#01Oct 20, 2026
cs.AI
Claims of emergence in AI should be grounded in information decomposition
Christoph Riedl, Fernando E. Rosas
When a language model develops capabilities not traceable to its individual components, when a multi-agent AI system outperforms each agent on its own, or when a human-AI pair succeeds where either fails in isolation, AI researchers describe it as a case of ``synergy'' or ``emergence''. However, these are usually informal assessments not supported by a theoretical framework, making these claims impossible to compare or even meaningfully dispute. Here we argue that \emph{information decomposition can serve as a unifying formal framework to operationalize assessments about synergy in AI systems}. Information decomposition provides a way to distinguish qualitatively different \emph{types} of information, including unique information available from individual components, redundant information shared across multiple components, and synergistic information accessible only from parts taken together. This gives claims of emergence a precise, falsifiable criterion: a system's behavior is emergent only if it carries synergistic information about task-relevant outcomes. We apply this lens to attention heads, autonomous agents, and human-AI teams, showing how it organizes existing knowledge across scales and substrates, while also generating cross-level conjectures that siloed fields would miss.
#02Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
ECG for laboratory values:A comprehensive physiological and technical analysis
Walentin Palanchuk
Laboratory measurements are essential for clinical decision making but typically require invasive blood sampling. Recent research suggests that ECG recordings may contain information beyond cardiac rhythm and provide information related to laboratory values. This thesis investigates NT-proBNP prediction from ECG recordings and patient metadata using a multimodal deep learning framework, while considering the physiological plausibility of ECG-based prediction. It also compares a 1-lead configuration using lead II with the corresponding 12-lead configuration. Additional experiments on glucose, hemoglobin, and potassium are presented in the appendix. Regression, binary classification, and three-class classification experiments were conducted using MIMIC-IV, with the three-class task based on clinically established thresholds. The 12-lead configuration consistently achieved better performance. Regression reached a mean absolute error of 534.98 pg/mL for 1-lead and 514.27 pg/mL for 12-lead. Binary classification achieved AUROCs of 0.849 and 0.876, respectively, while three-class classification achieved macro-averaged AUROCs of 0.738 and 0.752. The results indicate that precise NT-proBNP regression remains challenging, whereas broader concentration ranges can be classified more effectively. The findings are consistent with the physiological hypothesis that ECG characteristics and NT-proBNP concentrations reflect shared cardiovascular processes. ECG-based NT-proBNP prediction may therefore provide complementary information, particularly for classifying broader concentration ranges. However, laboratory measurements remain necessary, and validation on independent datasets is required.
#03Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
The Dynamics of Collapse and Recovery in Clustered Federated Learning
Priyanka Sinha, Snigdhansu Chatterjee
Clustered federated learning (CFL) can suffer from cluster collapse. In particular, under unfavorable initialization, early client assignments concentrate heterogeneous groups on one cluster model, which is then trained toward a pooled compromise, while another model receives no updates. Since the current models determine client routing and routing determines subsequent model updates, we formulate clustered federated learning as control of an unknown dynamical system, with cluster models as the evolving state, client routing patterns as the control input, and routing interventions as state dependent controllers. In a two group linear model, we identify an initialization region in which greedy routing makes collapse self reinforcing. We then derive finite horizon error dynamics showing how routing interventions can reverse collapse by repeatedly training the starved model, primarily with updates from its compatible group. Motivated by this condition, each client uses blocked EXP3 to choose between greedy routing and interventions that redirect updates toward unused models. Experiments show that with simpler predictors and faster specialist formation, autonomous controller selection recovers usable specialists from unfavorable starts that trap standard CFL baselines. In transformed FEMNIST, the synchronized-entry configuration with persistent commitment recovers usable specialists in settings where the autonomous controller configuration often does not. Code and scripts for reproducing the experiments and figures are available at https://github.com/prsinha1/FedRecover.
#04Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
Discount Yourself: Self-inclusive Freshness-weighted Gossip for Decentralised Learning under Client Outages
Qiyuan Wang, Ke Xiao, Christos Anagnostopoulos
Decentralised federated learning (DFL) trains personalised models on devices that average with their neighbours rather than with a central server. Real devices, however, are often offline for hours or days, and a client returning from an outage can recover only by aggregating the models its neighbourhood holds. We observe that the stalest of these models is usually the client's own, a case that existing staleness-aware rules, which discount only the models a client receives, do not address. We formalise aggregation after an outage as estimating the state of a fully available network and derive three principles. First, the receiver must be discounted like any neighbour. Every rule that weights it at least as much as each neighbour has an error that grows without bound with the outage, whereas discounting all candidates by relative staleness keeps the error bounded. Second, staleness must be measured as inherited lag rather than age, since local training resets a model's age but not the lag it absorbed from stale neighbours. We introduce the effective lag, which tracks this quantity at the cost of one scalar per message. Third, the discount must be steep, because absorbed lag persists in every later round. These principles define Self-inclusive Freshness-weighted Gossip (SFG), a family of drop-in aggregation rules with the communication and computation of decentralised federated averaging, whose guarantees hold for the stale receiver itself. On three image benchmarks and eight outage processes, including real smartphone availability traces, the lag-based members SFG-L and SFG-Cut consistently outperform decentralised federated averaging and recent age-of-information rules, and ablations show that each principle is necessary. The analysis also explains why tuned limited merging from gossip learning is effective.
#05Oct 20, 2026
cs.LG
Model- and Layer-Level Closed-Loop Forecasting with SSM-Based Spiking Neural Networks
Erik Stolt, Sanja Karilanova, Ayca Ozcelikkale
Deep State-Space Models (Deep SSMs) have shown promising performance and computational benefits in processing of time-series data with complex temporal dependencies. Spiking neural networks (SNNs) constitute a biologically inspired class of deep SSMs, where computing blocks communicate through spikes, discrete single-bit events rather than continuous activation functions. A particularly important task in time-series processing is forecasting, i.e. predicting future values of a sequence from past observations alone. However, how to best perform forecasting with SNNs is an open question, where the standard autoregressive nature of the data processing with SNNs requires values that are not available during the forecasting phase. In this article, we address this challenge. We explore two closed-loop forecasting strategies, in which the network's own generated values are fed back into the network as if they were observed past values: (i) model-level and (ii) layer-level closed-loop forecasting. We evaluate these approaches on the ETT-small datasets, a standard benchmark for time-series forecasting, under both spike-based and continuous activation functions. We compare the proposed closed-loop approaches against state-of-the-art methods such as SpaceTime, as well as the zero-masking baseline in S4. Both of the proposed approaches perform comparably to or better than zero-masking with S4, and in most cases match SpaceTime. These findings highlight the trade-off between continuous and low-bit quantized activations, and demonstrate that the proposed Deep SSM architectures provide a competitive framework for forecasting.