#01Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
Decision Aware Origin-Destination Demand Estimation with Structurally Constrained Data
Xianzhe Wang, Yueyue Fan, Johannes Royset
Origin-destination (OD) demand plays an important role in transportation system design and management applications. Conventional OD estimation methods typically judge estimation quality based on how estimated demand aligns with observed traffic data and historical demand patterns. We argue that data alignment alone is insufficient; how errors in OD estimates influence downstream decision quality should also be considered. This paper develops a decision aware OD demand estimation framework that leverages structurally constrained traffic data to characterize an admissible demand region, within which we identify OD estimates that would lead to least regret in the downstream decision. Therefore, our OD estimates are both data-consistent and decision-relevant. Methodologically, we approximate the admissible demand region induced by physical network constraints through a geometric representation, which regularizes the search over feasible OD estimates. Within this regularized region, we use a convex surrogate of downstream regret to obtain a tractable decision aware optimization problem. Numerical experiments show that the proposed framework consistently reduces decision regret relative to conventional estimation benchmarks, demonstrating the value of aligning OD demand estimation with downstream decision quality.
#02Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
HyPLM Technical Report
Haowei Lin, Cai Zhou, Xiangxin Zhou
Protein language models (PLMs) are standard tools for variant-effect prediction, protein annotation and design, but the compute needed to train and serve them keeps growing. We present HyPLM-Flash, an efficient and open PLM trained by Hyra 2.0, the research agent developed by our team. HyPLM-Flash is a 650-million-parameter masked language model trained on 726 billion tokens, 0.73 times the data of ESM-2 650M and a fifth to an eighth of the data of E1-600M and ESM C 600M. It runs on an inference engine with fused kernels and INT8 matrix multiplication, embedding about 130,000 residues per second on a single NVIDIA H20 GPU, 1.9 to 2.7 times faster than other 600M-class encoders. In a matched evaluation against 28 public checkpoints on 32 tasks, HyPLM-Flash reaches a ProteinGym zero-shot Spearman correlation of 0.409, statistically tied with ESM-2 650M, ESM C 600M and E1-600M, and the highest organismal-fitness score among self-supervised single-sequence models. It gives the best long-range contact precision of all models evaluated, including ESM-2 15B and ESM C 6B, and a lower masked-residue loss than ESM-2 650M, ESM C 600M and E1-600M on held-out sequences and on recently released PDB chains. Matching state-of-the-art accuracy at a fraction of the training and inference cost, HyPLM-Flash sets a new Pareto frontier for protein language models. We have released the model weights and the inference engine at https://github.com/Tencent-Hunyuan/hyra-results/tree/main.
#03Nov 9, 2026
stat.ME
Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Forecasting: Conditional Coverage and Sharp Score Calibration Rates
Siyuan He, Yuhong Yang
Uncertainty quantification in prediction is a central problem in statistics and machine learning. Conformal prediction provides a flexible approach to constructing prediction sets with valid marginal coverage under exchangeability. In this paper, we investigate conformal prediction for both one-step and multi-step forecasting from a single stationary time series, addressing temporal dependence and the additional challenges of joint prediction across multiple horizons. We propose a kernel-based framework, called Time series Residual Analysis for Calibration with Kernels (TRACK), for estimating conditional quantiles of residual scores and constructing prediction sets from rolling-window forecasters. The framework accommodates heterogeneous uncertainty across horizons and accounts for dependence induced by rolling estimation, while allowing predictor memory and forecast horizons to grow with the sample size. Our finite-sample bounds quantify how temporal dependence and overlapping score windows affect calibration and coverage. We further derive bounds for conditional quantile estimation and pointwise conditional coverage discrepancy. The guarantees extend to more general predictors that admit an accurate rolling-window approximation. We also derive matching minimax bounds over classes of known score maps, clarifying how overlapping score windows affect calibration accuracy. Experimental results from simulations and applications to wind energy generation and bike sharing demand show that our methods improve regional conditional coverage while maintaining competitive interval widths.
#04Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
Operation-aware Multimodal Clinical Decision Support System for ICU Discharge Risk Assessment
Guoqing Zhang, Rafik Hadfi, Takayuki Ito
Unplanned 30-day intensive care unit (ICU) readmission is a critical benchmark for evaluating healthcare quality. Most predictive models assume readmission risk depends solely on a patient's individual pathophysiological state, ignoring hospital operational context and resource capacity. In practice, discharge decisions are dynamic trade-offs between patient stability and bed turnover pressures. To address this gap, we develop an Operation-aware Multimodal Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for ICU discharge risk assessment. The system combines multi-agent collaborative extraction with self-evolving retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to eliminate template noise from progress notes, while constructing departmental workload indicators alongside admission flow features, continuous vital signs, and sparse medical codes (ICD/DRG). Addressing severe class imbalance (about 10.5% readmissions) and alarm fatigue, we implement data normalization, class reweighting, and decision-threshold calibration. In 20 independent runs across 20,000 ICU stays from MIMIC-III, empirical findings demonstrate that: vital signs alone have limited predictive capacity under real-world class imbalance (PR-AUC of 0.1387 +/- 0.0086); directly concatenating raw text embeddings degrades decision tree performance (XGBoost and LightGBM PR-AUC drop to 0.3893 and 0.4030); whereas an end-to-end multimodal fine-tuning architecture (Transformer E2E FineTune) utilizing layer-wise parameter freezing and differential learning rates reverses text negative transfer, achieving the highest AUROC of 0.8288 +/- 0.0110, PR-AUC of 0.4373 +/- 0.0310, and F1-Score of 0.4757 +/- 0.0196. Operational indicators supply independent risk signals, laying an engineering foundation for high-utility clinical decision support tools.
#05Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
FireGate: Bounding Behaviour Change Before Training in Continual RL Fine-Tuning
Md Anwar Hossen, Ali Jannesari
Fine-tuning a deployed language model on one task after another can change behaviour that should stay fixed, such as earlier skills, general chat or refusals. Today, such forgetting is found only after training, on the benchmarks someone chose to run. This work bounds, before training, how often its outputs change on chosen prompt distributions. FireGate places each task's update, such as a new LoRA, behind a gate, which is a classifier on the model's frozen lower layers that decides for each prompt whether the update is used. Where no gate fires, the model computes exactly what the old one computes. As a result, on any prompt distribution, every bounded behaviour score changes by at most the gates' firing rate there over a whole task stream. Calibrating each gate on unlabeled prompts of what must not change fixes that rate before training, with a PAC guarantee, whatever weights training produces. Forgetting is thus bounded by the gate's false-alarm rate, and its price is the gate's power: no update, gated or not, that changes as few protected outputs can change new-task outputs more often than the best test of that level tells new-task prompts from protected ones. On reinforcement-learning streams of up to five tasks, gated training keeps the earlier tasks and changes 3.3% of held-out chat responses, whereas ungated training changes 91.8%. Across seven models, the gain kept behind the gate follows its firing rate on new-task prompts, measured before training. The certificate covers the gated model as deployed, on the prompt distributions sampled for calibration, not against an adversary who searches for prompts that fire the gate.