#01Nov 10, 2026
stat.ML
A Theory of Cross-Validation Variance
Nathaniel S. O'Connell, Jaime L. Speiser
Cross-validation estimates predictive performance by repeatedly splitting the data into training and validation sets, fitting the model on the first and evaluating it on the second. Every observation influences the estimate in two roles, through its own evaluation when it is held out and through the models it helps fit when it trains. The random splits determine its weight in each role. From this representation, we prove an exact finite-sample identity for the variance of the cross-validated estimate. For a given splitting scheme with a common training set size, the variance is a function of these weights, with constants of the model, the metric, and the population. It covers metrics averaged over observations, such as mean squared error, and over case--control pairs, such as the AUC. The identity shows which schemes to use. The variance decomposes into sampling variance, which depends only on the training size, and variance due to the random fold splitting, which arises when the weights change from one draw of the splits to the next. K-fold cross-validation, whose weights are equal across observations by design, is therefore variance optimal at first order; Monte Carlo and bootstrap cross-validation are not. The first-order variance of K-fold does not depend on K, and under reasonable conditions on the model leave-one-out has the smallest variance of any K-fold scheme. For the AUC the same holds for leave-pair-out, which evaluates every case--control pair. Finally, we show the cross-validated estimate is asymptotically normal with the identity's full variance. Together, these results provide a general theoretical foundation for inference on cross-validated performance and establish principles for selecting variance-optimal cross-validation designs.
#02Nov 10, 2026
cs.LG
When Does the Real Wiring Win? Testing connectome structure-function claims against unmeasured physiology
Yeyuan Liu
Connectome-constrained models are often used to argue that a measured wiring diagram outperforms shuffled or rewired wiring, and hence that structure shapes function. Such comparisons can confound wiring with how the models are tuned: a connectome fixes who connects to whom, not the excitability, gains or plasticity rates the model also needs, and modellers often tune these until the real-wiring model works. We separate three estimands: physiology tuned on the real wiring and transferred to nulls (P1), each wiring tuned on its own (P2), and P2 restricted to physiology consistent with independent data (P3). The biases involved are known in machine learning (under-tuned baselines, inherited weights, winner's curse); we measure what they do to biological conclusions, using synthetic ground truth, placebo nulls and three Drosophila circuit models. Some claims survive every protocol we test: segregated reward and punishment dopamine improves learning, and head-direction topography is required for a persistent bump. Others do not. In the mushroom body, the real Kenyon-cell output wiring beats a cross-subtype identity shuffle by 0.09 under P1 and P2 but loses to it by 0.09 under P3 (95% CIs exclude zero; held-out runs confirm). The verdict is set by the share of alpha'beta' cells among active Kenyon cells, which P1 selects low; at the share implied by imaging (about 44%) the real-wiring model fails to learn, exposing a model inadequacy rather than a deficit of the fly's wiring. In flyvis, P1 penalises a mirrored connectome, which has a constructed solution within 0.07 (median) of the real error, more than a spatially shuffled one in 50 of 50 members; the ranking survives ten-fold longer retraining but depends on the checkpoint at fifty-fold. A credible structural claim needs matched optimisation, data-constrained physiology and a model that still works there.
#03Nov 10, 2026
cs.SD
Exploring Post-Hoc Disentanglement of Audio Foundation Models for Music Similarity
Lucas de Souza Brandão, Gabriel da Costa Merlin, Diego Furtado Silva
Audio foundation models like CLAP, MuQ, and MERT excel at capturing general musical similarity. On the other hand, their entangled latent spaces limit interpretability and fine-grained attribute control. Conditional Similarity Networks (CSN) address this by pairing a backbone representation model with learned masks that gate the embedding space into attribute-specific subspaces. However, existing methods train the backbone from scratch, rather than leveraging pretrained foundation models. We instead present a systematic study of post-hoc disentanglement, adapting CSN to gate frozen pretrained embeddings. We evaluate adding trainable parameters to adapt the embedding under different masking and pooling regimes across two datasets. Our findings show that minimal adaptation capacity is sufficient for post-hoc gating to improve both attribute-specific disentanglement and overall retrieval performance, while pooling, masking, and depth choices yield limited additional gains.
#04Nov 10, 2026
cs.LG
The Unused Input: The Initial State as a Conditioning Interface for Recurrent TSFMs
Bernhard Voggenberger, Christian Ganhör, Levente Zólyomi and 2 more
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) forecast unseen series without task-specific training. Increasingly they are built on recurrent backbones, whose constant per-step cost makes long-context inference cheap, and which, unlike transformers, carry a state. A recurrent backbone computes its prediction from two inputs: the observed context window and the initial recurrent state. In practice only the first is utilised and the initial state is unused by convention. We ask whether the initial state can be utilised in recurrent TSFMs. Using the xLSTM-based zero-shot forecaster TiRex as a case study, we freeze the backbone and train only a small head that writes a context vector into the initial state, so that any change in accuracy is attributable to the injected state rather than to adapted weights. A spectral summary of the input window, learned once and applied unchanged to every series, lowers mean GiftEval MASE by 0.175%, with every seed improving, which neither a parameter-matched LoRA adapter nor a learnable static state reproduces. An embedding of text attached to each series, evaluated on six MoTime datasets, reveals two roles for the state. As a per-dataset adaptation surface, a static state lowers MASE by 0.04-6.96% of the zero-shot baseline (8-70% of the gain of full fine-tuning). As a channel for exogenous information, the text-conditioned state lowers it by a further 0.15-0.41% of the zero-shot baseline on four of six datasets and, combined with a LoRA adapter, exceeds full fine-tuning, which has no access to the text, on one of them. In TiRex, the effect concentrates in the mLSTM blocks and is strongest at short context. The results are preliminary and the improvements small, but they point to the initial state as a direction for further research.
#05Nov 10, 2026
cs.CV
UGG: Unified Generative Geometry Model
Amani Kiruga, Zhiyi Li, Ruojin Cai and 4 more
Understanding 4D scenes is a core challenge in visual intelligence, requiring models to jointly capture scene geometry, appearance, and dynamics from partial observations. However, existing approaches are subdivided into feedforward models for direct geometric prediction, and generative models for visual synthesis. We introduce UGG, a unified framework for 4D scene understanding that jointly models RGB video and geometric representations such as depth and camera pose. By assigning different noise levels across modalities and time, UGG formulates visual generation and geometric prediction as conditional completion within a single generative model. This flexible formulation enables the model to learn from diverse, heterogeneous datasets with different subsets of geometric and visual annotations. Furthermore, our generative formulation enables inference-time search over multiple plausible scene hypotheses, using geometric evidence extracted from observed RGB frames to improve geometric prediction without ground truth geometry. We demonstrate UGG's effectiveness over non-unified baselines across camera-controlled video generation, depth estimation, and camera pose prediction, including in challenging sparse observation settings. Code and visualizations are available at https://ugg-model.github.io/