proving by integrating LeanGraphSearch into an iterative proving loop guided by Lean feedback. Across three theorem proving benchmarks, LeanGraphSearch improves pass rate at {8, 16, 32} reflection turns by as much as 40% compared to vanilla prover and at most 10% compared to LeanSearch v2, showing higher accuracy-cost efficiency. These findings highlight the value of dependency graph search for theorem proving and motivate further research on structure-aware search for proof discovery.
#05Oct 15, 2026
cs.LG
Training-Free On-Policy Distillation
Bangji Yang, Jiajun Fan, Zhaoyu Zhu and 2 more
On-policy distillation consolidates specialist models into one student at the price of rollouts, teacher passes and gradient steps for every teacher. We show that the consolidation does not need training: with forward passes only, the capabilities of separately tuned specialists can be aggregated into one model that is, on average, more accurate than either specialist alone. When specialists share a base model, distillation has an exact layer-wise solution: each linear layer of the fused model must reproduce every specialist's output on the inputs that specialist receives while reading its own answers, a least-squares problem whose solution needs only the second moments of those inputs. One forward pass over a few hundred rollouts provides them. We call this training-free on-policy distillation (\method). What the rollouts contain matters more than the solver: answers truncated in repetition loops are few among a mathematics specialist's rollouts but carry a large share of their tokens, and removing them lifts the fused model on AIME25 from task arithmetic's level to the specialist's at matched precision. On Olmo~3 7B, a few GPU-hours of forward computation per specialist yield a generalist that keeps most of each specialist's gain on each of seven mathematics and code benchmarks.