#01Nov 7, 2026
cs.AI
Approximate Recall, Approximate Forecasts: Recall as a Diagnostic for LLM Forecasting Errors
Prashanth Bhaskara, Shubhaankar Gupta, Seojoon Yeon
Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit approximate recall: they retain coarse associations about past events while losing fidelity on specific details. Past research on LLMs has quantified different models' forecasting ability in real-world events using prediction markets, but has not studied how losing said fidelity impacts their forecasting abilities. For example: while an LLM correctly recalls that the answer to: ''Did Anna Sawai win the Best Drama Actress in the 76th Emmy Awards?'' is ''Yes,'' it incorrectly states the event date as September 22 rather than September 15. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric called the Recall Fidelity Score to study how imprecision in internalized knowledge propagates to forecasting capability on future events. On resolved historical markets, we find that higher local recall fidelity around semantically similar past events predicts lower forecasting error on resolved markets, and the same signal predicts smaller distance from open markets prices.
#02Nov 7, 2026
cs.LG
CoupledFlow: One-Step Neural Operators for Coupled Multi-Physics PDEs
Trong Khiem Tran, Minh Long Bui, Phi Le Nguyen and 4 more
This paper introduces COUPLED FLOW, a new neural operator learning framework for multi-physics PDE systems that captures the co-evolution of multiple physical processes by modeling their cross-process interactions. Unlike existing neural operator methods that primarily target single-physics settings, COUPLED FLOW employs a novel structure-constrained flow matching algorithm to learn process- specific mean velocity fields conditioned on the full multi-physics state. This enables fast and accurate one-step prediction of coupled PDE systems that would otherwise require expensive numerical simulations. A key challenge in training COUPLED FLOW however lies in sampling structure-constrained conditional flow interpolants that capture cross-process correlations and serve as training examples for flow matching. To address this challenge, we derive a multi-physics mean-flow consistency identity that characterizes cross-process interactions and defines the structure-constrained mean-flow matching loss. To provide informative training samples for flow matching with this loss, we develop a principled method for sampling correlated conditional interpolants based on posterior multi-output Gaus- sian processes, which capture richer cross-process correlations than the commonly used endpoint-conditioned linear interpolants. We also establish a theoretical re- sult showing that the Wasserstein-2 distance between the predicted and oracle PDE solution distributions is upper-bounded in terms of the structure-constrained flow matching loss and the smoothness of the learned flow. Experiments across diverse coupled PDE benchmarks demonstrate that COUPLED FLOW consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art neural operators and generative PDE solvers.
#03Nov 7, 2026
cs.CV
Semantic Synthesis over Brute-Force Search: LLM-Guided Transformation Design for Efficient Learning
Usha Shrestha, Radu Timofte, Dmitry Ignatov
Data transformation pipelines shape the training distribution in computer vision, but designing them is a computationally expensive problem. We investigate whether large language models can enable efficient discovery by synthesizing executable transformation programs outside predefined augmentation spaces. We compare nine strategies under a unified training protocol, including standard augmentation policies, brute-force search, direct code generation with two LLMs, and performance-guided generation using LLMs fine-tuned on accuracy-ordered transformation pairs. When the best candidates are retrained for 20 epochs, LLM-generated transformation programs lead on every dataset, reaching 0.8877 accuracy on CIFAR-10, 0.5825 on CIFAR-100, and 0.9588 on SVHN, surpassing brute-force search over 6,000 candidates. The best transform on CIFAR-10 and SVHN comes from a fine-tuned generator using 270 candidates, while the best on CIFAR-100 comes from an off-the-shelf generator using only 10. This needs 22x fewer candidate evaluations in the generation step and 600x fewer for off-the-shelf generations, relative to brute-force search. Beyond transformation discovery, we analyze the reliability of the reduced-budget evaluation commonly used for augmentation search. Correlating one-epoch selection scores with 20-epoch outcomes reveals strong, weak, and absent predictive relationships depending on the dataset and architecture, with correlations ranging from 0.756 to near zero. A positive control indicates that range restriction alone is unlikely to explain the low correlations. Our results indicate that semantic synthesis with code LLMs provides an efficient alternative to search-based transformation discovery and highlight the importance of validating evaluation fidelity when optimizing data transformations.
#04Nov 7, 2026
cs.CV
Beyond Real or Fake: A Dual-Channel Authenticity and Reasoning Protocol for Photographic Assessment
Xiaoxiao Li, Ruinan Jin, Lili Meng and 3 more
Forensic verification has converged on a binary "real vs. fake" label that confates fully synthetic, tampered, and AI-retouched images despite their very different consequences. We argue that GenAI manipulations decompose along two complementary channels: a camera channel of sensor fingerprints (destroyed by neural processing), and a semantic channel of scene-level coherence (disrupted by content edits). Each manipulation type leaves a distinctive two-channel signature. We instantiate this taxonomy in 2CAP (2-Channel Authenticity Protocol), pairing a contrastively-trained camera encoder with a frozen semantic encoder to serve two applications on a shared backbone: (i) four-class authenticity classification via cross-attention fusion with learnable reliability weights; and (ii) evidence generation, where an authentic image serves as a reference for a query and the two encoders produce per-channel alignment scores together with a patch-level saliency map. These signals are supplied as privileged context to a frozen Vision-Language Model (VLM) through an Observe-Generate-Refine loop, yielding explanations with localization without forensic fine-tuning. On a multi-source benchmark, 2CAP attains the best classification performance, including strong retouching detection where existing methods fail, and improves explanation quality.
#05Nov 7, 2026
cs.LG
Stochastic Port-Hamiltonian Gaussian Processes for Learning from Noisy Dynamics on Lie Groups
Thribhuvan Rapolu, Luke McLennan, Chandrajit Bajaj
Learning predictive models for dynamics is difficult because observations are often sparse and noisy, while the underlying dynamics evolve on nonlinear configuration manifolds and are affected by environmental dissipation and stochastic disturbances. Standard neural dynamics models can fit short-term trajectories but often violate physical structure, accumulate error over long horizons, or rely on parameterizations that introduce singularities such as gimbal lock. We introduce LieSPHGP, a stochastic Gaussian-process framework for learning rigid body dynamics with port-Hamiltonian structure and stability-aware robustness. LieSPHGP represents motion on Lie groups and Lie algebras, enabling coordinate-consistent optimization without singular parameterizations. Learned mass, potential energy, dissipation, and control components retain physical roles and a separate diffusion term represents stochastic forcing. Each component is modeled by Matérn kernel Gaussian processes which capture uncertainty induced by noisy observations. To improve physical validity, Lie group exponential map updates preserve rotational constraints, while positive-definite damping ensures nonnegative deterministic energy dissipation. The implicit-explicit integrator additionally provides unconditional stability for the frozen linear damping subsystem. The resulting model learns predictive dynamics that are robust to noise, respect rigid body geometry, and capture both intrinsic motion and environmental dissipation. Experiments on various noisy rigid body benchmarks show improved prediction accuracy, stronger long-horizon stability, and better satisfaction of manifold constraints compared with neural dynamics baselines. Code, data and interactive results are available on the project website: https://thribhuvanrapolu.github.io/liesphgp/