#01Nov 6, 2026
cs.AI
Knowing When to Intervene: Causal Evaluation of AI Agents
Ayush Sawarni, Wenqian Xing, Tijana Zrnic and 2 more
Current evaluations of agentic AI systems primarily rely on benchmarks. However, the static nature of benchmarks makes them uninformative about the value of auditing interventions at deployment time. For reliable deployment, we often need to determine within an agent's trajectory whether or not to intervene, e.g., by verifying the agent's current output or steering it toward different behavior, using either human review or more costly models or time-consuming agentic supervision. The value of such interventions is fundamentally a causal inference question, asking whether the causal effect of such an intervention is beneficial for the final outcome. Estimating this causal effect is particularly challenging due to the dynamic nature of the problem: the impact of an intervention depends on the current context and environment, as well as the agent's future behavior. We develop the first methodologically grounded framework for evaluating the causal effects of randomized interventions within agent trajectories. By leveraging a relatively small dataset of agent trajectories collected under randomized interventions such as verification or screening, we can estimate the dynamic causal effect of a rich class of (contextual) intervention policies. The structural parameters that we estimate can also be used to construct safety leaderboards that capture the risk of various agentic actions, which can be used by practitioners for audit prioritization. Applying our methods to tau-bench Retail, ToolSandbox, and ImpossibleBench, we find that intervention effects vary substantially across agent actions and states. More broadly, our work suggests a rich research agenda at the intersection of causal inference and agentic evaluation, which we believe is essential for the reliable and safe deployment of AI agents in the real world.
#02Nov 6, 2026
quant-ph
Discovering formally verified quantum programs with AI
Sergey Shirobokov, Ben Jaderberg, Katerina Hristova and 22 more
The timeline by which quantum computers can solve breakthrough problems in science depends on improved quantum algorithms as much as on better hardware. Such algorithmic advances are typically achieved through many years of expert human collaboration. In mathematics and computer science, large language models have accelerated progress through automated discovery loops. However, quantum algorithms can only be evaluated by classical computers on restricted or small instances. Here we demonstrate automated discovery of quantum programs beyond these regimes including order-of-magnitude improvements on scientific applications. To achieve this, we build a quantum program library in the Lean theorem prover in which large language model agents synthesize novel programs against formal problem specifications and verify their correctness and cost. Agent teams collaborate, sharing results and knowledge through wikis and discussing ideas at organized conferences. Our results improve on prior baselines for parallel search (up to 1.4x), quantum arithmetic (290x), and simulations relevant to fusion, photochemistry and drug-metabolism by 11x, 8x and 2.5x respectively. Combining human and artificial intelligence at scale, under the rigor of mathematical proof, lets researchers design algorithms that today's classical and quantum computers cannot test, shortening the path to practical quantum computation.
#03Nov 6, 2026
cs.CL
ROSE: Risk-Aware Orthogonal Subspace Navigation for Lifelong Knowledge Editing in Multimodal Large Language Models
Lingyun Song, Ziyao Chen, Kang Pan and 5 more
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) require continuous factual updates to stay current, yet lifelong knowledge editing remains a daunting challenge. The primary obstacle is the severe Locality Erosion and Catastrophic Forgetting, where sequential edits inevitably interfere with pre-trained capabilities and prior updates. In this paper, we propose \textbf{ROSE}, a \textbf{R}isk-aware \textbf{O}rthogonal \textbf{S}ubspace navigation framework for lifelong knowledge \textbf{E}diting. ROSE addresses forgetting by aiming to restrict parameter updates to the orthogonal complement of previously edited subspaces. Crucially, it introduces a risk-guided mechanism that utilizes a dynamically computed risk mask to safeguard specific factual parameter subspaces essential for model stability. During inference, ROSE employs a multi-granularity knowledge integration strategy, featuring prototype-anchored semantic gating and perturbation-driven subspace fusion to precisely activate edited knowledge for relevant queries while limiting interference on unrelated inputs. Comprehensive experiments on two prominent multimodal benchmarks show that ROSE is competitive with state-of-the-art approaches across five key metrics, while maintaining outstanding stability over $1,000$ sequential updates. Our code is available at https://github.com/sunlitsong/ROSE.
#04Nov 6, 2026
cs.RO
On Agentic Manipulation Policies
Chen Chen, Omid Bagherieh, Naveen Nikamanth Appiah Balaji and 10 more
Recent work on robot manipulation has focused on specialist policies trained on demonstrations. We show that generalist AI models can control manipulators more reliably than specialist policies such as vision-language-action models (VLAs) and world-action models (WAMs). We systematically analyze agentic manipulation policies (AMPs), in which a generalist AI model commands the manipulator directly, adapting its actions as the task unfolds. We present AMP1, a reference harness that runs unchanged across single-arm, bimanual, and mobile manipulation. AMP1 achieves state-of-the-art results on the RoboLab-120 and CaP-Gym benchmarks, with no demonstrations or task-specific training. On RoboLab-120, AMP1 reaches an 85.6\% success rate zero-shot, compared to 49.2\% and 42.9\% for leading VLA and WAM policies. The agent succeeds zero-shot in 104 of 108 real-world trials spanning twelve tasks and three robot instances, reducing failure rates by 20x and 15x relative to strong VLA and WAM baselines. The basic harness supplies no grasping, pushing, or placing skills; the agent develops its own strategies, such as searching for hidden objects, using objects as tools, and calibrating its cameras. With the addition of a persistent memory store, the agent can also learn from experience: an augmented harness with a memory representation that is carried across episodes lowers the failure rate on RoboDojo bimanual manipulation tasks by 4.6x relative to zero-shot deployment. Our analysis suggests that AMPs are substantially more general and robust than specialist manipulation policies, providing a promising foundation for robot manipulation.
#05Nov 6, 2026
cs.LG
Fifty-Two Shades of Pig: What the UCR Archive Really Asks Classifiers to Do
Omar Swelam, Jaris Küken, Shi Bin Hoo and 2 more
The pigs were bleeding. That was the point of the experiment: could airway pressure reveal hemorrhage before it became critical? In the UCR Time Series Classification Archive, the de facto benchmark for Time Series Classification (TSC), the same recordings ask a different question: "which of 52 pigs produced this trace?". The dataset PigAirwayPressure is not an outlier. Although the archive is the standard benchmark, whether its tasks resemble the problems TSC is meant to solve has rarely been examined. We find that several datasets are repurposed from their original task, built from toy setups, or have flawed test splits. We further question how representative the archive's ordered non-temporal sequences (e.g. spectra, shape outlines) are of real TSC, and the potential downsides from the decomposition of multivariate problems. Our findings call for more careful interpretation of archive-wide scores and greater attention to deployment-relevant evaluation. The audit is at https://github.com/automl/ucr-provenance-audit.