#01Jul 16, 2026
cs.LG
Data Driven Block Replacement Scheduling
Aniruddhan Ganesaraman, VIdyadhar Kulkarni
We develop data-driven algorithms for maintaining $N$ independent identical machines under a \textit{block replacement policy}, in which each machine is replaced upon failure and all machines are jointly replaced at regular intervals of length $k$. The goal is to learn the cost-minimizing interval $k^*$ from operational data when the lifetime distribution is unknown. At each decision epoch, the operator selects $k \in \{1, 2, \ldots, K\}$, observes the resulting failure history (a mixture of complete and right-censored lifetimes) and incurs a per-unit-time cost governed by the renewal function. We formulate this as a stochastic multi-armed bandit and propose Hoeffding- and Bernstein-based lower-confidence-bound algorithms achieving $O(K \log T)$ regret, matching the Lai--Robbins lower bound. Exploiting a nested observation property unique to block replacement, correlated variants attain $O((K-k^*)\log T)$ regret and require only $O(1)$ direct pulls of suboptimal arms $k < k^*$. A complementary Kaplan--Meier renewal algorithm estimates the lifetime distribution nonparametrically from censored data, achieving almost-sure policy consistency and empirically near-zero incremental regret at long horizons. We additionally analyze two average-cost MDPs: a time-elapsed formulation establishing that block replacement is optimal within its policy class for any lifetime distribution, and an age-vector formulation proving a monotone threshold structure under increasing failure rate distributions and providing a gold-standard cost benchmark. Numerical experiments confirm the theoretical ordering and reveal structural cost gaps between optimal block and age-dependent replacement.
#02Jul 16, 2026
cs.LG
Causal Inference for Sequential Settings under Interference and Latent Confounding
Phevos Paschalidis, Constantinos Daskalakis, Devavrat Shah
We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings. Specifically, we consider settings where the binary outcomes over N units are Markovian across T time steps. At each time step, the outcomes of N units have dependencies captured through an Ising model; each outcome is also impacted through an external field capturing the effects of its treatment as well as latent confounders. Similar to panel data literature, these latent confounders are modeled to have a low-rank factor structure. Our data is a single sample from this high-dimensional distribution. To estimate causal quantities of interest, we provide a computationally efficient method based on Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood Estimation (MPLE) for learning the model parameters. Under mild assumptions, we establish non-asymptotic consistency for parameter estimation and show this translates to faithful estimation of causal quantities of interest after sampling from the learned model. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method through synthetic experiments as well as a real-world case-study investigating causal effects of vaccine rates on COVID-19 death rates within US counties nationwide.
#03Jul 16, 2026
stat.ML
cGAP: Generalized Association Plots with HOMALS-Guided Heatmaps for Visualization of High-Dimensional Categorical Data
Chun-houh Chen, Shun-Chuan Chang, Chiun-How Kao and 5 more
High-dimensional categorical data arise in genetics, biomedicine, and the social sciences, yet visualization tools for such data remain far less developed than those for continuous variables. Existing methods either scale poorly, rely heavily on low-dimensional displays detached from the original data matrix, or prioritize predictive accuracy over interpretability. To address this gap, we introduce categorical Generalized Association Plots (cGAP), a visualization framework for nominal, ordinal, and binary data that preserves the original data matrix while augmenting it with interpretable geometric structure. cGAP uses Homogeneity Analysis (HOMALS) to embed subjects and category levels in a three-dimensional Euclidean space and maps the embedding to red-green-blue coordinates so that similar patterns receive similar colors. The framework integrates three coordinated views: a HOMALS-guided heatmap of the raw data matrix, a subject proximity matrix, and a variable proximity matrix. Seriation algorithms are then used to reorder rows and columns to reveal coherent clusters, outliers, and local-to-global structure. We also derive barycentric traceability, projection-distortion, and contrast-preservation properties that clarify how embedding geometry is transferred to the display. We demonstrate the versatility of cGAP through applications to student-animal classification data, mammalian dentition profiles, mushroom records from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, and the Clusters of Orthologous Genes database. These examples show that cGAP supports transparent exploratory analysis by maintaining traceability between derived visual structure and the original categorical observations. cGAP provides a full-matrix, heatmap-based visualization environment for investigating complex categorical datasets across scientific domains.
#04Jul 16, 2026
stat.CO
Delocalization of bias in unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and underdamped Langevin
Yifan Chen, Xiaoou Cheng, Jonathan Niles-Weed and 1 more
Unadjusted samplers such as unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and underdamped Langevin are well-known to be biased. Metropolis--Hastings adjustment has been conventionally incorporated into Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to eliminate the bias. However, this adjustment can significantly increase the iteration complexity due to the small step size required for reasonable Metropolis acceptance rates. In this work, we extend the \emph{delocalization of bias} phenomenon, previously established for the overdamped Langevin algorithm, to these two unadjusted algorithms. We show that to control the $W_2$ bias of any $K$-dimensional marginal of a high-dimensional distribution, $O(\sqrt{K})$ integration steps suffice up to $\log d$ terms, assuming either weak or sparse interactions among variables. The discrete-time integrators here introduce technical difficulties beyond those of the overdamped setting, which we address through a broadly applicable matrix-polynomial framework that characterizes their propagators. Our result for the underdamped Langevin algorithm is valid for all large friction parameters, implying that the Leimkuhler-Matthews integrator for the overdamped Langevin dynamics also exhibits delocalization of bias.
#05Jul 16, 2026
cs.LG
Kernel weighted importance sampling for off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits
Joshua Spear, Matthieu Komorowski, Rebecca Pope and 2 more
This article presents a novel estimator for performing off-policy evaluation using only offline data for contextual bandits. The proposed estimator, Kernel-WIS is demonstrated to be asymptotically consistent and to empirically outperform strong baselines (including vanilla weighted importance sampling), particularly under complex conditions including behaviour policy miss-specification. The benefit of Kernel-WIS is derived from combining the bounded property of vanilla weighted importance sampling with the linearity of vanilla importance sampling.