#01Nov 4, 2026
cs.CL
Ranking Agreement Does Not Reveal Paragraph-Edit Agreement in Two Released Paper Acceptance Predictors
Shaoliang Yang, Jun Wang
A fast acceptance classifier could select revisions for a slower evaluator. We ask whether agreement on existing papers supports that use. We compare a classifier of word and document features with two released text-only acceptance predictors fine-tuned from the same language model with three billion parameters. For 198 papers from the International Conference on Learning Representations, we compare model rankings of the original papers and of paragraph rewrites screened automatically for unchanged facts, claim strength, and attribution. The classifier ranks original papers closely with one predictor and moderately with the other, but shows no detectable agreement with either on which rewrites raise scores. The tests specified in advance used reduced numerical precision. Rounding error dominated the small score responses. We therefore rescored the released weights in full 32-bit precision as a post hoc check; edit agreement remained near zero. At this precision, when each predictor chooses among five rewrites per paper, its average raw score is under two points out of 100 higher than with random choice. The evidence covers presentation rewrites and two open predictors from one family; transfer to costly evaluators remains untested. Revision selectors should therefore be checked against the intended evaluator on the revisions they rank.
#02Nov 4, 2026
cs.LG
Context--Answer Metamodels: Forecasting LLM Activations Before the First Answer Token
Tommy He, Thomas Jiralerspong
Under stochastic decoding, a single context can elicit many different answers from a language model. Characterizing this variation typically requires many expensive autoregressive rollouts, each revealing only one realization. We ask whether the activations produced while reading the context can directly forecast the model's rollout activations. We train context--answer metamodels that map a context activation sequence to point or distribution forecasts of mean-pooled answer activations. We find that (i) the four metamodel families we study forecast mean-pooled answer activations with high fidelity, and the distribution metamodels also capture rollout variability; (ii) performance improves as the training set grows to 500,000 prompts, and the metamodels generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain datasets; (iii) their forecasts retain behavior-predictive signal; and (iv) context activations from Qwen2.5 predict mean-pooled answer activations from Qwen3.5 and Gemma 4, suggesting that activation forecasts can transfer across models. Together, these results suggest that context activation traces can support scalable forecasts of behaviors in LLM answers before the first answer token is generated.
#03Nov 4, 2026
cond-mat.mtrl-sci
Evolutionary Design of Interpretable Spatial Descriptors for Structure-Property Relationship Discovery
Aditya Raghavan, Sergei V Kalinin
Structure property prediction is a classical task in machine learning, ranging from molecular activity and materials properties to local functional responses measured in microscopy. For image-based regression, two choices define the information available to the predictor: the size of the image neighborhood and the spatial resolution retained within it. A small neighborhood can omit relevant surrounding structure, whereas a large, finely sampled neighborhood can introduce redundant or irrelevant information. Here, we develop a framework for constructing spatial descriptors for prediction of local spectra and hysteresis loops. We benchmark regression models, use SHAP maps to examine their spatial attribution, and explore the effect of the patch size and compression to establish the relationship between predictive accuracy and descriptor dimensionality. We then use a genetic algorithm to optimize spatial partitions and the assignment of mean, minimum, and maximum pooling operations. Each retained region contributes an explicit measurement of the image, allowing the search to balance prediction error against the number of descriptor values. Cartesian and polar constructions provide complementary ways to organize this information. The resulting descriptors make it possible to examine where spatial detail is needed, where regional summaries are sufficient, and how these choices depend on the predictor and the measured response. The same approach can be used for molecules and solids once the genetic algorithm rules for these are established.
#04Nov 4, 2026
math.ST
Fundamental Limits of Coherent Imaging in The Presence of Atmospheric Turbulence
Songbin Liu, Hanyu Yang, Junren Chen and 1 more
We study the fundamental limits of jointly estimating the signal amplitude and the atmospheric phase distortion in complex-valued multi-look coherent imaging, where the measurements are corrupted by multiplicative speckle and additive Gaussian noise, all looks share a known Gaussian sensing matrix, and both parameters belong to structured classes. By analyzing a constrained maximum likelihood estimator, we establish an upper bound on the joint minimax risk that holds uniformly over the admissible parameter classes, while oracle reductions and Fano-type arguments yield worst-case lower bounds over the admissible parameter classes. These results quantify the effects of structural complexity, signal and measurement dimensions, the number of looks, and the noise level, and establish matching minimax rates in several settings, with a remaining gap for phase estimation at low noise when the measurement dimension exceeds the signal dimension. We also construct a two-stage estimator for signal recovery under arbitrary diagonal sign distortions in the real-valued analogue. Under additional conditions, it recovers the signs up to a global sign with high probability and yields a uniform signal risk bound without a distortion-complexity term. Numerical experiments illustrate the dependence of the joint, signal, and phase errors on the model parameters and provide further support for the theoretical analysis.
#05Nov 4, 2026
cs.LG
Message-passing graph persistence
Jorge Luiz Franco, Arthur Queiroz Moura, Moacir Ponti and 1 more
Message-passing graph neural networks (GNNs) are limited in expressive power by the one-dimensional Weisfeiler-Leman test. Persistent homology (PH) provides topological descriptors that can complement GNN representations, but existing approaches typically compute persistence separately from the representation learning process. In this paper, we introduce Message-Passing Graph Persistence (MGP), a family of topological descriptors that incorporates message passing into graph filtrations. At each filtration step, node embeddings are updated using the current subgraph and associated with persistence events. These embeddings also determine the representatives of connected components during persistence computation. We prove that MGP is invariant under graph isomorphism and that it is strictly more expressive than the PH-based descriptors it extends. We evaluate MGP on an expressivity benchmark and on several graph classification and regression datasets. Experiments show that MGP outperforms other PH-based descriptors on most of these datasets.