#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Hybrid Machine Learning for Imbalanced Landing-Phase Safety Event Prediction from Flight Data
Taha Asghar, Bilal Mufti, Syed Qasim Zaheer and 1 more
Landing-phase safety-event prediction requires the detection of rare abnormal approaches within strongly imbalanced multivariate flight data. Capturing coupled temporal behavior while distinguishing event-specific signatures across airport operating contexts remains a central modeling challenge. This study proposes an interpretable hybrid feature-fusion framework for multiclass landing-phase safety-event prediction. A long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder trained on nominal flight windows characterizes deviations from routine approach behavior. Its continuous reconstruction-error descriptor is fused with parameter-specific statistical flight-history features and supplied to a class-weighted XGBoost classifier to distinguish Normal, Speed High, Path High, and Flaps Late windows. The framework is evaluated using 53,750 NASA DASHlink approach windows from three arrival airports. Pooled and airport-specific learning strategies are compared alongside component-level benchmarks, repeated pipeline retraining, and feature-attribution analysis. The results demonstrate strong class-balanced detection, with mean macro recall above 0.90 across all airports under repeated partitioning and retraining. Component comparisons establish the importance of class weighting and show that continuous feature fusion outperforms reconstruction-error-only and hard-gate alternatives. Airport-level comparisons reveal benefits from local specialization at the two airports with larger datasets and from pooled training at the airport with the smallest dataset. Feature attributions associate predictions with operationally relevant vertical-path, configuration, speed, and approach-context variables. The framework provides an interpretable approach to rare-event detection and practical guidance for adapting flight-data monitoring models to airport-level data availability.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Towards interpreting any residual stream direction by scaling activation inversion
Celeste De Schamphelaere, Juan J. Vazquez, Ari Spiesberger and 4 more
To interpret a direction in a language model's residual stream, we can look for text that strongly activates it. But when such text is found by scanning a corpus, it is limited to what that corpus contains. We develop Maximally-Activating Example Metamodels (MAEMs), language models which map residual stream directions from a subject model to text exemplars that strongly activate those directions. Our objective is to maximise the cosine similarity of a supplied residual stream direction with the activations of the text generated by the MAEM. This label-free RL objective helps to scale MAEMs on diverse sources of residual stream directions. Empirically, we find the resultant metamodel produces informative exemplars: a Qwen3.6-27B MAEM inverts held-out activations better than corpus search or a natural-language autoencoder (NLA), beats corpus search (at 10M tokens) on a majority of held-out languages/domains, and activates 89% of held-out SAE features. It also identifies concepts behind steering vectors about as well as NLAs, recovers the payloads of LoRA backdoors more often than corpus search, and can even verbalise some model workspace inner monologue. Unlike explanations produced by other metamodels (e.g. NLAs), MAEM exemplars can be verified with a forward pass on the subject model, making the MAEM objective a grounded alternative for scaling the training of metamodels.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Data-driven discovery of intrinsic Lie point symmetries of differential equation systems
Ilker Gurcan, Kadir Ustun, Ramazan Gokberk Cinbis
Discovering continuous symmetries directly from differential-equation data can reveal geometric structure for model reduction and scientific machine learning without symbolic determining equations or a closed-form representation of the governing system. We formulate intrinsic Lie point-symmetry discovery as an operator-theoretic problem on sampled jet-space data. Admissible generators are identified from a sampled determining operator and separated from redundant, solution-dependent, and geometrically trivial directions. The framework combines prolongation, sequential subspace restrictions, and a fixed nonlinear dictionary linear in trainable coefficients. A rank-stabilization preflight test diagnoses systems whose represented intrinsic symmetry algebra does not stabilize under dictionary refinement. On a controlled differential-equation benchmark with an analytically known 11-dimensional represented intrinsic symmetry algebra, the method recovers the complete represented generator set, reproduces its Lie-bracket structure to numerical precision, and approximates a known generator beyond the training domain. Here we show that explicit intrinsic continuous-symmetry generators can be recovered from data obtained from exact or approximate differential systems.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Interpretable many-body interaction laws for collective motion from few trajectories
Timon S. Gutleb
Models of collective motion usually reduce social interactions to pairwise forces, despite empirical evidence for many-body effects. We introduce the directional atomic cluster expansion (dACE), which adapts the atomic cluster expansion (ACE) of interatomic potentials to self-propelled agents. dACE provides a systematically improvable, exactly equivariant expansion of an agent's acceleration that splits uniquely into 1-, 2-, 3-body and higher contributions, along with a self term for the agent's own past motion that is fitted so that it does not absorb the interactions. On simulated collectives in two and three dimensions with known rules, dACE recovers the interaction law body order by body order from little data, while the neural model SocialNet, the current closest competitor, needs more data, has much larger errors on many-body or chiral rules and is restricted to 2D. On real data sets of tracked zebrafish and golden shiners, the laws learned by dACE agree better between disjoint halves of the data than SocialNet's. The learned laws are interpretable, and in the shiners the 3-body term opposes the pairwise response as neighbourhoods get dense. Finally, we show that next-step prediction accuracy mostly measures self-propulsion and noise rather than the interactions, and suggest more robust combinations of error measures for interaction learning.