#01Jul 23, 2026
cs.LG
Beyond Sufficiency: Time Series Explanation with Counterfactual Necessity
Hongnan Ma, Yiwei Shi, Mengyue Yang and 1 more
Faithful explanations of time-series classifiers should identify subsequences that are not only sufficient to preserve a black-box model's prediction, but also necessary for maintaining it. However, existing sufficiency-oriented methods can assign high importance to spurious subsequences that support the prediction without being essential to the model's decision. We introduce \textbf{TimePNS}, a necessity-aware framework for time-series explanation. Inspired by Pearl's counterfactual notion of necessity, TimePNS assesses whether a temporal factor is necessary by intervening on it and measuring whether the original prediction is disrupted. The framework adopts a two-stage design. Stage I learns an identifiable causal generative process together with a sufficiency-oriented explanation mask. Stage II performs counterfactual interventions on temporal factors to derive necessity signals, which supervise a temporal gate that refines the initial explanation by suppressing non-essential components and emphasizing counterfactually necessary ones. Experiments on synthetic and real-world time-series benchmarks show that TimePNS more accurately identifies decision-critical subsequences and consistently improves sufficiency-necessity trade-offs over strong baselines.
#02Jul 23, 2026
cs.AI
Unsupervised Consensus-Based Anomaly Detection for Spatiotemporal Malaria Incidence in Ghana
T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane
A consensus anomaly detection framework was applied to monthly malaria surveillance data from Ghana (2014-2023) to identify atypical transmission patterns. Anomalies were highly structured in space and time. Ashanti and Northern Regions accounted for most recurrent anomalies, with persistent hotspots at Tamale, Kumasi, and Accra. A key finding was the spatial distinction between anomaly burden (cumulative cases during anomalous periods) and anomaly frequency (persistence of unusual behaviour). Tamale had the highest burden during anomalies, whereas the highest anomaly rates clustered in Ashanti districts, showing that high-burden areas are not necessarily those with the most frequent anomalous transmission. Anomalous months formed a statistically distinct group, with much higher case counts (Cohen's $d = 3.252$) and large seasonal deviations ($d > 1.2$) compared with normal months. Malaria burden alone provides an incomplete picture of transmission dynamics. By distinguishing where malaria is most prevalent from where transmission behaves most unusually, this framework can strengthen surveillance, prioritise investigations, and support targeted control strategies.
#03Jul 23, 2026
cs.CL
Token Budget Saturation and Mechanistic Early Detection of Reasoning Non-Convergence in Chain-of-Thought Models
Renuka Oladri, Niveda Jawahar, Abdirisak Mohamed
Chain-of-thought reasoning models such as DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B exhibit a bimodal convergence pattern: generations either terminate within a token budget (converged) or exhaust it without reaching a conclusion (non-converged). We characterize this phenomenon empirically, showing that converged generations achieve 90.3% accuracy on AIME 1983-2024 while non-converged ones achieve only 6.6%, with an overall convergence rate of 62.0%. We then ask whether this outcome is detectable early in the thinking chain using internal model representations. Training linear probes on hidden-state activations at token positions 50-300, we find that layer-20 activations at token 150 achieve AUC 0.608 (+-0.080, 5-fold CV), reliably above chance even at token 50. Activation probes consistently outperform behavioral baselines derived from token entropy and repetition statistics. A sweep-level permutation test yields p=0.063 (100,000 permutations), consistent with a modest signal that our sample size cannot confirm at conventional thresholds. These findings suggest that convergence fate is partially encoded in intermediate representations well before the generation ends, opening a path toward early-exit inference and adaptive compute allocation.
#04Jul 23, 2026
cs.LG
Error Certificates for KV-Cache Eviction via Randomized Design
Peng Xie
Deterministic KV-cache eviction keeps the top-$k$ tokens under an importance score and deletes the rest. We prove that this design cannot know what it destroyed: evicted values can be altered so that everything the serving system retains is unchanged while the true attention-output error grows arbitrarily, so no serving-time estimator of that error is consistent. Randomized eviction restores identifiability. With a Poisson-sampled tail at known inclusion probabilities, one logit offset performs the Hájek correction inside the softmax, and a survey-sampling variance estimator over the retained set becomes a per-step error certificate with 0.97 empirical coverage at no accuracy cost. On real workloads we pre-registered seven claims and lost three: question-aware eviction at 25--50\% budgets is nearly free; output log-probability predicts failure better than the certificate; certificate-gated budget escalation adds nothing. What survives is attribution: the certificate separates cache-induced from inherent failures (AUC 0.73--0.75, against 0.47--0.54 for output confidence) and schedules recomputation better than random or confidence gating. Randomization buys attribution, not prediction.
#05Jul 23, 2026
cs.LG
Test-Time Scaling via Error Localization
Rajiv Shailesh Chitale, Rahul Madhavan, Taneesh Gupta and 2 more
Scaling inference-time computation has emerged as a reliable method to improve the performance of large language models on complex reasoning and programming tasks. However, standard approaches such as independent sampling and sequential multi-turn refinement operate without token-level credit assignment, resulting in computational inefficiency, since valid reasoning prefixes are frequently discarded. In this work, we introduce Test-Time Scaling via Error Localization (TTEL), an inference-time algorithm that utilizes fixed or environment feedback to perform token-level error localization. By comparing conditional probabilities under informed feedback against a null-context baseline, TTEL isolates the step at which an error occurred. The algorithm then truncates the trajectory and branches a new generation, maximally reusing the valid prefix. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that TTEL establishes strictly dominating Pareto frontiers across sequential reasoning domains, measured by pass-at-k vs. generated-token cost. With Qwen3-8B on LiveCodeBench, TTEL attains a pass@64 of 71.0% while generating approximately half as many tokens as independent sampling (360.4k vs. 735.0k). Generalizing to math benchmarks AIME-2025 and HMMT-2025, TTEL cleanly outperforms competing test-time baselines across both Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507.