#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
A Hidden Markov Preference Model for Online Prediction of Adversary Actions
Angel Daruna, Michael Cogswell, Tixiao Shan and 3 more
A defender anticipating an attacker needs a probability distribution over the attacker's next action from information available before that action occurs. Two structures complicate this: the attacker's behavioral regime persists and can switch within an episode, and each action combines an operation with state-dependent arguments whose feasible values change over time. We capture both with a hidden Markov model whose latent state is the active regime and whose regime-conditioned action law is defined on a feasibility-masked tree of executable actions. The same likelihood forms the next-action distribution and updates the regime belief once the action is seen, and a partially observed prefix contributes its resolved local factors. Estimation separates into convex logistic fits that Baum-Welch reuses when regimes are unlabeled. We derive a reach-weighted nodewise KL expression for regime information, a sequence-wise log-loss bound for switching regime paths, and a uniform fallback guarantee. On the CAGE 2 cyber defense benchmark the filtered latent state is worth 0.8 nats per step, and after a controller switch the loss begins to fall in three steps against ten for a recurrent baseline.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
On the limitations of molecular representations
Acer Blake, Fergus Imrie, Charlotte M. Deane
Molecular representations such as fingerprints and learned embeddings play a central role in cheminformatics and small-molecule machine learning. They serve as the primary input for a diverse array of tasks, including clustering, dataset splitting, and virtual screening, yet their evaluation is often limited to downstream model performance on narrow benchmark tasks. We carried out a systematic investigation of the quality of molecular representations, finding that none of the state-of-the-art molecular embedding models capture graph structure, 3D shape, or ADMET endpoint similarity better than fingerprints or physicochemical descriptors. However, classical fingerprints also revealed their own material limitations. For example, we show that depending on the representation, between 225M and $\sim$4B molecules have non-unique representations in the 10.8B Enamine REAL database, with implications for virtual screening. Our findings provide an insight into the current limitations of molecular representations, outlining future research directions for the development of more robust encodings of small molecules.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.AI
SwarmEvolve: Latent Agent Swarms for Evolutionary Discovery and Optimization
Qile Jiang, George Em Karniadakis
LLM-guided evolutionary search uses AI agents to improve programs for mathematical and computational problems by iteratively refining solutions and combining high-scoring methods. However, the process is often slow because the LLM generates a long textual chain of thought for each round and must repeat this generation many times to maintain population diversity. We present SwarmEvolve, a framework in which hundreds of low-cost agents per round work in swarms, reason in latent space without decoding to text, and share information by passing KV caches. Each swarm studies the problem from a different angle. A novelty filter keeps the most distinct agent ideas by directly measuring the distances between the agents' hidden state vectors. Crossover of ideas happens naturally in latent space, as a summarizer agent receives the combined KV caches of all swarm members. On 21 problems in mathematical discovery and scientific computing, SwarmEvolve gets the highest average score and needs a median of only 3 to 8 minutes to reach the best scores that other state-of-the-art frameworks reach in 60 minutes. On several problems, SwarmEvolve with Qwen3 8B improves on the solutions that AlphaEvolve first found with frontier LLMs. Our work shows that agent swarms that communicate in latent space offer a fast, low-cost approach to program search for scientific problems.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Hybrid Machine Learning for Imbalanced Landing-Phase Safety Event Prediction from Flight Data
Taha Asghar, Bilal Mufti, Syed Qasim Zaheer and 1 more
Landing-phase safety-event prediction requires the detection of rare abnormal approaches within strongly imbalanced multivariate flight data. Capturing coupled temporal behavior while distinguishing event-specific signatures across airport operating contexts remains a central modeling challenge. This study proposes an interpretable hybrid feature-fusion framework for multiclass landing-phase safety-event prediction. A long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder trained on nominal flight windows characterizes deviations from routine approach behavior. Its continuous reconstruction-error descriptor is fused with parameter-specific statistical flight-history features and supplied to a class-weighted XGBoost classifier to distinguish Normal, Speed High, Path High, and Flaps Late windows. The framework is evaluated using 53,750 NASA DASHlink approach windows from three arrival airports. Pooled and airport-specific learning strategies are compared alongside component-level benchmarks, repeated pipeline retraining, and feature-attribution analysis. The results demonstrate strong class-balanced detection, with mean macro recall above 0.90 across all airports under repeated partitioning and retraining. Component comparisons establish the importance of class weighting and show that continuous feature fusion outperforms reconstruction-error-only and hard-gate alternatives. Airport-level comparisons reveal benefits from local specialization at the two airports with larger datasets and from pooled training at the airport with the smallest dataset. Feature attributions associate predictions with operationally relevant vertical-path, configuration, speed, and approach-context variables. The framework provides an interpretable approach to rare-event detection and practical guidance for adapting flight-data monitoring models to airport-level data availability.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.CL
MedGraph: Maintaining Patient State with Graph Memory for Long-Term Medical Dialogue
Donghua Zhang, Zizheng Wang, Ze Dong and 2 more
LLM-based medical assistants that follow a patient across visits need a memory that keeps the patient's clinical state correct as it changes. We examine the errors of five memory systems on longitudinal medical dialogue and find three recurring causes: the retrieved evidence gives an outdated state, includes another person's health facts, or lacks a safety fact the answer depends on. We present MedGraph, a graph memory built for these three cases. Construction extracts dated facts from each session, attributes each fact to the person it describes, and links medication, diagnosis, and measurement records into chains that keep earlier states. Retrieval ranks the patient's chains as units, reads each chain at the time the question asks about, and adds the original dialogue text; a patient profile lists every recorded safety fact with every question. On MedMemoryBench, MedGraph has the highest overall accuracy with both a GPT and a Qwen backbone, 10.5 and 10.4 points above the strongest of five baselines, with efficient memory construction and answering in the GPT setting.