#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
User Embeddings are Superpositions of Interpretable Behavioral Modes
Jonathan Kozaczuk, Zheng Dong, Noyan Evirgen and 7 more
User embeddings are central components of modern recommendation, personalization, and behavioral modeling systems. Though these embeddings can compactly encode rich behavioral information, they are inherently dense and opaque, limiting interpretability. To address this gap, we argue that user embeddings can be understood as sparse superpositions of interpretable behavioral modes. This structure is directly predicted by generative models of user behavior for linear embeddings and extends approximately to deep-learning representations by the superposition hypothesis. Superimposed modes can naturally be recovered by sparse dictionary learning methods, such as sparse autoencoders (SAEs), and recovered modes can be automatically named and queried in natural language. We validate mode recovery against known ground truth on synthetic data, where SAEs recover modes better than classical sparse baselines, including on transformer-encoded embeddings. We then apply the method to classical and transformer-based user embeddings from two real-world datasets. We also show how the corresponding natural-language labels enable zero-shot audience retrieval and characterization over embeddings never trained on text. The framework is post-hoc and model-agnostic, requiring no modification to the upstream embedding system.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Interpretable many-body interaction laws for collective motion from few trajectories
Timon S. Gutleb
Models of collective motion usually reduce social interactions to pairwise forces, despite empirical evidence for many-body effects. We introduce the directional atomic cluster expansion (dACE), which adapts the atomic cluster expansion (ACE) of interatomic potentials to self-propelled agents. dACE provides a systematically improvable, exactly equivariant expansion of an agent's acceleration that splits uniquely into 1-, 2-, 3-body and higher contributions, along with a self term for the agent's own past motion that is fitted so that it does not absorb the interactions. On simulated collectives in two and three dimensions with known rules, dACE recovers the interaction law body order by body order from little data, while the neural model SocialNet, the current closest competitor, needs more data, has much larger errors on many-body or chiral rules and is restricted to 2D. On real data sets of tracked zebrafish and golden shiners, the laws learned by dACE agree better between disjoint halves of the data than SocialNet's. The learned laws are interpretable, and in the shiners the 3-body term opposes the pairwise response as neighbourhoods get dense. Finally, we show that next-step prediction accuracy mostly measures self-propulsion and noise rather than the interactions, and suggest more robust combinations of error measures for interaction learning.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.CL
Label-Wording Augmentation in a Typed-Decision Encoder: Gains on Unfamiliar Words, Not on Abbreviations or Codes
Vladimir Beskorovainyi
Typed-decision models score options that the caller supplies at request time, so their accuracy depends on label wording that the model's developer does not control. We compare two releases of a 307M-parameter multilingual cross-encoder, Ru-Jev, trained on thirteen Russian-language tasks; the later release adds an augmentation that presents labels in several surface forms. Holding questions fixed and varying only how eighteen routing labels are worded, we evaluate ten label vocabularies, produced by three separate processes and checked for overlap with the training data, with five candidates per question and, for eight of them, also with eighteen. On held-out vocabularies made of ordinary or borrowed words (English-derived jargon, office slang, department names), the augmented release is more accurate in every setting, by up to 0.24. Eleven of these fourteen gains survive a Holm correction (slang with eighteen candidates and descriptive sentences with five do not), and for jargon on all labels the label-level interval excludes zero in both settings. On abbreviations and opaque codes it gives no usable gain: on abbreviations it is not better, and worse on the clean slice, and on opaque codes both releases stay at or below chance once labels related to training options are removed. In most cells where accuracy rises, the risk-coverage area falls, but with eighteen candidates confident errors rise on jargon and slang. On two datasets neither release saw, accuracy moves by -8.4 and +5.6 points. We also report four evaluation hazards from comparing the two releases.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.CV
USB Gym: A Gymnasium Testbed for Closed-Loop Ultrasound View Matching
Thanapong Intharah, Zhichao Gao, Yiliang Liu and 1 more
Background and Objective: Our main goal is ultrasound guidance: moving a probe until its image matches a target view. Published methods for each part of a guide are evaluated in separate simulators. We asked whether these methods, combined into one guide, are good enough. Methods: We built USB Gym, a testbed whose standard engine simulates ultrasound from public patient CT, with a network drawing organ textures from CT labels. Its guide has three replaceable parts (slots), an organ segmenter, a controller and a reward, which received 20 published methods, each run on the same 60 episodes of six held-out patients. In each slot, a published method replaced ours only if detectably better on these patients. The better of this combination and our original guide on 20 new CTs is the benchmark baseline. A pose oracle, reading the exact probe pose available only in simulation, set the reference. The results below are exploratory. Results: On these CTs, the probe started on average 16.0 mm from the target view; the pose oracle brought it to 1.5 mm. Of the results known when the combination was fixed, only an image-similarity reward (SSIM) was slightly but detectably better, so the combination was our guide with that reward. This combination was the benchmark baseline, ending at 13.7 mm (16% of the oracle's progress). Conclusions: Combining untuned published methods with ours did not guide the probe near the target view; the task remains under-explored. The testbed accepts new methods; no guide was tested on hardware.