#01Nov 6, 2026
cs.CV
FlowMoP: Stochastic Multi-Person Motion Prediction
Aadya Agrawal, Ho Kei Cheng, Alexander Schwing
Predicting the future motion of multiple people is inherently stochastic: the same observed history admits many plausible continuations depending on intent, coordination, and social context. Yet the dominant paradigm in multi-person 3D motion prediction remains deterministic, with existing methods producing a fixed number of outputs per agent. In contrast, we present a conditional flow matching framework that jointly generates diverse future motions for multiple agents, modeling both global trajectories and root-relative poses. A B-spline reparameterization compresses the generative state space while enforcing temporal smoothness, and a dual-stream transformer conditions each agent's predictions on observed neighbor motion for interaction-aware forecasting. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on CMU-Mocap (UMPM) and 3DPW, outperforming deterministic baselines on joint position error, pose error, and final displacement error despite producing a full predictive distribution. We additionally establish the first motion prediction baseline on WorldPose, a large-scale professional soccer dataset, where social conditioning demonstrably concentrates predictive uncertainty along interaction-constrained directions.
#02Nov 6, 2026
hep-lat
Machine learning for lattice QCD
Gurtej Kanwar, Scott Lawrence, Alessandro Nada and 1 more
Machine learning (ML) methods have been explored as a means of optimizing lattice field theory calculations, with increasing interest in recent years. This chapter gives an introduction and summary to the use of ML methods to optimize lattice field theory without introducing any uncontrolled approximations. We focus on those directions which are clearly established as of late 2025, marking the 50th anniversary of the beginning of the study of lattice gauge theory. This chapter is a contribution to the online book ``Lattice QCD at 50 years,'' (LQCD@50), edited by Tanmoy Bhattacharya, Maarten Golterman, Rajan Gupta, Laurent Lellouch, and Steve Sharpe.
#03Nov 6, 2026
cs.AI
On the Reliability of Majority-Vote Pseudo-Labels in Test-Time Reinforcement Learning
Haoyu Wang, Ru Wang, Yuanyuan Wang and 2 more
Test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) adapts pretrained language models to unlabeled target-domain data using self-generated pseudo-labels, whose reliability remains poorly understood. We analyze majority-vote supervision for TTRL with online Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and decompose its error into population-majority bias and prompt-dependent finite-rollout variation. Because population-majority bias is generally unidentifiable without external supervision, we focus on mitigating the downstream effects of finite-rollout variation. We propose \emph{Prompt-Conditional Distributionally Robust DPO (PC-Dr.DPO)}, which conditions within-prompt robust reweighting on observed vote reliability to make updates from sampling-sensitive prompts more conservative. We further introduce a cache-based mechanism to reduce self-supervised forgetting during online adaptation. Across six mathematical and knowledge-intensive reasoning benchmarks and five model backbones, PC-Dr.DPO matches or outperforms the strongest TTRL baseline in 24 of 30 settings.
#04Nov 6, 2026
cs.LG
Fifty-Two Shades of Pig: What the UCR Archive Really Asks Classifiers to Do
Omar Swelam, Jaris Küken, Shi Bin Hoo and 2 more
The pigs were bleeding. That was the point of the experiment: could airway pressure reveal hemorrhage before it became critical? In the UCR Time Series Classification Archive, the de facto benchmark for Time Series Classification (TSC), the same recordings ask a different question: "which of 52 pigs produced this trace?". The dataset PigAirwayPressure is not an outlier. Although the archive is the standard benchmark, whether its tasks resemble the problems TSC is meant to solve has rarely been examined. We find that several datasets are repurposed from their original task, built from toy setups, or have flawed test splits. We further question how representative the archive's ordered non-temporal sequences (e.g. spectra, shape outlines) are of real TSC, and the potential downsides from the decomposition of multivariate problems. Our findings call for more careful interpretation of archive-wide scores and greater attention to deployment-relevant evaluation. The audit is at https://github.com/automl/ucr-provenance-audit.
#05Nov 6, 2026
cs.AI
Knowing When to Intervene: Causal Evaluation of AI Agents
Ayush Sawarni, Wenqian Xing, Tijana Zrnic and 2 more
Current evaluations of agentic AI systems primarily rely on benchmarks. However, the static nature of benchmarks makes them uninformative about the value of auditing interventions at deployment time. For reliable deployment, we often need to determine within an agent's trajectory whether or not to intervene, e.g., by verifying the agent's current output or steering it toward different behavior, using either human review or more costly models or time-consuming agentic supervision. The value of such interventions is fundamentally a causal inference question, asking whether the causal effect of such an intervention is beneficial for the final outcome. Estimating this causal effect is particularly challenging due to the dynamic nature of the problem: the impact of an intervention depends on the current context and environment, as well as the agent's future behavior. We develop the first methodologically grounded framework for evaluating the causal effects of randomized interventions within agent trajectories. By leveraging a relatively small dataset of agent trajectories collected under randomized interventions such as verification or screening, we can estimate the dynamic causal effect of a rich class of (contextual) intervention policies. The structural parameters that we estimate can also be used to construct safety leaderboards that capture the risk of various agentic actions, which can be used by practitioners for audit prioritization. Applying our methods to tau-bench Retail, ToolSandbox, and ImpossibleBench, we find that intervention effects vary substantially across agent actions and states. More broadly, our work suggests a rich research agenda at the intersection of causal inference and agentic evaluation, which we believe is essential for the reliable and safe deployment of AI agents in the real world.