#01Oct 22, 2026
stat.ML
Nonparametric autoregressive estimation of probability distributions with parallel gradient boosting
Rémy Chapelle
Nonparametric estimation of joint probability distributions is a core problem in statistics, which is notoriously challenging with high-dimensional data. Such challenges also arise with conditional distribution estimation and have led to flexible algorithms that aim to tackle the ''curse of dimensionality'' by exploiting predictive structures of lower dimension than the ambient space. In this paper, we study the use of such conditional distribution estimators to estimate joint distributions by factorizing the latter in an ''autoregressive'' way. We show that for loss functions satisfying a subadditivity property, bounds on the convergence rate of an autoregressive estimator can be derived from bounds on the convergence rate of the conditional distribution estimators. These bounds relate the difficulty of estimating the joint distribution to that of estimating the most challenging factor in the autoregressive factorization. When the conditional estimators adapt to sparsity in their conditioning sets, we characterize this difficulty through variable elimination in an undirected dependence graph. This allows bounding the rates of convergence by quantities related to the sparsity of the graph, and provides an additional motivation for the autoregressive approach. We then evaluate the practical performance of an autoregressive estimator based on parallel gradient boosting, a flexible nonparametric method for estimating conditional distributions. The estimator demonstrates competitive estimation performance on various simulated and real datasets, even without optimizing the factorization order. Together, these results support nonparametric autoregressive estimation as a practical approach to flexible joint distribution estimation.
#02Oct 22, 2026
cs.LG
A Fix for Softmax and Cross-Entropy
Jonathan T. Barron, Dan Gnanapragasam, Michael Tschannen
Standard implementations of softmax, log-softmax, and cross-entropy have two numerical bugs. The first bug, Softmax Collapse, rounds the target logit's gradient to zero if that one logit is much larger than the others, resulting in gradients that no longer sum to zero. The second bug, Softmax Cancellation, occurs when student logits are close to teacher logits, and produces non-zero gradients even when the student and teacher logits are equal. We present simple implementations of log-softmax, softmax, and cross-entropy that fix both bugs. Our fix eliminates the previously-observed "Slingshot" phenomenon, speeds up grokking with weight decay, prevents accuracy collapse without weight decay, stops student networks from drifting away from the teacher during distillation, and shows that after memorization, logit growth is bounded by an equilibrium between weight decay and Adam's $ε$ hyperparameter.
#03Oct 22, 2026
cs.LG
Piano2Pop: Expanding Piano Demos into Pop Productions Without Aligned Supervision
Yun-Chen Cheng, Chih-Pin Tan, Tzu-Hung Huang and 1 more
We introduce Piano2Pop, a music-expansion task that transforms piano MIDI into instrumental pop productions. Enabled by recent advances in music generation and polyphonic music transcription, our pseudo-supervised approach conditions a pretrained flow-matching model on piano rolls without aligned piano-pop supervision. We train on synthetic piano-instrumental pairs derived from pop recordings, comparing pair-free transcription, including function-selective (FST) and register-density (RDA) augmentations, with a pair-supervised piano-cover generator as pseudo-demo sources. On 476 testing real-world piano-cover/pop pairs, the pair-supervised approach achieves the best Frechet Audio Distance, Accompaniment Prompt Adherence, and spectral shape on real-piano inputs, while FST mitigates piano-heavy outputs in pair-free training and remains a promising alternative. All fine-tuned systems significantly outperform the zero-shot baselines, which suggests a role for task-specific modeling.
#04Oct 22, 2026
cs.LG
BeNice! Closing Looping's Inference-Memory Gap via KV-Sharing
Hayden Prairie, Jacob M. Ryan, Taylor Berg-Kirkpatrick and 1 more
Looped architectures scale quality while keeping parameter count fixed by repeatedly passing activations through the same block of layers. During inference, each recurrence generates independent KV-caches, causing memory to grow linearly. To address this challenge, prior work has proposed KV-sharing (i.e., sharing KV-caches across depth), finding that, in some cases, the KV-cache of the final recurrence can be shared with the earlier recurrences without quality loss, a property we denote as KV-shareability. However, the mechanisms underlying KV-shareability remain poorly understood, with even identically trained looped architectures not consistently exhibiting it. In this paper, we study how KV-shareability can be enabled in looped models. We propose a two-stage method: in the first stage, we use stochastic depth during pretraining, which induces contractive residual dynamics that drive representations toward a common limit across recurrences. In the second stage, we propose BeNice!, a post-training method that broadcasts the final recurrence's KV-cache into the first recurrence, training it to produce compatible residuals while preserving the original model's quality. As a result, BeNice! enables KV-shareability while matching standard finetuning's unshared validation perplexity. Using BeNice!, we show that KV-sharing is complementary to alternative KV-compression methods, composing with memory-efficient sequence mixers (e.g., multi-latent attention, Kimi delta attention) and low-precision KV-cache quantization (e.g., fp8, mxfp8, nvfp4). Finally, in simulated low-memory, long-context inference, KV-sharing improves cache hit rates by up to 31.4%, increases throughput by up to 23.6%, and reduces p90 time-to-first-token by up to 83.6%.
#05Oct 22, 2026
cs.LG
OP-Print: Tracing Membership Imprints in On-Policy Self-Distillation
Qi Li, Xinchao Wang
On-policy distillation has been widely adopted for alleviating the distribution mismatch of off-policy distillation. Self-distillation further removes the need for an external teacher by using the student's own outputs, enhanced with extra context or demonstrations, as supervision. This teacher-free design makes on-policy self-distillation practical, yet its privacy risks remain largely unexplored. In particular, using two coupled views of the same training example may strengthen its memorization. Motivated by this, we present the first study of membership inference attacks against on-policy self-distillation. We investigate both gray-box and black-box threat models and propose a unified attack framework, named OP-Print. OP-Print builds on our finding that the supervision imprint in on-policy self-distillation is sparse and structured, concentrating on uncertainty-sensitive correction sites rather than across the entire rollout. Exploiting this property, we construct attack signals tailored to the two access levels: in the gray-box setting, OP-Print directly aggregates the privileged teacher-student residual correction along the same rollout; in the black-box setting, it measures restart-based output-basin stability as an observable surrogate for the hidden correction process. Across diverse models and distillation schemes, all baseline attacks remain essentially at random guessing even under gray-box access, whereas OP-Print is broadly validated to be effective in both gray-box and black-box settings.