#01Nov 6, 2026
cs.LG
From PAC bounds on the generalization error to PAC bounds on the parameter estimation error
Mihaly Petreczky, John Leth, Emma Lukacs and 1 more
Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) bounds on the generalization error (the difference between the empirical prediction error computed on the training data and its expectation) are an established tool in statistical machine learning, and there have been several extensions of these bounds to dynamical systems. In parallel, in recent years, there has been growing interest in finite-sample bounds for parameter estimation error in system identification. The latter bounds tend to be algorithm-specific, relying on reformulating the identification algorithm as a least-squares regression problem. This is in contrast to classical PAC bounds, which are algorithm-agnostic and can be applied to any identification algorithm based on minimizing a cost function involving the empirical loss. In this paper, we show how oracle bounds derived from PAC bounds can be used to derive finite-sample bounds for dynamical systems. As an illustration of this approach, we present finite-sample parameter-estimation bounds for linear and bilinear systems with bounded inputs and noise. These bounds apply to identification algorithms based on minimizing a regularized empirical loss function. The key ingredient is to establish an oracle inequality, i.e., an inequality between the true prediction error of the learned model and the minimum achievable true prediction error, and then use either the convexity of the true loss or system-theoretic properties of the loss function to derive bounds on the parameter estimation error. We also analyze the rates of the obtained bounds and compare them with those of classical asymptotic results.
#02Nov 6, 2026
cs.AI
Knowing When to Intervene: Causal Evaluation of AI Agents
Ayush Sawarni, Wenqian Xing, Tijana Zrnic and 2 more
Current evaluations of agentic AI systems primarily rely on benchmarks. However, the static nature of benchmarks makes them uninformative about the value of auditing interventions at deployment time. For reliable deployment, we often need to determine within an agent's trajectory whether or not to intervene, e.g., by verifying the agent's current output or steering it toward different behavior, using either human review or more costly models or time-consuming agentic supervision. The value of such interventions is fundamentally a causal inference question, asking whether the causal effect of such an intervention is beneficial for the final outcome. Estimating this causal effect is particularly challenging due to the dynamic nature of the problem: the impact of an intervention depends on the current context and environment, as well as the agent's future behavior. We develop the first methodologically grounded framework for evaluating the causal effects of randomized interventions within agent trajectories. By leveraging a relatively small dataset of agent trajectories collected under randomized interventions such as verification or screening, we can estimate the dynamic causal effect of a rich class of (contextual) intervention policies. The structural parameters that we estimate can also be used to construct safety leaderboards that capture the risk of various agentic actions, which can be used by practitioners for audit prioritization. Applying our methods to tau-bench Retail, ToolSandbox, and ImpossibleBench, we find that intervention effects vary substantially across agent actions and states. More broadly, our work suggests a rich research agenda at the intersection of causal inference and agentic evaluation, which we believe is essential for the reliable and safe deployment of AI agents in the real world.
#03Nov 6, 2026
cs.LG
Quasipolynomial-Time Planning for Decodable POMDPs
Oliver Dobson, Varun Jog, Chun Hei Michael Shiu
We study planning for finite-horizon partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with finite state, action, and observation spaces. Both exact and approximate planning are known to be computationally hard in this setting, so prior work has explored natural assumptions that make planning easier. Recent work [Golowich et al., 2022] gave quasipolynomial-time approximate planning algorithms for observable POMDPs. These are POMDPs whose observation channels satisfy an $\ell_1$-observability condition, but notably, no assumptions are required on the transition dynamics. In a similar vein, for every fixed $ρ>0$, we give quasipolynomial-time approximate planning algorithms for $ρ$-decodable POMDPs. We show that decodability is implied by both $\ell_1$- and $\ell_2$-observability and is strictly weaker than observability. Moreover, we show that the optimal decodability constant can be computed in polynomial time, whereas computing the optimal $\ell_1$-observability constant is NP-hard in the worst case. We also show that the fast filter-forgetting guarantee underlying the approach of [Golowich et al., 2022] does not extend directly from $\ell_1$-observability to constant $\ell_2$-observability. Thus, decodability is an easy-to-check, unifying assumption under which quasipolynomial-time approximate planning for POMDPs is possible.
#04Nov 6, 2026
cs.AI
BitDecoding-FP4: Native FP4 KV Cache Decoding via Algorithm-System Co-Design
Dayou Du, Woon Yee Ng, Guangming Sheng and 3 more
The key-value (KV) cache dominates memory capacity and bandwidth in long-context LLM serving. While 4-bit microscaling formats (NVFP4, MXFP4) shrink the cache and run attention on FP4 Tensor Cores, a fundamental gap remains between algorithmic quantization and system-aware acceleration: existing FP4 KV systems use vanilla quantization that causes severe accuracy drops, whereas accuracy-oriented 4-bit algorithms rely on vector codebooks whose lookup overhead degrades decoding throughput. We present BitDecoding-FP4, an algorithm--system co-design for accurate and efficient native FP4 KV decoding. We mitigate three error sources: Dual-Residual Query Quantization splits queries into two FP4 tensors, cutting query logit error from 60% to 1%; Underflow-Aware Probability Scaling prevents E4M3 scales from rounding long-context probabilities to zero; and Outlier-Aware Key Quantization combines static smoothing, Hadamard rotation, and scale search to suppress key outliers under token-wise scaling. At the system level, we remove the softmax bottleneck via transposed softmax with fused probability quantization and stacked query MMA on paged KV caches. Across dense and MoE models with GQA and MLA, BitDecoding-FP4 stays within 0.5 points of BF16 KV accuracy with NVFP4 (1 point with MXFP4), and tracks BF16 KV in RL training rollouts. In end-to-end serving on NVIDIA B300 with Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-30B-A3B, it delivers 2.4-3.0$\times$ higher peak serving throughput than BF16 KV. The implementation is available at https://github.com/OpenBitSys/BitDecoding-FP4.
#05Nov 6, 2026
cs.CL
Language as Trait, Politeness as Strategy: Controlled Tests of Linguistic Effects in LLM Social-Deduction Agents
Yuchen Li, Lisa Liu, Runqi Zou and 3 more
Large language model (LLM) agents coordinate through conversation, and the same message can be phrased in simpler or more complex language, bluntly or politely. We test whether such differences change how other agents judge and act, using the LURK Werewolf framework, which separates each utterance's speech-act predicate from its natural-language realization. We rewrite only the realization, check that the game content is preserved, and replay each game day from saved checkpoints against a re-sampled control. We vary linguistic range consistently across a speaker's messages and politeness strategy per utterance. Across 30 games and 4,335 replays, neither manipulation changes the trust other agents place in the speaker, and no effect on votes or night actions survives correction for multiple comparisons; the largest uncorrected effect is that shifting range away from a neutral paraphrase changes about 4 percentage points more of the other players' votes. In natural play, 88% of face-threatening speech is bald on-record regardless of role.