#01Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
Physics-Based Deep Spatiotemporal Hyperlocal Radar Nowcasting with a Multi-Variable U-Net for High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasting
Akshay Sunil, Muhammed Rashid, Raja Sekhar Sivaraju and 2 more
Precipitation nowcasting over the immediate 10-90 min period is important for flood management and real-time decision-making in urban regions. Conventional short-range forecasting with high-resolution numerical weather prediction requires frequent data assimilation, model initialization, and spin-up, introducing computational latency. Machine learning provides an alternative by learning storm evolution directly from high-frequency observations and producing forecasts quickly after training. This is particularly relevant for Mumbai, India, where monsoon convection, land-sea interactions, and localized intense rainfall make short-term prediction difficult. Here, we develop a compact radar-only nowcasting framework that combines multi-elevation reflectivity, Doppler radial velocity, and radial-velocity-gradient proxy features within an encoder-decoder U-Net. Using the most recent radar volume scan, the model predicts 12 future composite reflectivity fields at 7.5-min intervals up to 90 min lead time. The derived velocity magnitude, divergence-like, directional-shear, and vorticity-like channels represent kinematic signatures associated with convergence and boundary interactions without requiring full wind-field retrieval. A high-reflectivity attention module improves sensitivity to convective cores, and physics-guided attribution examines whether the learned sensitivities are meteorologically meaningful. The model is trained using Mumbai Doppler radar observations from May to August 2023 and evaluated on temporally independent events. At 90 min lead time, Critical Success Index values are 0.437, 0.332, and 0.193 for $\geq$10, $\geq$20, and $\geq$30 dBZ thresholds, respectively. Compared with persistence, the model gives lower RMSE and higher spatial correlation at longer lead times. Once trained, it runs on a standard computer, generating nowcasts within seconds for real-time use.
#02Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
PagedWeight: Efficient MoE LLM Serving with Dynamic Quality-Aware Weight Quantization
Yuchen Yang, Yifan Zhao, Anisha Dasgupta and 1 more
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) is a popular class of large language models (LLMs), offering high efficiency and accuracy. However, in KV-cache-intensive serving scenarios, MoEs often exhibit a tension between the GPU memory requirements of the model weights and the growing KV cache. We propose PagedWeight, a novel management method for MoE LLM serving that dynamically quantizes MoE model's weights at runtime and balances expert-weight precision with the KV cache sizes. PagedWeight exposes and effectively navigates the complex tradeoff between the model's task accuracy, memory consumption, and throughput/latency. Across several memory-sensitive MoE serving scenarios, PagedWeight improves the quality-memory tradeoff over several existing quantization baselines. PagedWeight achieves FP16-equivalent accuracy with up to 72.0% GPU memory savings and 1.94$\times$ throughput improvement, and improves quality over quantization methods by up to 39.3% at a similar memory budget with at most 4.1% throughput loss.
#03Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
Constrained Hebbian Learning Supports Efficient Representational Allocation under Structural Constraints
Patrick Inoue, Florian Röhrbein, Andreas Knoblauch
Introduction: Biological systems face anatomical and metabolic constraints, including costly synaptic maintenance and limited connectivity. These constraints favor neural codes that compress behaviorally relevant information into low-redundancy patterns. We test whether an excitatory competitive Hebbian rule can support synaptic resource allocation under such constraints and whether the resulting representations occupy a more favorable cost-performance regime than reference learning rules. Methods: Representational cost is quantified using mutual-information-based measures derived from the Variational Information Bottleneck. Experiments use fixed audiovisual embeddings from three audiovisual benchmarks (AVE, Kinetics-Sounds, VGGSound100) to isolate downstream associative plasticity. Hebbian learning is compared with Dense Difference Target Propagation (DDTP) and backpropagation (BP) under matched sparsity and architectural constraints. Results: Hebbian learning achieves lower task-information cost (CTI) than sparse BP and DDTP in the main compressed comparisons, while reaching CTI values comparable to shallow BP with nonnegative weights. Rather than uniformly improving classification performance, Hebbian learning shifts the trade-off between task-relevant information and representational cost, yielding lower CTI at comparable functional performance in several settings. Discussion: The results indicate a cost-performance trade-off rather than uniform accuracy gains. For a given level of task-relevant information, Hebbian representations retain less input information while preserving functional performance, although accuracy is slightly reduced on some datasets. These findings support interpreting Hebbian learning as a mechanism for synaptic resource allocation rather than as a general strategy for maximizing audiovisual classification accuracy.
#04Jul 17, 2026
quant-ph
Rethinking Quantum Continual Learning with Quantum Fisher Information
Yu-Chao Hsu, Yu-Cheng Lin, Tai-Yue Li and 2 more
Quantum continual learning aims to train quantum models on sequential tasks without losing previously learned knowledge. However, variational quantum classifiers (VQCs) are prone to catastrophic forgetting under nonstationary task distributions. We propose quantum elastic weight consolidation (QEWC), a quantum Fisher information (QFI)-informed regularization method for mitigating forgetting. Unlike conventional elastic weight consolidation based on classical Fisher information (CFI), which measures parameter importance through measurement-dependent output statistics, QEWC uses QFI to quantify the intrinsic sensitivity of the parameterized quantum state. This gives an information-geometric view in which important parameters are identified by the local response of the quantum state manifold. We evaluate QEWC on VQCs trained on sequential binary classification tasks, including classical image-classification and quantum phase-classification tasks. Simulations show that sequential training without regularization causes severe forgetting, while both CFI-based EWC and QFI-based QEWC improve retention of previous tasks. Mechanistic analyses further show that the two methods impose different regularization geometries: CFI acts selectively on measurement-sensitive directions, whereas QFI imposes a denser state-geometric constraint over parameter space. Under depolarizing noise, CFI values are strongly suppressed by degraded measurement statistics, while QFI preserves a more stable sensitivity structure of the noisy parameterized quantum state. These results establish QEWC as a physically motivated approach for studying and mitigating forgetting in quantum continual learning through quantum-state geometry.
#05Jul 17, 2026
cs.LG
CLaC@FinMMEval 2026 Task 3: Sentiment-Augmented Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Trading -- An Alpha-Reward Approach
Andrei Neagu, Eeham Khan, Leila Kosseim
This paper presents our system for Task 3 of the CLEF 2026 FinMMEval Lab, which requires daily long, flat, or short trading decisions for Bitcoin (BTC) and Tesla (TSLA) using news and historical market data. We formulate the problem as a discrete-action Markov Decision Process and compare four deep reinforcement learning algorithms: Policy Gradient (PG), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Deep Q-Learning (DQL), and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG). The agents use technical indicators, cyclical calendar encodings, and daily news sentiment scores produced by LLaMA 3.2 1B. To reduce overfitting and align training with the objective of outperforming buy-and-hold, we introduce an alpha reward based on excess market return and randomize episode start dates. Hyperparameters are optimized with Ray Tune over 180 trials per algorithm-asset pair, with early stopping and model selection based on validation Sharpe ratio. On the CLEF Task 3 test set, DDPG achieves the strongest overall performance. DQL was selected a priori for the live endpoint because it obtained the highest validation Sharpe ratio, with selection performed without access to the test period. For TSLA, DDPG and DQL achieve cumulative returns of 54.96% and 52.62%, respectively, compared with 16.45% for buy-and-hold. For BTC, DDPG achieves a positive return of 1.58% while buy-and-hold declines by -34.27%. The results also reveal a substantial validation-to-test generalization gap, highlighting the difficulty of transferring policies selected in bull-market conditions to a bear-market regime.