#01Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
Present but Hard to Read: Probing Latent Reasoning with Minimal Pairs
Aur Shalev Merin
Probing studies of latent reasoning often read a model's state where the answer begins and take a failed probe as evidence that a value is absent. We test this with a digit copied from the question, in the looped model Ouro-1.4B and the standard transformer Qwen2.5-1.5B. Comparing prompts that differ only in that digit shows it is present at the last prompt token, in a code shared across questions (readout about 0.9). A probe that sees one prompt at a time, the usual setting, barely reads it: 0.36 in Ouro and 0.19 in Qwen even after 5,249 training questions. The digit's change is small rather than crowded: random noise lands on equally busy directions, while a random word in its place moves the state far more and is readable. Since every varied token leaves a trace, a successful probe is ambiguous too. We give a protocol, including a synthetic null for generic mixing, for testing computed values against copies and mixtures of the inputs. In pre-registered studies of two-step problems it finds a small signal for the unwritten intermediate a+b just before Ouro writes the answer's last digit, and its sign follows the operation, though mixing alone produces much of that sign-following part. Holding that value at another problem's from the first loop on does not move the written digit toward the other problem's, while the same patch of the answer does: the value is readable but not used.
#02Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
Asymmetric Bidirectional Predictive Dynamics in Google Search and COVID-19 Time Series: A Multi-Horizon Forecast-Error Analysis
Andrei Velichko, Imen Mahmoud
Online search activity is widely used as a digital trace of information seeking during epidemics, but its predictive value is often reduced to correlation, a selected lag, or a single forecast-error score. We examine eight pre-specified Google Trends-COVID-19 pairs in both directions using matched LightGBM forecasts over rolling 400-day windows and horizons of 1-14 days. Log-RMSE gain is combined with forecast-error distribution entropy (FEDE), which captures horizon-dependent changes in the signed error distribution. The resulting directional predictive signature comprises response class, RMSE effect, FEDE endpoint and early-slope responses, persistence across rolling regimes, and horizon profile. For screening candidate directions, we also introduce a relative persistence-weighted directional predictive response strength (DPRS) on a within-study 0-100 scale; 100 denotes the strongest observed response in the comparison set, not an absolute coupling maximum. The pairs show concordant, RMSE-only, FEDE-only, and mixed responses. "loss of smell" -> reported cases is accuracy-dominant, with mean log-RMSE gain 0.104 (about 9.9% equivalent RMSE reduction) and DPRS 100, whereas the reverse direction is FEDE-dominant (D_FEDE=0.048; DPRS=42). "covid test" -> positive rate is FEDE-dominant (D_FEDE=0.039; positive in 72% of windows; DPRS=98) despite negative RMSE gain, while "lockdown" -> stringency is the clearest concordant case (DPRS=78). World-level symptom/case pairs are less persistent. Thus, forecast accuracy and error-distribution dynamics are complementary, predictive effects can be direction- and metric-dependent, and forecast horizon is part of the relationship. Aggregated regime-level patterns should not be extrapolated to individual time points or interpreted as evidence of causality.
#03Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
Turning TS2Vec into a Foundation Model for Time Series Classification
Vasilii Feofanov, Zhenghan Tai, Andrei Ermakov and 1 more
TS2Vec is one of the strongest self-supervised methods for time series classification, introduced in 2022. It is designed to be trained anew on every dataset: self-supervised pre-training followed by linear probing. Since then, the field has shifted towards foundation models that reuse one encoder across datasets. Yet TS2Vec offers a compact convolutional architecture that operates directly on temporal samples and accepts variable-length inputs without resampling. We ask whether these properties can be retained when the encoder is pre-trained only once, and show that they can: TS2Vec can essentially be turned into a foundation model. Three changes suffice: pre-train on a synthetic corpus, feed the encoder a raw amplitude view and an instance-normalized shape view of the input through two small stems, and distill one specialist encoder per view into a single encoder. The result, TS2Vec-FM, is a 1.6M-parameter dilated convolutional network that, kept frozen, reaches 83.3% on UCR-128 and 75.3% on UEA-27 under linear probing, within 0.3 pp of MantisV2, the current state of the art, and above TS2Vec trained separately on each target dataset. What we find most interesting is how different TS2Vec-FM is from other foundation models in design: near-parity is reached without attention, without a patch tokenizer, and without intermediate-layer extraction, using an "old-school" convolutional encoder and a two-layer MLP stem.
#04Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
GraphCast-Mamba: Learning Non-Markovian Corrections for Weather Forecasting
Ilya Vilkoviskiy, Liang-Hong Mo, Suozhi Huang and 1 more
Unresolved atmospheric processes can introduce history dependence beyond the short input windows used by many weather forecasting models. We introduce GraphCast--Mamba, which augments a frozen, pretrained $1^\circ$ GraphCast backbone with a trainable Mamba correction branch combining graph message passing and Mamba layers. The branch retains a temporal memory state across successive six-hour forecast steps, learning corrections informed by temporal context beyond GraphCast's two-frame input. Training is confined to the correction branch, using ERA5 data from 2015--2021. After 2,500 optimizer updates, including warm-up, the selected model achieves substantial improvements relative to the uncorrected GraphCast backbone. It reduces the GraphCast loss (normalized weighted mean-squared error; MSE) by 14.42% when aggregated over the full ten-day forecast and by 21.66% at day 10 (240 h after forecast initialization). At this final forecast lead time, root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreases by 7.09--14.60% across all 11 evaluated variable groups, spanning temperature, wind, pressure, geopotential, specific humidity, and precipitation. These results demonstrate broad improvements in ten-day weather forecasts through a short correction-training schedule while retaining the pretrained backbone.
#05Oct 20, 2026
cs.CV
WildMAE: Structure-Aware Masked Autoencoding for Wildlife Image Reconstruction
Yicheng Zhang, Yujie Jin, Ke Zhang and 1 more
Camera-trap imagery presents substantial variation in animal appearance, illumination, background clutter, and visual degradation. Masked autoencoders (MAEs) offer a label-free framework for modeling such data through reconstruction of randomly hidden image patches. We present WildMAE, a decoder-side extension of MAE that combines local structure-aware refinement with masked-to-visible cross-attention. A zero-gated convolutional residual path introduces a two-dimensional neighborhood prior, while gated cross-attention allows masked positions to retrieve contextual information from visible-position features without replacing the original Transformer decoder. The associated training recipe progressively introduces normalized-pixel, Sobel-edge, and perceptual objectives. In the original Snapshot Serengeti study, covering 4,744 test images at 75% masking, the reported reconstruction scores were 27.90 versus 24.33 dB PSNR, 0.840 versus 0.780 SSIM, and 0.160 versus 0.320 LPIPS for WildMAE and vanilla MAE, respectively. Additional historical records document favorable average differences under four synthetic degradation conditions and describe component variants. We present the method, experimental observations, and their scope together: the retained metrics are historical protocol-dependent results, rather than a newly reproduced, harmonized comparison or a validation of restoration from genuinely unavailable pixels. WildMAE provides a practical architectural case study for combining global token mixing with spatial and targeted contextual refinement in wildlife masked-image modeling.