#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.CL
MedGraph: Maintaining Patient State with Graph Memory for Long-Term Medical Dialogue
Donghua Zhang, Zizheng Wang, Ze Dong and 2 more
LLM-based medical assistants that follow a patient across visits need a memory that keeps the patient's clinical state correct as it changes. We examine the errors of five memory systems on longitudinal medical dialogue and find three recurring causes: the retrieved evidence gives an outdated state, includes another person's health facts, or lacks a safety fact the answer depends on. We present MedGraph, a graph memory built for these three cases. Construction extracts dated facts from each session, attributes each fact to the person it describes, and links medication, diagnosis, and measurement records into chains that keep earlier states. Retrieval ranks the patient's chains as units, reads each chain at the time the question asks about, and adds the original dialogue text; a patient profile lists every recorded safety fact with every question. On MedMemoryBench, MedGraph has the highest overall accuracy with both a GPT and a Qwen backbone, 10.5 and 10.4 points above the strongest of five baselines, with efficient memory construction and answering in the GPT setting.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.AI
Scientist World: Grow a Research World for AI-Scientists
Taiming Lu, Sachin Konan, Zhuang Liu
AI-Scientists arrived, but a world for them to grow in did not. Human scientists take theirs for granted $-$ centuries of open problems and shared ideas, waiting in the scientific literature. To AI-Scientists, that world is readable but not runnable, so we build Scientist World for them: every research paper becomes an executable environment. Our autonomous pipeline extracts each paper's open-ended research question and reproduces its proposed method as the baseline; an AI-Scientist entering the environment is evaluated against what the human authors achieved. We release the first 1,000 verified environments. With the world as an evaluation, we found that frontier AI-Scientists can already surpass the human researchers 74% of the time. As a record of how AI does science, it contains 6,400 hours of research traces, with every idea, experiment, failure, and success. As a training ground, we are able to raise (+158%) a small model to match frontier models in research ideation. At last, AI-Scientists' own world has arrived, grown from and growing with science itself.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Muir: Linear Attention with Sensitivity-Allocated Gating and Matched-Filter Readout
Tushaar Gangavarapu, Gil Tabak, Clemens JS Schaefer
Linear attention compresses context into a fixed-size key-value state for linear-time training and constant-memory inference. Gated delta-rule models decay this state and erase its prediction for an incoming key before writing a new value; Gated DeltaNet-2 (GDN-2) generalizes this with channel-wise decay and decoupled, full-rank erase and write gates. However, we show that state updates are far less sensitive to erasure than to writes: key activation and unit normalization concentrate key energy onto a sparse subset of channels, whereas value writes scale all channels, so the erase gate can be parameterized at lower rank. Furthermore, slow-decaying state rows accumulate much larger norms than fast rows, dominating unweighted readout and forcing stronger write-time erasure to suppress interference. Guided by this analysis, we introduce Muir, which fuses all gates into a sensitivity-allocated low-rank projection, re-weights state rows with a matched-filter readout gate, and reinvests the saved parameters in a wider feed-forward network. Because standard chunkwise algorithms become numerically unstable at the large chunk sizes needed to saturate wide matrix units, we design a parallel update for stable, efficient training. Across 166M-1.34B parameters, Muir lowers perplexity by 1.8-2.0% over GDN-2 and 2.5-3.6% over Transformer, raises commonsense accuracy by up to 1.9 points, and improves extractive recall over GDN-2. At 1.34B, Muir outperforms both baselines on multi-hop and multi-needle recall, extrapolates 2,560x from its 4K training length to 10M-token streams without perplexity drift, and maintains near-100% passkey retrieval to 1M tokens with static readout. Muir achieves these gains while matching GDN-2 throughput, reaching its 100B-token validation loss 1.2x faster, and training 2.7x faster than Transformer at 32K.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.