#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.AI
Learning a patient world model for health system simulation in intensive care
Yingtai Li, Ruoyan Wang, Yu Li and 1 more
Designing healthcare strategies requires anticipating their clinical and operational consequences before implementation, a task that often relies on health system simulation. Such a simulation necessitates modeling how patient states evolve and generate care demands. However, conventional approaches typically tailor compact state transitions to a single policy question and omit history-dependent dynamics, thus requiring the redefinition of states and transitions when there is a new question that entails different clinical information. We propose to learn a patient world model from longitudinal EHRs using a neural network to provide a shared clinical representation of patient trajectories that can serve simulation questions across scenarios. Taking ICU operations as an example, we train the model on MIMIC-IV, freeze it, and couple its time-queryable predictions to shared ICU calendars, resources, and queues via scenario-specific mappings, so that one model renders admission demand, care tasks, and discharge proposals across simulations evaluating ICU bed capacity, care dispatch, and post-ICU transfer capacity. Experiments show that our model matches Markov and semi-Markov comparators in aggregate occupancy and directional responses to capacity and dispatch policies. It also reproduces policy gains from replayed observed trajectories. For patients entering the same support state from different prior trajectories, the learned representation captures a 24-h recovery difference (-6.4 predicted versus -6.7 observed percentage points), a contrast missed by compact state models, which propagates into distinct simulated care demand, queue burden, and bed use. These results indicate that a learned world model of patient dynamics has the potential to replace question-specific state models, allowing new care policies to be evaluated by reconfiguring the scenario without model rebuilding.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Towards interpreting any residual stream direction by scaling activation inversion
Celeste De Schamphelaere, Juan J. Vazquez, Ari Spiesberger and 4 more
To interpret a direction in a language model's residual stream, we can look for text that strongly activates it. But when such text is found by scanning a corpus, it is limited to what that corpus contains. We develop Maximally-Activating Example Metamodels (MAEMs), language models which map residual stream directions from a subject model to text exemplars that strongly activate those directions. Our objective is to maximise the cosine similarity of a supplied residual stream direction with the activations of the text generated by the MAEM. This label-free RL objective helps to scale MAEMs on diverse sources of residual stream directions. Empirically, we find the resultant metamodel produces informative exemplars: a Qwen3.6-27B MAEM inverts held-out activations better than corpus search or a natural-language autoencoder (NLA), beats corpus search (at 10M tokens) on a majority of held-out languages/domains, and activates 89% of held-out SAE features. It also identifies concepts behind steering vectors about as well as NLAs, recovers the payloads of LoRA backdoors more often than corpus search, and can even verbalise some model workspace inner monologue. Unlike explanations produced by other metamodels (e.g. NLAs), MAEM exemplars can be verified with a forward pass on the subject model, making the MAEM objective a grounded alternative for scaling the training of metamodels.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Same Behavior, Different Mechanism: What Finite Experiments Can Certify About Integrated Information
Linqian Wu, Diaoxuan He
Interpretability, AI auditing and assessments of machine consciousness increasingly rest on mechanism-level quantities: functionals of a system's causal transition law that describe how it computes, not what it outputs. Experiments see that law only through finite, partial and noisy interventions. We ask when such a quantity is identifiable from an experiment's access, continuous in the mechanism and certifiable from finite data, and answer exactly for a deliberately demanding case - the integrated information $\varphi$ of integrated information theory - in stochastic networks of four and five units with known ground truth. Behavior can be silent: a recurrent and a feed-forward network with identical input-output laws at their response delay carry 0.28 and 0 bits, yet internal recordings separate them within 4-53 trials. Partial access can be just as blind: in our examples, units left out of a one-step recording impose precision floors of 0.30-1.02 bits that no sample size lowers, and in all-but-self parity networks, recordings of any length see several hidden units only through the product of their fidelities - a symmetry that one intervention broke in exact checks. The measure has sharp edges: because $\varphi$ selects a partition, and the cause and effect it specifies, by one criterion and reports another, infinitesimal changes of mechanism that cross an edge change it by 25-100% at 99% of the edges we found in random networks, and about 1% of surrogate models that fit interventional data almost perfectly misreport it by more than 20%. One-sided claims survive: the same data certify a lower bound on both sides of an edge, and we prove $\varphi>1.004$ bits throughout a 64-dimensional region of mechanisms and certify it from about $10^7$ controlled transitions with false-certificate probability at most $α$. Measurability is thus a design question with computable answers.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
On the limitations of molecular representations
Acer Blake, Fergus Imrie, Charlotte M. Deane
Molecular representations such as fingerprints and learned embeddings play a central role in cheminformatics and small-molecule machine learning. They serve as the primary input for a diverse array of tasks, including clustering, dataset splitting, and virtual screening, yet their evaluation is often limited to downstream model performance on narrow benchmark tasks. We carried out a systematic investigation of the quality of molecular representations, finding that none of the state-of-the-art molecular embedding models capture graph structure, 3D shape, or ADMET endpoint similarity better than fingerprints or physicochemical descriptors. However, classical fingerprints also revealed their own material limitations. For example, we show that depending on the representation, between 225M and $\sim$4B molecules have non-unique representations in the 10.8B Enamine REAL database, with implications for virtual screening. Our findings provide an insight into the current limitations of molecular representations, outlining future research directions for the development of more robust encodings of small molecules.