#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Module-Aware Optimization for Graph Neural Networks
Guy Hadad, Haggai Roitman, Moshe Eliasof and 1 more
Different optimizers impose different geometries on parameter updates. Adaptive methods such as Adam and AdamW use coordinate-wise updates, while matrix-aware optimizers such as Muon utilize weight-matrix structure through orthogonalized updates. For Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), however, the effective geometry of its weight matrices is shaped not only by its learned channel-mixing weights, but also by the graph-propagated representations it acts on. Thus, even if an update is well normalized as a matrix, its effect on the layer output can be amplified when applied to graph-propagated features. To address this gap, we introduce GraphMuon, a graph-aware optimizer that adapts Muon's matrix updates to the covariance structure of graph-propagated layer inputs. GraphMuon performs orthogonalization in a metric defined by these propagated representations and normalizes step sizes according to the update's induced effect on the layer representation. We show that theoretically, vanilla Muon can suffer from graph-induced update amplification, while our GraphMuon can mitigate this effect. As such, our GraphMuon yields a graph-metric analogue of Muon's polar update step. Empirically, GraphMuon achieves $1.32\times$-$2.42\times$ validation-loss time-to-target speedups over AdamW on three large-scale OGB benchmarks. Across 15 dataset-architecture configurations spanning node classification, inductive graph classification, and graph regression, it achieves lower time-to-target in 13 cases, while maintaining competitive or superior predictive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/guy-hadad/GraphMuon.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Adversarial Training with Large Step Sizes: Implicit Bias, Optimization, and Sharpness
Yi Feng, Andrea Paudice
Adversarial Training (AT) is an important method for improving model robustness. We study the dynamics of deterministic Gradient Descent (GD) in AT. Most existing works in this direction focus on the small or vanishing step sizes regime, where GD resembles a continuous-time flow. However, such step sizes can make training inefficient and are rarely used in practice. In this paper, we study the AT dynamics of GD with large constant step sizes. We first study GD in adversarial linear logistic regression, focusing on two aspects: where the model parameters converge (implicit bias) and how quickly the losses decrease (optimization). We then turn to neural networks training and study how the sharpness of losses evolve during AT. Our results advance the understanding of the behaviors of GD with large step sizes in AT and highlight three key differences from its behavior in Standard Training (ST): (i) the implicit bias gap between AT and ST, previously established only for small step sizes, persists for arbitrarily large constant step sizes, (ii) different from ST, there is no uniform rate of convergence for the optimization error in AT, and (iii) sharpness can exhibit two-stage dynamics that differ from the Edge-of-Stability behavior observed in ST.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.CV
USB Gym: A Gymnasium Testbed for Closed-Loop Ultrasound View Matching
Thanapong Intharah, Zhichao Gao, Yiliang Liu and 1 more
Background and Objective: Our main goal is ultrasound guidance: moving a probe until its image matches a target view. Published methods for each part of a guide are evaluated in separate simulators. We asked whether these methods, combined into one guide, are good enough. Methods: We built USB Gym, a testbed whose standard engine simulates ultrasound from public patient CT, with a network drawing organ textures from CT labels. Its guide has three replaceable parts (slots), an organ segmenter, a controller and a reward, which received 20 published methods, each run on the same 60 episodes of six held-out patients. In each slot, a published method replaced ours only if detectably better on these patients. The better of this combination and our original guide on 20 new CTs is the benchmark baseline. A pose oracle, reading the exact probe pose available only in simulation, set the reference. The results below are exploratory. Results: On these CTs, the probe started on average 16.0 mm from the target view; the pose oracle brought it to 1.5 mm. Of the results known when the combination was fixed, only an image-similarity reward (SSIM) was slightly but detectably better, so the combination was our guide with that reward. This combination was the benchmark baseline, ending at 13.7 mm (16% of the oracle's progress). Conclusions: Combining untuned published methods with ours did not guide the probe near the target view; the task remains under-explored. The testbed accepts new methods; no guide was tested on hardware.