#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.RO
Failure Prediction and Classification in Vision-Language-Action Models Via Calibrated Latent Probing
Michal P. Podolinsky, Yunhao Yang, Daniel Little and 6 more
Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) enable general-purpose embodied intelligence, but their performance is brittle under distribution shift, where unanticipated failures can damage equipment or endanger people. Deploying VLAs in real-world systems therefore requires a runtime monitor that is timely, calibrated, and informative while being efficient enough to run on the edge. Existing methods fail to fulfill these requirements. We present VLA-Tug, a lightweight probe over the latent layers of a VLA backbone that improves early failure detection and bounds the missed-detection and false-alarm rates, with minimal inference overhead. We show that supervising on the pre-failure segment of a trajectory increases early failure detection at matched false-positive rates by up to 30% over the strongest learned baseline. Under shift to unseen tasks, the bounds on missed-detection and false-alarm rates remain valid in up to 86% of runs, versus at most 21% for baselines. Unlike existing methods, VLA-Tug predicts the failure mode to enable corrective actions, raising top-3 accuracy on unseen tasks by up to 44% over a majority baseline. VLA-Tug enables real-time monitoring where the well-timed and informative probe supports lightweight steering that improves task success. We release a dataset of 3,180 annotated manipulation episodes to support future work on latent failure detection in VLAs at https://vla-tug.github.io.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Module-Aware Optimization for Graph Neural Networks
Guy Hadad, Haggai Roitman, Moshe Eliasof and 1 more
Different optimizers impose different geometries on parameter updates. Adaptive methods such as Adam and AdamW use coordinate-wise updates, while matrix-aware optimizers such as Muon utilize weight-matrix structure through orthogonalized updates. For Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), however, the effective geometry of its weight matrices is shaped not only by its learned channel-mixing weights, but also by the graph-propagated representations it acts on. Thus, even if an update is well normalized as a matrix, its effect on the layer output can be amplified when applied to graph-propagated features. To address this gap, we introduce GraphMuon, a graph-aware optimizer that adapts Muon's matrix updates to the covariance structure of graph-propagated layer inputs. GraphMuon performs orthogonalization in a metric defined by these propagated representations and normalizes step sizes according to the update's induced effect on the layer representation. We show that theoretically, vanilla Muon can suffer from graph-induced update amplification, while our GraphMuon can mitigate this effect. As such, our GraphMuon yields a graph-metric analogue of Muon's polar update step. Empirically, GraphMuon achieves $1.32\times$-$2.42\times$ validation-loss time-to-target speedups over AdamW on three large-scale OGB benchmarks. Across 15 dataset-architecture configurations spanning node classification, inductive graph classification, and graph regression, it achieves lower time-to-target in 13 cases, while maintaining competitive or superior predictive performance. Code is available at https://github.com/guy-hadad/GraphMuon.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.AI
Learning a patient world model for health system simulation in intensive care
Yingtai Li, Ruoyan Wang, Yu Li and 1 more
Designing healthcare strategies requires anticipating their clinical and operational consequences before implementation, a task that often relies on health system simulation. Such a simulation necessitates modeling how patient states evolve and generate care demands. However, conventional approaches typically tailor compact state transitions to a single policy question and omit history-dependent dynamics, thus requiring the redefinition of states and transitions when there is a new question that entails different clinical information. We propose to learn a patient world model from longitudinal EHRs using a neural network to provide a shared clinical representation of patient trajectories that can serve simulation questions across scenarios. Taking ICU operations as an example, we train the model on MIMIC-IV, freeze it, and couple its time-queryable predictions to shared ICU calendars, resources, and queues via scenario-specific mappings, so that one model renders admission demand, care tasks, and discharge proposals across simulations evaluating ICU bed capacity, care dispatch, and post-ICU transfer capacity. Experiments show that our model matches Markov and semi-Markov comparators in aggregate occupancy and directional responses to capacity and dispatch policies. It also reproduces policy gains from replayed observed trajectories. For patients entering the same support state from different prior trajectories, the learned representation captures a 24-h recovery difference (-6.4 predicted versus -6.7 observed percentage points), a contrast missed by compact state models, which propagates into distinct simulated care demand, queue burden, and bed use. These results indicate that a learned world model of patient dynamics has the potential to replace question-specific state models, allowing new care policies to be evaluated by reconfiguring the scenario without model rebuilding.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.AI
Benchmarks as Software: Terminal-Bench and the Case for Continuous Benchmarks
E. Kelly Buchanan, Crystal Zhou, Scott W. Linderman and 1 more
Coding agents are among the most economically consequential deployments of LLMs to date, making reliable evaluation increasingly important. Yet even benchmarks that are carefully validated at release can become stale. As models improve, they can discover valid solutions that existing verifiers reject, while changes to evaluation infrastructure can invalidate assumptions embedded in tasks and tests. We call the resulting accumulation of defects benchmark maintenance debt: a growing gap between benchmark scores and the capabilities they are intended to measure. We introduce a continuous-validation workflow for agentic benchmarks that combines community reports, task artifacts, agent traces, automated oracle checks, and human-gated repairs. We apply this workflow to Terminal-Bench 2.0, a benchmark that underwent extensive human and LM-assisted review and red-teaming before release. Our audit identifies issues in roughly 30% of the benchmark, and we release the resulting repairs as Terminal-Bench 2.1. These repairs change evaluation results: accuracy increased by over 10 percentage points and leaderboard positions move by up to three ranks, even as the overall ranking remains highly correlated (Spearman rho = 0.958). We evaluate how resource allocation shapes benchmark conclusions. We show that fixed wall-clock can materially change agent performance: For example, extending the time limit closes a 20pp harness gap on GPT 5.4 and shrinks a 30 pp gap on GPT 5.4 mini to 5 pp. Benchmark maintenance is therefore not only about repairing task artifacts: resource budgets are part of the measurement specification and must be validated alongside the tasks themselves. More broadly, benchmark maintenance debt is not just accumulated implementation bugs: our results show that as models improve, both evaluation assumptions and resource settings may need to be revalidated.