#01Nov 5, 2026
stat.ML
Unifying Central Flow, Rod Flow, and the Edge Coupling
Eric Regis, Sinho Chewi
At the edge of stability, the iterates of gradient descent oscillate along the sharp directions of the Hessian. This poses a significant challenge for continuous-time models as the usual continuous-time approximation -- the gradient flow -- admits no oscillations. Several continuous-time models have been proposed to capture the behavior at the edge of stability, among them central flow and rod flow. Although both models can be interpreted as performing a coarse-graining in time, the connection between them remains poorly understood. Here we show that both flows can be derived from a third object, the edge coupling: a functional on consecutive iterates whose critical points are the fixed points and period-two orbits of gradient descent. It is revealed that the two flows correspond to coarse-grainings at different time scales. Rod flow coarse-grains over only the fastest time scale, while central flow coarse-grains over both the fast and intermediate time scales. Furthermore, using the edge coupling, we derive rod flows and central flows for momentum methods such as heavy ball and Adam. We verify the derived flows experimentally on representative neural network architectures, where they track the discrete iterates throughout all phases of training -- including the transition from the stable regime to the edge of stability.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Towards interpreting any residual stream direction by scaling activation inversion
Celeste De Schamphelaere, Juan J. Vazquez, Ari Spiesberger and 4 more
To interpret a direction in a language model's residual stream, we can look for text that strongly activates it. But when such text is found by scanning a corpus, it is limited to what that corpus contains. We develop Maximally-Activating Example Metamodels (MAEMs), language models which map residual stream directions from a subject model to text exemplars that strongly activate those directions. Our objective is to maximise the cosine similarity of a supplied residual stream direction with the activations of the text generated by the MAEM. This label-free RL objective helps to scale MAEMs on diverse sources of residual stream directions. Empirically, we find the resultant metamodel produces informative exemplars: a Qwen3.6-27B MAEM inverts held-out activations better than corpus search or a natural-language autoencoder (NLA), beats corpus search (at 10M tokens) on a majority of held-out languages/domains, and activates 89% of held-out SAE features. It also identifies concepts behind steering vectors about as well as NLAs, recovers the payloads of LoRA backdoors more often than corpus search, and can even verbalise some model workspace inner monologue. Unlike explanations produced by other metamodels (e.g. NLAs), MAEM exemplars can be verified with a forward pass on the subject model, making the MAEM objective a grounded alternative for scaling the training of metamodels.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Same Behavior, Different Mechanism: What Finite Experiments Can Certify About Integrated Information
Linqian Wu, Diaoxuan He
Interpretability, AI auditing and assessments of machine consciousness increasingly rest on mechanism-level quantities: functionals of a system's causal transition law that describe how it computes, not what it outputs. Experiments see that law only through finite, partial and noisy interventions. We ask when such a quantity is identifiable from an experiment's access, continuous in the mechanism and certifiable from finite data, and answer exactly for a deliberately demanding case - the integrated information $\varphi$ of integrated information theory - in stochastic networks of four and five units with known ground truth. Behavior can be silent: a recurrent and a feed-forward network with identical input-output laws at their response delay carry 0.28 and 0 bits, yet internal recordings separate them within 4-53 trials. Partial access can be just as blind: in our examples, units left out of a one-step recording impose precision floors of 0.30-1.02 bits that no sample size lowers, and in all-but-self parity networks, recordings of any length see several hidden units only through the product of their fidelities - a symmetry that one intervention broke in exact checks. The measure has sharp edges: because $\varphi$ selects a partition, and the cause and effect it specifies, by one criterion and reports another, infinitesimal changes of mechanism that cross an edge change it by 25-100% at 99% of the edges we found in random networks, and about 1% of surrogate models that fit interventional data almost perfectly misreport it by more than 20%. One-sided claims survive: the same data certify a lower bound on both sides of an edge, and we prove $\varphi>1.004$ bits throughout a 64-dimensional region of mechanisms and certify it from about $10^7$ controlled transitions with false-certificate probability at most $α$. Measurability is thus a design question with computable answers.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Synthesis of Ovarian Cancer Multi-Omics Datasets: A Biology-Informed Evaluation Framework
Déborah Boyenval, Alina Malyutina, Jaana Oikkonen and 2 more
Paired multi-omic cancer cohorts are costly to assemble and difficult to share, motivating synthetic cohorts as a complementary resource. As generative model development accelerates, we shift the focus from proposing yet another architecture to defining evaluation criteria that determine whether synthetic data preserve biologically relevant structure. We introduce a biology-informed and patient-disjoint framework for evaluating the generation of paired RNA expression and copy-number variation (CNV) profiles, and apply it to the longitudinal DECIDER high-grade serous ovarian cancer cohort. The framework assesses modality-specific fidelity and coherence between RNA and CNV pairs using agreement between real training and held-out data as a reference, alongside complementary training-data proximity diagnostics. We adapt three multi-omic integration architectures based on variational autoencoders to generate paired profiles. The model leading several fidelity and coherence measures also shows the strongest training-data proximity. The protocol and case study offer the community a reference for comparing future multi-omic generators.