#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Module-Aware Optimization for Graph Neural Networks
Guy Hadad, Haggai Roitman, Moshe Eliasof and 1 more
Different optimizers impose different geometries on parameter updates. Adaptive methods such as Adam and AdamW use coordinate-wise updates, while matrix-aware optimizers such as Muon utilize weight-matrix structure through orthogonalized updates. For Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), however, the effective geometry of its weight matrices is shaped not only by its learned channel-mixing weights, but also by the graph-propagated representations it acts on. Thus, even if an update is well normalized as a matrix, its effect on the layer output can be amplified when applied to graph-propagated features. To address this gap, we introduce GraphMuon, a graph-aware optimizer that adapts Muon's matrix updates to the covariance structure of graph-propagated layer inputs. GraphMuon performs orthogonalization in a metric defined by these propagated representations and normalizes step sizes according to the update's induced effect on the layer representation. We show that theoretically, vanilla Muon can suffer from graph-induced update amplification, while our GraphMuon can mitigate this effect. As such, our GraphMuon yields a graph-metric analogue of Muon's polar update step. Empirically, GraphMuon achieves $1.32\times$-$2.42\times$ validation-loss time-to-target speedups over AdamW on three large-scale OGB benchmarks. Across 15 dataset-architecture configurations spanning node classification, inductive graph classification, and graph regression, it achieves lower time-to-target in 13 cases, while maintaining competitive or superior predictive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/guy-hadad/GraphMuon.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Synthesis of Ovarian Cancer Multi-Omics Datasets: A Biology-Informed Evaluation Framework
Déborah Boyenval, Alina Malyutina, Jaana Oikkonen and 2 more
Paired multi-omic cancer cohorts are costly to assemble and difficult to share, motivating synthetic cohorts as a complementary resource. As generative model development accelerates, we shift the focus from proposing yet another architecture to defining evaluation criteria that determine whether synthetic data preserve biologically relevant structure. We introduce a biology-informed and patient-disjoint framework for evaluating the generation of paired RNA expression and copy-number variation (CNV) profiles, and apply it to the longitudinal DECIDER high-grade serous ovarian cancer cohort. The framework assesses modality-specific fidelity and coherence between RNA and CNV pairs using agreement between real training and held-out data as a reference, alongside complementary training-data proximity diagnostics. We adapt three multi-omic integration architectures based on variational autoencoders to generate paired profiles. The model leading several fidelity and coherence measures also shows the strongest training-data proximity. The protocol and case study offer the community a reference for comparing future multi-omic generators.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Unpacking the Compute Efficiency of Strong-to-Weak OPD against GRPO
Zeyu Leo Liu, Yang Li, Bo Pang and 7 more
On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own rollouts under a frozen teacher's per-token supervision. Does this dense signal reduce the training FLOPs needed to reach a target accuracy compared with reinforcement learning? We systematically compare vanilla reverse-KL OPD with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) across task difficulty, student and teacher size, domain, and optimization choices, measuring held-out accuracy against training FLOPs. With an external post-trained teacher, OPD generally loses to GRPO in accuracy per training FLOP at matched settings, even when the teacher is further trained with GRPO, and often suffers response-length inflation. Yet a different teacher changes the picture: when the teacher is the student's own GRPO checkpoint, OPD recovers that checkpoint's accuracy on math with $50\times$ fewer distillation FLOPs than GRPO needs to reach the same accuracy. Following the same teacher setting, we consistently observe this high efficiency with a larger student, on code, and in a second model family. On a single domain, however, the GRPO checkpoint is already the desired model, so distilling it adds to total compute. Across domains, separate GRPO checkpoints hold different capabilities, and no single checkpoint serves every domain. Multi-teacher OPD (DeepSeek-AI, 2026) consolidates per-domain GRPO experts into a single student that matches each expert's accuracy, with the distillation stage costing only 5.2% (on 2 domains) and 8.0% (on 4 domains) of the specialist training FLOPs. Counting specialist training and distillation together, this pipeline reaches joint GRPO's performance on the 2-domain mix with 42.0% fewer total FLOPs.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Adversarial Training with Large Step Sizes: Implicit Bias, Optimization, and Sharpness
Yi Feng, Andrea Paudice
Adversarial Training (AT) is an important method for improving model robustness. We study the dynamics of deterministic Gradient Descent (GD) in AT. Most existing works in this direction focus on the small or vanishing step sizes regime, where GD resembles a continuous-time flow. However, such step sizes can make training inefficient and are rarely used in practice. In this paper, we study the AT dynamics of GD with large constant step sizes. We first study GD in adversarial linear logistic regression, focusing on two aspects: where the model parameters converge (implicit bias) and how quickly the losses decrease (optimization). We then turn to neural networks training and study how the sharpness of losses evolve during AT. Our results advance the understanding of the behaviors of GD with large step sizes in AT and highlight three key differences from its behavior in Standard Training (ST): (i) the implicit bias gap between AT and ST, previously established only for small step sizes, persists for arbitrarily large constant step sizes, (ii) different from ST, there is no uniform rate of convergence for the optimization error in AT, and (iii) sharpness can exhibit two-stage dynamics that differ from the Edge-of-Stability behavior observed in ST.