#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.CV
USB Gym: A Gymnasium Testbed for Closed-Loop Ultrasound View Matching
Thanapong Intharah, Zhichao Gao, Yiliang Liu and 1 more
Background and Objective: Our main goal is ultrasound guidance: moving a probe until its image matches a target view. Published methods for each part of a guide are evaluated in separate simulators. We asked whether these methods, combined into one guide, are good enough. Methods: We built USB Gym, a testbed whose standard engine simulates ultrasound from public patient CT, with a network drawing organ textures from CT labels. Its guide has three replaceable parts (slots), an organ segmenter, a controller and a reward, which received 20 published methods, each run on the same 60 episodes of six held-out patients. In each slot, a published method replaced ours only if detectably better on these patients. The better of this combination and our original guide on 20 new CTs is the benchmark baseline. A pose oracle, reading the exact probe pose available only in simulation, set the reference. The results below are exploratory. Results: On these CTs, the probe started on average 16.0 mm from the target view; the pose oracle brought it to 1.5 mm. Of the results known when the combination was fixed, only an image-similarity reward (SSIM) was slightly but detectably better, so the combination was our guide with that reward. This combination was the benchmark baseline, ending at 13.7 mm (16% of the oracle's progress). Conclusions: Combining untuned published methods with ours did not guide the probe near the target view; the task remains under-explored. The testbed accepts new methods; no guide was tested on hardware.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.RO
SHORE: Stability-Hybrid On-Policy Reinforcement Learning for Online Bin Packing
Chang Shi, Ann Majewicz Fey
Online 3D bin packing with a processing buffer requires choosing which box to pack, its orientation, and its placement while keeping the stack stable under unknown future arrivals. A collapse ends the episode and forfeits the remaining volume. Existing methods use geometric rules or hard stability masks, limiting how risk can influence the joint choice of box, orientation, and placement. We propose Stability-Hybrid On-Policy Reinforcement Learning (SHORE), which combines a learned stability probability of a placement with an on-policy estimate of its return conditional on stability. A 3D U-Net learns stability from executed outcomes and simulated alternatives, revealing outcomes of actions underrepresented in early rollouts. A discrete on-policy actor--critic uses stability predictions in both its action values and policy prior, with gates that limit the effect of an untrained or changing model. In deployment, SHORE does not require additional search or simulation overhead. In Isaac Gym, SHORE reaches 73\% space utilization by 0.4M environment steps, while the same learner without stability modeling reaches that level at about 1M. On the expanded 60-box set, SHORE achieves 0.734 space utilization versus 0.588 for the GOPT state-of-the-art baseline, with a higher placement-failure frequency (1.03\% vs. 0.63\%), trading more risk for greater packed volume. The results show faster learning and higher utilization on the more demanding realistic box arrival set. Ablations suggest that simulated alternatives provide useful early supervision, while executed outcomes alone sustain later performance. We also demonstrate the method on a real robot to verify the simplicity of integrating the method to real bin packing pipelines.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Interpretable many-body interaction laws for collective motion from few trajectories
Timon S. Gutleb
Models of collective motion usually reduce social interactions to pairwise forces, despite empirical evidence for many-body effects. We introduce the directional atomic cluster expansion (dACE), which adapts the atomic cluster expansion (ACE) of interatomic potentials to self-propelled agents. dACE provides a systematically improvable, exactly equivariant expansion of an agent's acceleration that splits uniquely into 1-, 2-, 3-body and higher contributions, along with a self term for the agent's own past motion that is fitted so that it does not absorb the interactions. On simulated collectives in two and three dimensions with known rules, dACE recovers the interaction law body order by body order from little data, while the neural model SocialNet, the current closest competitor, needs more data, has much larger errors on many-body or chiral rules and is restricted to 2D. On real data sets of tracked zebrafish and golden shiners, the laws learned by dACE agree better between disjoint halves of the data than SocialNet's. The learned laws are interpretable, and in the shiners the 3-body term opposes the pairwise response as neighbourhoods get dense. Finally, we show that next-step prediction accuracy mostly measures self-propulsion and noise rather than the interactions, and suggest more robust combinations of error measures for interaction learning.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Unpacking the Compute Efficiency of Strong-to-Weak OPD against GRPO
Zeyu Leo Liu, Yang Li, Bo Pang and 7 more
On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own rollouts under a frozen teacher's per-token supervision. Does this dense signal reduce the training FLOPs needed to reach a target accuracy compared with reinforcement learning? We systematically compare vanilla reverse-KL OPD with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) across task difficulty, student and teacher size, domain, and optimization choices, measuring held-out accuracy against training FLOPs. With an external post-trained teacher, OPD generally loses to GRPO in accuracy per training FLOP at matched settings, even when the teacher is further trained with GRPO, and often suffers response-length inflation. Yet a different teacher changes the picture: when the teacher is the student's own GRPO checkpoint, OPD recovers that checkpoint's accuracy on math with $50\times$ fewer distillation FLOPs than GRPO needs to reach the same accuracy. Following the same teacher setting, we consistently observe this high efficiency with a larger student, on code, and in a second model family. On a single domain, however, the GRPO checkpoint is already the desired model, so distilling it adds to total compute. Across domains, separate GRPO checkpoints hold different capabilities, and no single checkpoint serves every domain. Multi-teacher OPD (DeepSeek-AI, 2026) consolidates per-domain GRPO experts into a single student that matches each expert's accuracy, with the distillation stage costing only 5.2% (on 2 domains) and 8.0% (on 4 domains) of the specialist training FLOPs. Counting specialist training and distillation together, this pipeline reaches joint GRPO's performance on the 2-domain mix with 42.0% fewer total FLOPs.