#01Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
Shaping Useful Noise: Energy Distributions Predict Visual Pretraining Quality
Ching Lam Choi, Antonio Torralba, Phillip Isola and 1 more
Synthetic data can scale visual pretraining, but current selection criteria only partially explain which datasets train strong representations. We propose using the energy profile of a dataset--the distribution of log-probability levels it occupies under a normalised real-image density model--as an audit and curation principle for synthetic data. To operationalise this view, we introduce Energy-Level Distribution Distance (ELD), which compares real and synthetic energy distributions. Real images span sparse high-likelihood scenes and dense low-likelihood textures, so useful synthetic data should cover this energy range rather than collapse to likely but low-variation samples. Across diverse synthetic datasets, ELD exposes mismatches missed by FID and predicts pretraining performance beyond FID, LPIPS variation, and feature-space recall, including across CNN and ViT self-supervised settings. We then use ELD to resample and mix synthetic sources, matching the real-image energy histogram while preserving diversity and improving downstream transfer.
#02Nov 9, 2026
stat.ME
Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Forecasting: Conditional Coverage and Sharp Score Calibration Rates
Siyuan He, Yuhong Yang
Uncertainty quantification in prediction is a central problem in statistics and machine learning. Conformal prediction provides a flexible approach to constructing prediction sets with valid marginal coverage under exchangeability. In this paper, we investigate conformal prediction for both one-step and multi-step forecasting from a single stationary time series, addressing temporal dependence and the additional challenges of joint prediction across multiple horizons. We propose a kernel-based framework, called Time series Residual Analysis for Calibration with Kernels (TRACK), for estimating conditional quantiles of residual scores and constructing prediction sets from rolling-window forecasters. The framework accommodates heterogeneous uncertainty across horizons and accounts for dependence induced by rolling estimation, while allowing predictor memory and forecast horizons to grow with the sample size. Our finite-sample bounds quantify how temporal dependence and overlapping score windows affect calibration and coverage. We further derive bounds for conditional quantile estimation and pointwise conditional coverage discrepancy. The guarantees extend to more general predictors that admit an accurate rolling-window approximation. We also derive matching minimax bounds over classes of known score maps, clarifying how overlapping score windows affect calibration accuracy. Experimental results from simulations and applications to wind energy generation and bike sharing demand show that our methods improve regional conditional coverage while maintaining competitive interval widths.
#03Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
Decision Aware Origin-Destination Demand Estimation with Structurally Constrained Data
Xianzhe Wang, Yueyue Fan, Johannes Royset
Origin-destination (OD) demand plays an important role in transportation system design and management applications. Conventional OD estimation methods typically judge estimation quality based on how estimated demand aligns with observed traffic data and historical demand patterns. We argue that data alignment alone is insufficient; how errors in OD estimates influence downstream decision quality should also be considered. This paper develops a decision aware OD demand estimation framework that leverages structurally constrained traffic data to characterize an admissible demand region, within which we identify OD estimates that would lead to least regret in the downstream decision. Therefore, our OD estimates are both data-consistent and decision-relevant. Methodologically, we approximate the admissible demand region induced by physical network constraints through a geometric representation, which regularizes the search over feasible OD estimates. Within this regularized region, we use a convex surrogate of downstream regret to obtain a tractable decision aware optimization problem. Numerical experiments show that the proposed framework consistently reduces decision regret relative to conventional estimation benchmarks, demonstrating the value of aligning OD demand estimation with downstream decision quality.
#04Nov 9, 2026
gr-qc
Deep-Learning-Assisted Bayesian Inference for Extreme-Mass-Ratio Inspirals
Jian-Jun Song, Zhong-Wu Xia, Wen-Hong Ruan and 3 more
Extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) pose a major challenge to Bayesian parameter inference because of their complex, highly multimodal likelihood surfaces. Locating narrow high-likelihood regions is particularly difficult without knowledge of the true source parameters, which is unavailable in real observations. We develop a deep-learning-assisted Bayesian inference framework that combines neural-network-guided parameter-space localization, particle swarm optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Applied to simulated six-month EMRI signals, the framework recovers posterior distributions in close agreement with reference MCMC analyses initialized near the true parameter values, without requiring such knowledge for initialization. Once the neural network has been trained, the complete inference pipeline takes approximately 10 hours per signal.
#05Nov 9, 2026
cs.LG
LBSNet: Lightweight Brain State Modeling via Learnable Spectral Prototypes for EEG-Based Fatigue Detection
Kun Jia, Zhenyu Cao, Hanlin Yu and 5 more
EEG-based fatigue detection requires modeling spectral information across bands and its temporal variation. Recent methods combine multi-band modeling with adaptive temporal processing, yet how spectral structure across bands should influence the contribution of each temporal interval remains insufficiently explored. We propose LBSNet, a lightweight network that uses prototype-based brain-state modeling to link local spectral structure with temporal aggregation. LBSNet extracts compact multi-band features through band-specific temporal convolution, shared spatial projections, and cross-band recalibration. Within each window, relative spectral activity is encoded as a normalized descriptor and softly matched to learnable spectral prototypes. Prototype assignments and learned prototype importance jointly determine temporal weights for power aggregation, allowing the spectral pattern of each window to guide its contribution to the prediction. Subject-independent experiments on SEED-VIG and SADT show that LBSNet outperforms seven baselines while maintaining low computational cost. Ablation and visualization analyses support prototype-guided temporal weighting, while the learned prototypes reveal a gradual redistribution of relative cross-band spectral states with increasing fatigue. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/zy0929/LBSNet.