#01Nov 6, 2026
cs.LG
The Cost of Coverage: Conformalising Native Forecast Uncertainty for GB Wind Power
Carl Somers
Uncertainty bands on wind forecasts help inform reserve sizing and commitments, but often fail to deliver their stated coverage. We apply conformal prediction to native bands to see what it adds and what it costs, comparing six forecasters, from ARIMA to a tabular foundation model, at two wind farms in Great Britain (GB) under operational conditions. We show that calibration repairs empirical marginal coverage with little or no Winkler Score penalty, but this apparent success conceals under-coverage in high winds. Calibrating by forecast wind regime turns marginal coverage into regime-level coverage, cutting day-ahead out-of-band volume in high winds by over 40% relative to pooled calibration while narrowing bands overall.
#02Nov 6, 2026
cs.RO
On Agentic Manipulation Policies
Chen Chen, Omid Bagherieh, Naveen Nikamanth Appiah Balaji and 10 more
Recent work on robot manipulation has focused on specialist policies trained on demonstrations. We show that generalist AI models can control manipulators more reliably than specialist policies such as vision-language-action models (VLAs) and world-action models (WAMs). We systematically analyze agentic manipulation policies (AMPs), in which a generalist AI model commands the manipulator directly, adapting its actions as the task unfolds. We present AMP1, a reference harness that runs unchanged across single-arm, bimanual, and mobile manipulation. AMP1 achieves state-of-the-art results on the RoboLab-120 and CaP-Gym benchmarks, with no demonstrations or task-specific training. On RoboLab-120, AMP1 reaches an 85.6\% success rate zero-shot, compared to 49.2\% and 42.9\% for leading VLA and WAM policies. The agent succeeds zero-shot in 104 of 108 real-world trials spanning twelve tasks and three robot instances, reducing failure rates by 20x and 15x relative to strong VLA and WAM baselines. The basic harness supplies no grasping, pushing, or placing skills; the agent develops its own strategies, such as searching for hidden objects, using objects as tools, and calibrating its cameras. With the addition of a persistent memory store, the agent can also learn from experience: an augmented harness with a memory representation that is carried across episodes lowers the failure rate on RoboDojo bimanual manipulation tasks by 4.6x relative to zero-shot deployment. Our analysis suggests that AMPs are substantially more general and robust than specialist manipulation policies, providing a promising foundation for robot manipulation.
#03Nov 6, 2026
cs.LG
On the (non-)closedness of the set of ReLU networks
Eloi Martinet, Leon Bungert
We prove that the set $\mathcal{N}_N$ of ReLU networks with one hidden layer and at most $N\in\mathbb N$ neurons is weakly closed in $W^{1,p}(Ω)$, for a bounded connected open set $Ω\subset\mathbb R^d$. Consequently, every coercive, weakly lower semicontinuous energy on this space attains its minimum over $\mathcal{N}_N$. This covers the Deep Ritz method with convex integrands, Sobolev training and Lipschitz learning. Moreover, as the weight decay parameter tends to zero, minimizers of the regularized problem converge, up to subsequences, to minimizers with minimal parameter norm. We also prove that the set of ReLU networks with two hidden layers of bounded widths is not closed in $W^{1,p}(Ω)$ or in $C(\overlineΩ)$. This disproves a conjecture of Petersen, Raslan and Voigtlaender.
#04Nov 6, 2026
cs.AI
Test-Time Compute Scales Better with Parallel Agent Teams
Junlin Wang, Haozhe Chen, Ang Li and 2 more
Test-time scaling improves the performance of a fixed model by spending more computation at inference. There are two common ways to spend it on agents when a verifier can score every attempt. Best-of-N sampling runs many independent agents and keeps the best result but saturates quickly. One large team of collaborating agents can score higher but stops improving as it grows. Can we get the best of both? Our method, parallel agent teams, does so by sampling many small teams in parallel and keeping the best team's result. We test it on 12 long-horizon tasks from GPU kernels and formal proofs to exploit development. With a 27B model and a budget of 100 agents, parallel teams of ten beat parallel agents on 10 of 12 tasks and beat one team of 100 on all four tasks where we ran such large teams. At equal dollar cost the same parallel teams beat a frontier model on half the tasks. A simple statistical model shows that individual agents lose because their many samples have a low mean and that one large team loses because a single sample gets no gain from variance. Sampling many small teams in parallel balances a high mean with the gain from variance. Parallel agent teams thus offer a more effective way to scale test-time compute.
#05Nov 6, 2026
cs.CL
ROSE: Risk-Aware Orthogonal Subspace Navigation for Lifelong Knowledge Editing in Multimodal Large Language Models
Lingyun Song, Ziyao Chen, Kang Pan and 5 more
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) require continuous factual updates to stay current, yet lifelong knowledge editing remains a daunting challenge. The primary obstacle is the severe Locality Erosion and Catastrophic Forgetting, where sequential edits inevitably interfere with pre-trained capabilities and prior updates. In this paper, we propose \textbf{ROSE}, a \textbf{R}isk-aware \textbf{O}rthogonal \textbf{S}ubspace navigation framework for lifelong knowledge \textbf{E}diting. ROSE addresses forgetting by aiming to restrict parameter updates to the orthogonal complement of previously edited subspaces. Crucially, it introduces a risk-guided mechanism that utilizes a dynamically computed risk mask to safeguard specific factual parameter subspaces essential for model stability. During inference, ROSE employs a multi-granularity knowledge integration strategy, featuring prototype-anchored semantic gating and perturbation-driven subspace fusion to precisely activate edited knowledge for relevant queries while limiting interference on unrelated inputs. Comprehensive experiments on two prominent multimodal benchmarks show that ROSE is competitive with state-of-the-art approaches across five key metrics, while maintaining outstanding stability over $1,000$ sequential updates. Our code is available at https://github.com/sunlitsong/ROSE.