#01Oct 19, 2026
stat.ML
Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Market Making on Prediction-Market Order Books
Skander Lejmi
A market maker provides liquidity by quoting prices to buy and sell an asset, earning the spread while managing inventory risk. We study market makers trained with multi-agent reinforcement learning on prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, whose thin order books pose distinct challenges. Three challenges underpin this research: adverse selection may cause a policy trained on real data to stop quoting; the consequences of a quote can arrive many steps after the action; and prediction-market L2 data does not identify individual orders needed for simulation. We address these challenges by reconstructing order-level LOBSTER-format data from Polymarket and training agents in JaxMARL-HFT on 417 real markets. We enrich the baseline market maker's observation space with the book and recent flow, redesign its actions and inventory controls, and propose a cooperative multi-agent decomposition into a quoter and a risk manager trained using recurrent Independent Proximal Policy Optimisation (IPPO) with RNN policies. We investigate reward shaping, particularly reward blending and post-fill markout, to mitigate credit-assignment difficulties between the agents. Our redesigned single-agent market maker quotes more frequently and incurs smaller held-out losses than the retrained JaxMARL-HFT baseline, although the contributions of jointly changed observations, actions and risk constraints are not separately identified. Decomposition alone performs poorly; careful reward design substantially improves the desk relative to the unshaped split and yields our best result. Models are evaluated on realised end-of-episode portfolio value on held-out markets. None establishes positive average portfolio value in periodic held-out evaluation, and each configuration was trained with one seed. The environment, data and protocol lay a foundation for makers that quote many linked markets at once.
#02Oct 19, 2026
cs.LG
CAVA: Complementary-Label-Aware Data Valuation
Tan-Ha Mai, Hsuan-Tien Lin, Vu Nguyen
Complementary-label learning (CLL) trains a classifier from labels that name a class an instance does not belong to. Such labels are cheap to collect from crowdworkers or vision-language models (VLMs), making them attractive for large-scale annotation. However, both sources can mistakenly assign the true class as the complementary label. Such annotation errors are particularly harmful in CLL because the model is explicitly trained to suppress the correct answer. Optimal transport (OT) data valuation identifies harmful samples by comparing training data with a clean validation set, but transferring it directly to CLL creates a semantic mismatch: label $c$ means not class $c$ in the training but class $c$ in the validation. We show that this makes the OT label groups noisy mixtures whose behavior depends on the noise rate. The transferred score is informative only at sufficiently high noise, becomes uninformative at the crossover rate $1/M$ for $M$ classes, and reverses below it, where practical CLL annotation typically operates. We propose CAVA, which introduces a complementary label cost and a label margin that isolates the contribution of each complementary label to the transport potential. The margin keeps a consistent direction across noise rates, detects diagonal noise with a parameter-free threshold of closed-form precision, and allows detected samples to be recycled as ordinary-label supervision. On synthetic and human-annotated benchmarks, CAVA separates diagonal noise almost perfectly where directly transferred OT valuation performs worse than random. With only a fraction of the clean validation data, it also improves every CLL objective we evaluate, showing that OT-based valuation becomes reliable once the semantics of complementary supervision are modeled explicitly.
#03Oct 19, 2026
cs.AI
ProteinGeoBench: Frontier Structural-Biology Agents Are Fluent at Lookup but Lost in Geometry
Matt Turk, Brandon L. Neel, Diana M. Lopez and 3 more
Frontier agents retrieve structural metadata well and compute geometry from coordinates less reliably. We ask how much of a benchmark score reflects that gap and how much reflects the evaluation configuration around the model. We study ProteinGeoBench, a suite of 131 protein-structure tasks, using 4,249 rollouts from four frontier models and 4,486 further trials across 26 models. Three of the four frontier models fall within 0.031 of one another (0.785 to 0.816) with no difference between them resolved, while the fourth scores 0.707 and all three gaps to it exclude zero. Three of the four do better on metadata lookup than on numeric calculation. The fourth is slightly better on numeric. Numeric tasks are 28 of the 131 but half of the twelve tasks that all four models fail. The ranking also depends on the evaluation budget: with one run per task, 23.9% of bootstrap replicates put a different model first. On a selected 15-task slice, removing network access lowers scores more than blocking eight structural-database domains, but the two contrasts were graded in different passes and cannot be cleanly decomposed. Swapping in each model's own command-line agent changes scores by -0.071 to +0.086, a comparison too small to rule out moderate harness effects. Across 26 models, numeric performance rises with non-numeric performance rather than staying flat. The experiments use different task subsets, so they cannot rank model, harness, access and task composition against one another. Evaluations should report results by task family, along with the number of runs, the harness and the access conditions.
#04Oct 19, 2026
cs.AR
Injection of Space Radiation Errors on Low-power NVM using Generative Deep Learning
Eleonora Giudici, Antonio Miele, Luca Mottola
We develop an error model for a Non-Volatile Memory (NVM) device that represents the effects of physical faults experienced in a CubeSat mission in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The CubeSat carries an off-the-shelf low-power Ferroelectric RAM (FRAM) chip and runs repeated read/write tests according to a predefined pattern. We compare every memory snapshot received from the satellite with a reference bitmap to identify bit errors. We visually analyze erroneous values distributions in the memory snapshots and we understand that they are frequently distributed according to regular spatial patterns. We define a generative deep learning technique to automatically learn these spatial patterns and to synthetically generate additional error patterns mimicking the observed ones. The model is capable at producing memory errors for general application-level experimentation. Our preliminary validation indicates that when comparing the model output with the data we collect, 0.92 of the generated bit flips correspond to bit flips in the memory snapshots and the model captures 0.91 of the observed bit flips. A comparison of the spatial distribution of bit flips in 10,000 generated error patterns also provides a Wasserstein distance of 0.073, indicating that the two distributions differ by roughly 7% of the maximum possible displacement of their probability masses.
#05Oct 19, 2026
cs.LG
Next Best Action: Causal Constrained Offline RL for Business Action Targeting
Surya Ramachandiran, Yiming Li, Juan Mancilla-Caceres and 2 more
Next Best Action (NBA) systems must select among customer interventions (e.g., discounts, promotions, and lifecycle actions), maximize long-term economic value, satisfy complex operational constraints, and remain causally grounded. Existing approaches lack a rigorous framework for meeting these requirements jointly. We address this gap by formulating NBA as a Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP). We then integrate off-policy causal correction of the estimated customer dynamics directly into the Linear Programming (LP) formulation of the CMDP. The resulting policy selects actions based on customer states to maximize long-term value while explicitly enforcing business guardrails. Furthermore, the LP formulation yields shadow prices that quantify the economic trade-offs of operational constraints (e.g., fairness and user welfare), enhancing policy interpretability. We validate our proposed offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework on an industry case study involving rideshare coupon targeting, where customer states are defined by Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) stages. We evaluate performance using model-based off-policy evaluation, with causal dynamics estimated from a temporal holdout. Under the observed coupon budget and RFM state representation, our optimized policy improves customer lifetime value (LTV) by 19% over the estimated behavior policy and 8% over a myopic baseline. Although the demonstrated action space is binary, the proposed framework is action-agnostic, yielding a general-purpose decision module for targeting systems that manage multiple interventions.