#01Nov 4, 2026
cs.LG
Context--Answer Metamodels: Forecasting LLM Activations Before the First Answer Token
Tommy He, Thomas Jiralerspong
Under stochastic decoding, a single context can elicit many different answers from a language model. Characterizing this variation typically requires many expensive autoregressive rollouts, each revealing only one realization. We ask whether the activations produced while reading the context can directly forecast the model's rollout activations. We train context--answer metamodels that map a context activation sequence to point or distribution forecasts of mean-pooled answer activations. We find that (i) the four metamodel families we study forecast mean-pooled answer activations with high fidelity, and the distribution metamodels also capture rollout variability; (ii) performance improves as the training set grows to 500,000 prompts, and the metamodels generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain datasets; (iii) their forecasts retain behavior-predictive signal; and (iv) context activations from Qwen2.5 predict mean-pooled answer activations from Qwen3.5 and Gemma 4, suggesting that activation forecasts can transfer across models. Together, these results suggest that context activation traces can support scalable forecasts of behaviors in LLM answers before the first answer token is generated.
#02Nov 4, 2026
physics.flu-dyn
FlowReconBench: Accuracy, calibration and cost of learned and classical flow reconstruction from sparse sensors
Nicolas Tricard, Linzheng Wang, Jason Chen and 1 more
Reconstructing full flow fields from sparse sensors requires prior assumptions about unmeasured regions and physical variables. Yet it remains unclear when learned models outperform classical estimators and which aspects of their predictions can be trusted. FlowReconBench evaluates ten learned and five classical methods on three regimes: a laminar cylinder wake across Reynolds numbers, two-dimensional Kolmogorov turbulence and a large-scale three-dimensional (3D) isotropic turbulence. Methods share leakage-controlled splits and sensor draws and are scored on per-channel error, ensemble spread, calibration, spectra and cost. The leading method changes for each regime. Classical methods perform strongly in low-order and dense-sensing regimes. On the cylinder wake, linear stochastic estimation and gappy proper orthogonal decomposition lead, including for unobserved pressure. In 3D, inverse-distance weighting matches the best learned methods on observed channels. Data-driven methods become superior at decreasing sensor density or poor sensor observability. On Kolmogorov flow, continuous ranked probability score and error yield different method rankings: generative models offer broader but underdispersed ensembles, while deterministic models prioritize pointwise error. Generative models balance this tradeoff through their sampler budget, with a larger budget improving ensemble quality at higher computational cost. In 3D, scaling tests demonstrate that queryable methods are flat in memory, while full-grid construction methods run out of memory. Observing only 2 of 4 fields leaves the problem kinematically underconstrained, yet a latent model can reproduce structural similarities to the ground truth.
#03Nov 4, 2026
cs.CV
Turns Matter: Advancing Streaming Video RL via Turn-Level Credit
Shuai Dong, Kanghui Tian, Linghan Chen and 20 more
Streaming video understanding requires models to repeatedly decide whether to respond or continue observing. Recently, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has been applied to this setting, with existing approaches emphasizing reward design while retaining a single trajectory-level advantage across turns. Such shared credit can reinforce redundant replies after earlier successes and discourage useful follow-ups after earlier failures. We propose TurnWise, a turn-level GRPO framework that aligns learning with individual streaming decisions. TurnWise addresses the mismatch between trajectory-level feedback and turn-level interaction, promoting informative responses and reducing redundancy. Specifically, turn-level credit assignment uses silence-completed prefix scoring to construct group-relative advantages from each decision's remaining return, separating its learning signal from earlier rewards. Turn-mean policy optimization averages token losses within each turn and then across turns, giving response and waiting decisions equal weight regardless of output length. These complementary designs improve streaming policy learning without a learned critic or additional rollouts. Extensive experiments show our method outperforms prior RL approaches for streaming video understanding.
#04Nov 4, 2026
cs.LG
Reinforcement Learning Enables Scaling Generalist Robot Policy Improvement
Michal Korniak, Marco Bagatella, Ralf Römer and 21 more
The introduction of generalist robot policies has enabled a single, large model to learn to perform a variety of tasks from a vast pre-training corpus. While these models often exhibit powerful zero-shot generalization capabilities, they typically require an adaptation phase to achieve sufficient performance in deployment. Iterated self-improvement via reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated promise in enabling this adaptation, yet such approaches have been largely explored in single-task settings - where the goal is to simply improve on a narrow deployment task - which lies in stark contrast to the multi-task capabilities of the base policy. In this work we ask whether generalist robot policies are capable of multi-task, generalist improvement in deployment - targeting many diverse tasks simultaneously - and what algorithmic recipe enables this. To answer this question, we first develop a set of structured evaluations to test generalist improvement capabilities, and systematically evaluate algorithmic and practical design choices regarding value estimation, policy extraction and resource allocation. We show that not only can generalist policies be improved online across diverse tasks, but that the right recipe can enable generalization and increase performance on tasks not considered during online training. We characterize when this generalization occurs and show that both the training task distribution and the use of value-based RL are critical. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first evidence for online generalist improvement for robot foundation models.
#05Nov 4, 2026
cs.LG
FedFiOT: Fisher-Weighted Optimal Transport for Model Merging in One-Shot and Few-Round Federated Learning
Quan Minh Nguyen, Hoang M. Ngo, Bhakti Chowkwale and 2 more
One-shot and few-round federated learning (FL) reduce communication burden by constructing a global model within one or a few communication rounds, but often achieve lower performance than conventional multi-round FL. Without frequent synchronization, client models may drift apart, causing neurons that learn similar features to occupy different positions across clients. At the same time, local data heterogeneity can cause corresponding parameters to differ in their importance to each client's predictions. Together, these challenges cause direct averaging to combine mismatched neurons and assign equal weight to parameters despite differences in their importance. We propose FedFiOT, a Fisher-weighted optimal transport framework for one-shot and few-round FL that leverages Fisher information to quantify parameter importance and guide neuron alignment and model aggregation. FedFiOT jointly optimizes neuron correspondences and global model parameters through alternating minimization of a shared Fisher-weighted objective. Theoretically, we show that FedFiOT's optimization procedure monotonically decreases the layer-wise merging objective and establish a stationarity bound that quantifies the effects of client heterogeneity and nonuniform Fisher weighting.Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over competing baselines in both one-shot and few-round federated learning settings.