#01Nov 10, 2026
math.ST
Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Mixtures of Logistic Regressions
Muheng Li, Peize Zhang, Xin Bing
Mixtures of logistic regressions provide a flexible framework for modeling binary responses, extending standard logistic regression to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity while retaining an interpretable regression structure. In this paper, we study such models with an unspecified mixing distribution. We analyze a sieve nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and derive nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error of the resulting mixture regression function under both fixed and random designs. Our results reveal an explicit tradeoff between statistical estimation error and the approximation error induced by the sieve radius, from which we derive convergence rates under several tail conditions on the mixing distribution. For computation, we propose a finite-particle algorithm that approximates the sieve NPMLE by optimizing the locations and weights of a finitely supported mixing distribution. The method offers numerical advantages over existing algorithms and comes with rigorous convergence guarantees. For any fixed dataset, we establish global convergence of the likelihood to the restricted NPMLE value when the number of particles exceeds a finite threshold. When the true mixing distribution is finitely supported, we further establish uniform global convergence guarantees and derive error bounds that separate algorithmic and statistical errors. Our analysis also yields a denoising bound for the mixing distribution and an identifiability result that complements existing results in the literature.
#02Nov 10, 2026
cs.LG
Emergent Biological Capabilities in a Foundation Model for Molecular Interactions
Adi Mashiach
Foundation models trained on large unlabeled corpora develop emergent capabilities, tasks that go beyond the training objective. We extend this paradigm to multimodal biology with Bonbon, a foundation model for molecular interactions trained on approximately 3.2 trillion tokens of paired protein-ligand sequences. From a single representation space, Bonbon exhibits three zero-shot emergent capabilities at hierarchical levels of resolution: functional (mechanism of action), residue (binding site localization, including orthosteric/allosteric discrimination), and bond (covalent versus non-covalent engagement). All three capabilities generalize to out-of-distribution complexes. Bonbon was trained on protein-ligand sequences alone, without any task-specific supervision and without structural coordinates. We conducted controlled scaling experiments across six model scales from 42M to 1.6B parameters; every capability evaluated shows a sharp jump at the largest scale on continuous metrics, even as pretraining loss decreases smoothly. This demonstrates that loss-based scaling laws alone are insufficient to predict when zero-shot emergent capabilities become available. The capabilities reported here emerge after training at a 1:2,000 parameter-to-token ratio to accommodate the sparsity of paired biological interaction data. The same frozen representations achieve state-of-the-art binding and affinity prediction at five orders of magnitude greater speed than co-folding methods. In prospective wet-lab validation across nine disease targets spanning seven protein families, Bonbon achieves a 61.5% dose-response hit rate on de novo compounds, yielding structurally novel molecules not previously reported to inhibit these proteins, including for out-of-distribution targets.
#03Nov 10, 2026
cs.AI
ReTrace: Distilling Tool-Using Agents into Planner-Free Workflows
Kaiyuan Hou, Yang Ping Kuo, Indranil Bhattacharya and 6 more
Business process automation runs the same Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) again and again on new inputs. Large Language Model (LLM) agents can follow an SOP written in natural language, but they call an LLM to choose every step of every run, which adds latency and cost at scale. We present ReTrace, which turns an SOP and a few logged agent runs into a reusable workflow in which code, not an LLM, selects the next step. The agent's reasoning, the explanation it writes with each tool call, often states why it took an action; the tool calls alone do not. ReTrace extracts the condition behind each step, merges these conditions across runs into a compact rule document, and generates an executable workflow from it. Only this last stage depends on the platform, so rule documents can be compiled for different orchestration platforms. On $79$ procedures from our production platform, ReTrace workflows reach $93.8\%$ completion, against $96.8\%$ for the agent, at $24\%$ lower cost per task. On $τ^2$-Bench, they reach $75.8\%$ task success (agent: $80.6\%$) and run in $1.3$s instead of $170$s; three rounds of repair on training failures lift $k{=}2$ workflows from $66.7\%$ to $81.2\%$. On eight SOP-Bench procedures, ReTrace without repair trails few-shot generation ($80.6\%$ vs. $83.6\%$), but repair from labeled training failures lifts it to $87.8\%$ at $0.40$s per task, compared to $85.5\%$ in $46.6$s for the agent.
#04Nov 10, 2026
cs.RO
TanCRAFT: Context-Reasoned Anticipatory Feedback for Assembly Tasks
Sassan Mokhtar, Lars Doorenbos, Marius Bock and 4 more
Preventing human error in physical assembly tasks requires assistance systems that can intervene before mistakes are made. This is especially challenging in settings where users are free to choose the construction order and correctness depends on the evolving assembly rather than a fixed next step. We present TanCRAFT, a four-stage real-time predictive assistance system that tracks the scene state, reasons about the current partial assembly, forecasts the near-future motion of manipulated pieces, and intervenes when the predicted placement is incompatible with the target. We instantiate our framework and confirm its effectiveness in a controlled tangram assembly task through offline benchmarks and a within-subject user study. Our findings show that the predictive feedback significantly reduces mistakes relative to unguided and reactive sessions, while yielding the lowest mean perceived workload and shortest mean completion time. Overall, these results demonstrate the value of predictive feedback for error prevention and provide a step toward cost-aware assistance for automation and human-robot workcells.
#05Nov 10, 2026
cs.CV
Measuring Robustness and Efficiency in a Connectome-Constrained Fly Visual System Model: Linking an Adversarial and a Perceptual Illusion
Alexandre Garcia-Duran, Alejandro Rodriguez-Garcia, Manuel Molano-Mazón and 3 more
Biological visual systems compute reliably under tight metabolic and wiring constraints, whereas artificial vision systems consume far more energy and can be sensitive to adversarial perturbations. Whether networks with brain-like wiring are more robust at lower computational cost is unclear. We address this by benchmarking a task-optimized, continuous-time recurrent neural network of the fly visual system constrained by its synaptic connectome (FlyNet) against artificial neural networks. We compare it against CNNs, RAFT, and continuous-time recurrent neural networks without detailed connectome constraints (sCTRNN, CTRNN) on a collision-detection task within a differentiable 3D rendering pipeline. FlyNet is adversarially vulnerable but, relative to its compute, more robust to common video corruptions than RAFT, while using up to five orders of magnitude fewer FLOPs. The CTRNNs remain more robust than FlyNet across almost all tested perturbations, suggesting that connectome constraints benefit efficiency, through their low edge count, over robustness. Recurrence improves robustness to white-box attacks in RAFT and temporal context improves robustness to common corruptions. FlyNet's position and velocity representations degrade under adversarial textures but recover under counterfactual textures that restore correct classification while staying equally far from training, ruling out unfamiliar textures as the cause of failure. The reverse-phi illusion similarly disrupts these representations and inverts the same low-level motion statistic as the adversarial textures. Optimizing this input statistic alone, without access to the network, suffices to induce classification failure, attributing both perturbations to the same circuit vulnerability. Connectome-constrained models can thus surface adversarial failure mechanisms as testable hypotheses about biological perceptual vulnerabilities.