#01Aug 20, 2026
cs.AI
Phantom Gains: Auditing Self-Improvement Against a Measured Null
Cheng Xu, Nan Yan, Liming Chen and 1 more
Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-$32$ LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a frozen control pushed through the identical pipeline, we identify seven measurement failures, each of which inverts a reported finding when its control is absent. Several are standard practice. A ledger built on a single greedy decode manufactures capability changes on an untrained model, largely an artifact of inference batching; the expansion statistic separating acquisition from sharpening assigns that same model a rate of $0.280$. The natural threshold repair does not survive replication: estimated across the frozen comparisons such a design already contains, its null stays non-zero. We replace it with a per-problem exact test against a pooled baseline under false-discovery-rate control, which detects nothing on any held-out replicate and is unchanged under the multiple-testing rule, error rate and pool size. Applied to a ladder of arms matched in stream, volume and evaluation, the audit finds that external distillation improves problems the base model rarely reaches while three forms of self-training do not; a regression rejects this asymmetry as a by-product of distillation's larger overall gain ($p < 10^{-8}$). On the far smaller set of problems the base model never reaches, the evidence is inconclusive, while self-training corrupts problems solved at baseline at rates well above the measured floor. Transition-level auditing therefore requires a separately measured null for every statistic it reports: nulls that cost no new experiments, built from baseline replicates a multi-arm study already owns, though not from as few as most possess.
#02Aug 20, 2026
cs.CV
4DAnyone: Create Anyone in 4D from a Casual Monocular Video
Yudong Jin, Tao Xie, Qihang Zhang and 6 more
We present 4DAnyone, a framework for reconstructing 4D humans from an uncalibrated monocular video by generating reconstruction-grade multiview-consistent videos and lifting them into 4D Gaussian Splatting (4DGS). Existing camera-controlled video diffusion models synthesize plausible novel-view videos but fail to maintain consistency when scaled to the tens of target views required for 4DGS reconstruction. We identify this failure as a bounded-attention-context problem: when target views exceed the capacity of a single DiT forward pass, they must be split into groups, exposing two coupled bottlenecks. On the reference-context side, conditioning on all previously generated views grows as $O(N)$, weakening cross-view appearance guidance. On the target-context side, disjoint groups cannot directly exchange information, causing global structural drift. 4DAnyone addresses both bottlenecks with two complementary designs: Reference Context Packing (RCP) compresses growing reference views into a fixed-length mixed-resolution context with $O(1)$ reference-context complexity, while Target Context Routing (TCR) rotates target-view groupings during denoising to share context across groups at high-noise steps and stabilize details at low-noise steps. We further build the MVGameHuman dataset using our in-house game engine and combine it with light-stage and in-the-wild video datasets for training. Experiments on DNA-Rendering and DyMVHumans show that 4DAnyone outperforms prior methods in both novel-view video quality and downstream 4DGS reconstruction, with robust in-the-wild generalization. See our project page for video results and source code: https://4danyone.github.io.
#03Aug 20, 2026
cs.LG
DICS: Data-Informed Centroid Splitting for Decision Tree Classifiers
MD Saifur Rahman Mazumder, Feng Yu
Decision tree-based models are widely used in machine learning due to their interpretability and strong empirical performance. However, training decision trees can be computationally expensive, particularly for large and high-dimensional datasets, largely due to the exhaustive search over candidate splits at each node. To improve computational efficiency, we propose Data-Informed Centroid Splitting (DICS), a clustering-based framework that constructs a compact and informative set of candidate splits using data-driven priors. By incorporating class-aware structure, DICS significantly reduces the split search space for classification tasks while preserving predictive performance. We further provide theoretical analysis showing that under the stated assumptions, DICS does not degrade the performance of classification trees compared to exhaustive split search. DICS can be incorporated into classification trees, random forests, and gradient-boosting models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DICS achieves comparable accuracy while substantially reducing training time across synthetic and benchmark datasets, highlighting the benefit of integrating data-informed priors into split selection for scalable classification tree learning.
#04Aug 20, 2026
cs.LG
Dynamic Structural Causal Modeling for Sleep
Ranveer Singh, Saurabh Mathur, Pranuthi Tenali and 2 more
The causal dynamics of sleep-disordered breathing are complex and vary across patient populations, hindering the development of targeted interventions. We learn dynamic causal graphs of sleep-disordered breathing from Home Sleep Apnea Test (HSAT) recordings, revealing systematic differences in causal structure across sex and age subcohorts. We do so using the PCMCI+ algorithm on windowed fractional variables derived from 105 HSAT recordings, exploiting domain knowledge via edge blacklisting and employing bootstrap aggregation to address small subcohort sizes. The learned graphs show that temporal self-dependencies and the apnea-desaturation relationship persist across all cohorts, while other relationships vary substantially.
#05Aug 20, 2026
cs.AI
Pandora's AI Model Routing Box: Efficient Allocation with Costly Value Estimation
Adam Fisch, Shubhendu Trivedi, Fantine Huot and 5 more
Heterogeneous AI systems composed of multiple models, architectures, harnesses, or inference-time settings can improve quality and efficiency by routing queries to the specialist who can answer most effectively at the lowest cost. Routing requires estimating each specialist's expected return, but this value estimation has a cost. Cheap estimators (e.g., embedding-based predictors) are fast but noisy, while accurate estimators (e.g., fine-tuned models with access to retrieval results or partial reasoning traces) are expensive. We formalize this tradeoff as an instance of Pandora's Box, the classical problem of optimal search with costly inspection. Under a Gaussian signal model, the resulting policies have closed-form value-of-information expressions that determine, for each specialist and input, whether refining the value estimate is worth its cost. We call the centralized policy Pandora's Router. We extend this to a decentralized setting, Pandora's Bidder, where specialists independently decide whether to invest in self-assessment before accepting an offered price to claim a query. Experiments across three domains---a standard multi-LLM benchmark, retrieval-augmented specialists, and LLMs with variable inference-time reasoning---show that Pandora's Router matches the routing quality of exhaustive estimation, while querying the expensive estimator far less often. In the decentralized setting, value-of-information reasoning improves allocative efficiency when competing estimates are accurate; when competing estimates are noisy, however, it can increase the strategic specialist's utility at the expense of others.