#01Nov 10, 2026
cs.LG
Continual-ARC: Measuring Skill Acquisition over a Working Lifetime
Daniel Lenton
Agent harnesses have emerged as a promising mechanism for continual learning, alongside test-time parametric learning. However, the current benchmarks have several limitations: they generally focus on a single applied domain, serve each instance only once, and assume a single family of learner, so memory-based and weight-based systems are rarely compared on the same scale. We propose Continual-ARC, a lifelong stream built from the three ARC-AGI editions, whose tasks need no domain knowledge. The same tasks return after dormant gaps with fresh instances, while new tasks keep arriving. On each instance, the learner may pay for demonstrations, submit answers, or act inside the harness, with retries permitted on incorrect submissions, which are paid for. Each instance is scored based on the share of this feedback budget consumed. Since a learner may keep anything between instances, memory-based and weight-based systems are scored on the same scale. After the stream, the learner is frozen and tested on fresh instances of the tasks it met, which measures memorization, and on unseen tasks, which measures generalization. We run an agent harness with frozen weights, with and without persistence, on Qwen3.5-9B and GLM-5.3 Flash, comparing them with two prompting floors, a program-induction method and Qwen3.5-9B's weights trained to imitate GLM-5.3 Flash. Persistence in the harness generally does not improve memorization unless provided with explicit expert guidance. Most harness-based methods still learn less than a floor that simply caches each task's demonstrations, across all models we tested. No harness-based method gains on unseen tasks, whereas weight-based learning shows substantial gains. This opens the door to future weight-based continual learning that could teach models to drive harnesses in new domains.
#02Nov 10, 2026
cs.LG
Emergent Biological Capabilities in a Foundation Model for Molecular Interactions
Adi Mashiach
Foundation models trained on large unlabeled corpora develop emergent capabilities, tasks that go beyond the training objective. We extend this paradigm to multimodal biology with Bonbon, a foundation model for molecular interactions trained on approximately 3.2 trillion tokens of paired protein-ligand sequences. From a single representation space, Bonbon exhibits three zero-shot emergent capabilities at hierarchical levels of resolution: functional (mechanism of action), residue (binding site localization, including orthosteric/allosteric discrimination), and bond (covalent versus non-covalent engagement). All three capabilities generalize to out-of-distribution complexes. Bonbon was trained on protein-ligand sequences alone, without any task-specific supervision and without structural coordinates. We conducted controlled scaling experiments across six model scales from 42M to 1.6B parameters; every capability evaluated shows a sharp jump at the largest scale on continuous metrics, even as pretraining loss decreases smoothly. This demonstrates that loss-based scaling laws alone are insufficient to predict when zero-shot emergent capabilities become available. The capabilities reported here emerge after training at a 1:2,000 parameter-to-token ratio to accommodate the sparsity of paired biological interaction data. The same frozen representations achieve state-of-the-art binding and affinity prediction at five orders of magnitude greater speed than co-folding methods. In prospective wet-lab validation across nine disease targets spanning seven protein families, Bonbon achieves a 61.5% dose-response hit rate on de novo compounds, yielding structurally novel molecules not previously reported to inhibit these proteins, including for out-of-distribution targets.
#03Nov 10, 2026
cs.CL
Pterodactyl: Pushing the Limits of Efficient Automated Translation Evaluation
Evelyn Y. Garland, Carola F. Berger
In this paper, we present 1020 Group's submission to the WMT26 shared task on automated quality evaluation. Our system, Pterodactyl, was engineered specifically for subtasks 2 and 3, that is, segment-level quality score prediction and the detection of error-free segments. Pterodactyl is a highly customizable, ultra-low cost system optimized for binary classification in translation triage and data curation. It is based on an LLM-as-a-judge approach, with prompt engineering and model selection guided by ROC analysis. We also developed several variants of Pterodactyl that were specifically adapted for subtasks 3.
#04Nov 10, 2026
stat.ME
One Curve, Different Weights: AUC, the Brier Score, Decision-Weighted AUC, and the Policy Youden Index
Yegor Baranovski
AUC and the Brier score are standard summaries of a binary risk score, yet they can rank models differently. We introduce a weighted AUC, AUC$_π$, which weights each pair of observations by how differently a decision maker with probability of acting $π$ treats them. We show that all three are built on weighted averages of one curve, the Youden index $J(t) = \mathrm{TPR}(t) - \mathrm{FPR}(t)$ across cutoffs $t$, and that the averages differ in the weights they put on the cutoffs. Each weights a cutoff by how much something rises across it: for AUC, the distribution of all scores; for the Brier score, the true probability $\mathbb{E}[Y \mid S]$; for AUC$_π$, the decision maker's probability of acting. Up to normalization, AUC$_π$ is the Brier skill score of the ideal forecast with its weight moved to the cutoffs the decision maker cares about. We also show that weighting pairs by $|π(s) - π(s')|$ is, up to scale, the only pair weight fixed in advance that makes a pair-weighted AUC an average of the Youden curve for every score distribution. As a ranking measure, AUC weights every model the same way. Hand (2009) shows that it can also be read as an average over cost thresholds, and in that reading each model weights the thresholds differently. The numerator of AUC$_π$, which we call the policy Youden index, is the expected share of class 1 a fixed policy acts on minus the expected share of class 0. It judges every model by the same policy and so avoids this; the full ratio AUC$_π$ does not.
#05Nov 10, 2026
math.ST
Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Mixtures of Logistic Regressions
Muheng Li, Peize Zhang, Xin Bing
Mixtures of logistic regressions provide a flexible framework for modeling binary responses, extending standard logistic regression to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity while retaining an interpretable regression structure. In this paper, we study such models with an unspecified mixing distribution. We analyze a sieve nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and derive nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error of the resulting mixture regression function under both fixed and random designs. Our results reveal an explicit tradeoff between statistical estimation error and the approximation error induced by the sieve radius, from which we derive convergence rates under several tail conditions on the mixing distribution. For computation, we propose a finite-particle algorithm that approximates the sieve NPMLE by optimizing the locations and weights of a finitely supported mixing distribution. The method offers numerical advantages over existing algorithms and comes with rigorous convergence guarantees. For any fixed dataset, we establish global convergence of the likelihood to the restricted NPMLE value when the number of particles exceeds a finite threshold. When the true mixing distribution is finitely supported, we further establish uniform global convergence guarantees and derive error bounds that separate algorithmic and statistical errors. Our analysis also yields a denoising bound for the mixing distribution and an identifiability result that complements existing results in the literature.