#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Same Behavior, Different Mechanism: What Finite Experiments Can Certify About Integrated Information
Linqian Wu, Diaoxuan He
Interpretability, AI auditing and assessments of machine consciousness increasingly rest on mechanism-level quantities: functionals of a system's causal transition law that describe how it computes, not what it outputs. Experiments see that law only through finite, partial and noisy interventions. We ask when such a quantity is identifiable from an experiment's access, continuous in the mechanism and certifiable from finite data, and answer exactly for a deliberately demanding case - the integrated information $\varphi$ of integrated information theory - in stochastic networks of four and five units with known ground truth. Behavior can be silent: a recurrent and a feed-forward network with identical input-output laws at their response delay carry 0.28 and 0 bits, yet internal recordings separate them within 4-53 trials. Partial access can be just as blind: in our examples, units left out of a one-step recording impose precision floors of 0.30-1.02 bits that no sample size lowers, and in all-but-self parity networks, recordings of any length see several hidden units only through the product of their fidelities - a symmetry that one intervention broke in exact checks. The measure has sharp edges: because $\varphi$ selects a partition, and the cause and effect it specifies, by one criterion and reports another, infinitesimal changes of mechanism that cross an edge change it by 25-100% at 99% of the edges we found in random networks, and about 1% of surrogate models that fit interventional data almost perfectly misreport it by more than 20%. One-sided claims survive: the same data certify a lower bound on both sides of an edge, and we prove $\varphi>1.004$ bits throughout a 64-dimensional region of mechanisms and certify it from about $10^7$ controlled transitions with false-certificate probability at most $α$. Measurability is thus a design question with computable answers.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Muir: Linear Attention with Sensitivity-Allocated Gating and Matched-Filter Readout
Tushaar Gangavarapu, Gil Tabak, Clemens JS Schaefer
Linear attention compresses context into a fixed-size key-value state for linear-time training and constant-memory inference. Gated delta-rule models decay this state and erase its prediction for an incoming key before writing a new value; Gated DeltaNet-2 (GDN-2) generalizes this with channel-wise decay and decoupled, full-rank erase and write gates. However, we show that state updates are far less sensitive to erasure than to writes: key activation and unit normalization concentrate key energy onto a sparse subset of channels, whereas value writes scale all channels, so the erase gate can be parameterized at lower rank. Furthermore, slow-decaying state rows accumulate much larger norms than fast rows, dominating unweighted readout and forcing stronger write-time erasure to suppress interference. Guided by this analysis, we introduce Muir, which fuses all gates into a sensitivity-allocated low-rank projection, re-weights state rows with a matched-filter readout gate, and reinvests the saved parameters in a wider feed-forward network. Because standard chunkwise algorithms become numerically unstable at the large chunk sizes needed to saturate wide matrix units, we design a parallel update for stable, efficient training. Across 166M-1.34B parameters, Muir lowers perplexity by 1.8-2.0% over GDN-2 and 2.5-3.6% over Transformer, raises commonsense accuracy by up to 1.9 points, and improves extractive recall over GDN-2. At 1.34B, Muir outperforms both baselines on multi-hop and multi-needle recall, extrapolates 2,560x from its 4K training length to 10M-token streams without perplexity drift, and maintains near-100% passkey retrieval to 1M tokens with static readout. Muir achieves these gains while matching GDN-2 throughput, reaching its 100B-token validation loss 1.2x faster, and training 2.7x faster than Transformer at 32K.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Module-Aware Optimization for Graph Neural Networks
Guy Hadad, Haggai Roitman, Moshe Eliasof and 1 more
Different optimizers impose different geometries on parameter updates. Adaptive methods such as Adam and AdamW use coordinate-wise updates, while matrix-aware optimizers such as Muon utilize weight-matrix structure through orthogonalized updates. For Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), however, the effective geometry of its weight matrices is shaped not only by its learned channel-mixing weights, but also by the graph-propagated representations it acts on. Thus, even if an update is well normalized as a matrix, its effect on the layer output can be amplified when applied to graph-propagated features. To address this gap, we introduce GraphMuon, a graph-aware optimizer that adapts Muon's matrix updates to the covariance structure of graph-propagated layer inputs. GraphMuon performs orthogonalization in a metric defined by these propagated representations and normalizes step sizes according to the update's induced effect on the layer representation. We show that theoretically, vanilla Muon can suffer from graph-induced update amplification, while our GraphMuon can mitigate this effect. As such, our GraphMuon yields a graph-metric analogue of Muon's polar update step. Empirically, GraphMuon achieves $1.32\times$-$2.42\times$ validation-loss time-to-target speedups over AdamW on three large-scale OGB benchmarks. Across 15 dataset-architecture configurations spanning node classification, inductive graph classification, and graph regression, it achieves lower time-to-target in 13 cases, while maintaining competitive or superior predictive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/guy-hadad/GraphMuon.