#01Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
Joshua Stiller, Annika Schneider, Eyke Hüllermeier
Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical tasks such as flood forecasting, financial risk management, and thermal control in machines. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees, but in time-dependent settings common to physics and engineering, these guarantees can break down, leading to systematic undercoverage. We study this problem in the context of surrogate models for time-dependent physical systems described by partial differential equations. We prove that in a function space setting, distributions at arbitrarily close times can be mutually singular, making exact coverage guarantees impossible. We further show that in discretized settings, the total variation distance between distributions often saturates exponentially fast with the grid resolution, mandating restrictions on the spatial discretization to ensure coverage. Finally, for certain settings, we show how to use principled weighted conformal prediction to obtain finite-sample coverage guarantees over growing time horizons.
#02Nov 5, 2026
cs.AI
Scientist World: Grow a Research World for AI-Scientists
Taiming Lu, Sachin Konan, Zhuang Liu
AI-Scientists arrived, but a world for them to grow in did not. Human scientists take theirs for granted $-$ centuries of open problems and shared ideas, waiting in the scientific literature. To AI-Scientists, that world is readable but not runnable, so we build Scientist World for them: every research paper becomes an executable environment. Our autonomous pipeline extracts each paper's open-ended research question and reproduces its proposed method as the baseline; an AI-Scientist entering the environment is evaluated against what the human authors achieved. We release the first 1,000 verified environments. With the world as an evaluation, we found that frontier AI-Scientists can already surpass the human researchers 74% of the time. As a record of how AI does science, it contains 6,400 hours of research traces, with every idea, experiment, failure, and success. As a training ground, we are able to raise (+158%) a small model to match frontier models in research ideation. At last, AI-Scientists' own world has arrived, grown from and growing with science itself.
#03Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Hybrid Machine Learning for Imbalanced Landing-Phase Safety Event Prediction from Flight Data
Taha Asghar, Bilal Mufti, Syed Qasim Zaheer and 1 more
Landing-phase safety-event prediction requires the detection of rare abnormal approaches within strongly imbalanced multivariate flight data. Capturing coupled temporal behavior while distinguishing event-specific signatures across airport operating contexts remains a central modeling challenge. This study proposes an interpretable hybrid feature-fusion framework for multiclass landing-phase safety-event prediction. A long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder trained on nominal flight windows characterizes deviations from routine approach behavior. Its continuous reconstruction-error descriptor is fused with parameter-specific statistical flight-history features and supplied to a class-weighted XGBoost classifier to distinguish Normal, Speed High, Path High, and Flaps Late windows. The framework is evaluated using 53,750 NASA DASHlink approach windows from three arrival airports. Pooled and airport-specific learning strategies are compared alongside component-level benchmarks, repeated pipeline retraining, and feature-attribution analysis. The results demonstrate strong class-balanced detection, with mean macro recall above 0.90 across all airports under repeated partitioning and retraining. Component comparisons establish the importance of class weighting and show that continuous feature fusion outperforms reconstruction-error-only and hard-gate alternatives. Airport-level comparisons reveal benefits from local specialization at the two airports with larger datasets and from pooled training at the airport with the smallest dataset. Feature attributions associate predictions with operationally relevant vertical-path, configuration, speed, and approach-context variables. The framework provides an interpretable approach to rare-event detection and practical guidance for adapting flight-data monitoring models to airport-level data availability.
#04Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Adversarial Training with Large Step Sizes: Implicit Bias, Optimization, and Sharpness
Yi Feng, Andrea Paudice
Adversarial Training (AT) is an important method for improving model robustness. We study the dynamics of deterministic Gradient Descent (GD) in AT. Most existing works in this direction focus on the small or vanishing step sizes regime, where GD resembles a continuous-time flow. However, such step sizes can make training inefficient and are rarely used in practice. In this paper, we study the AT dynamics of GD with large constant step sizes. We first study GD in adversarial linear logistic regression, focusing on two aspects: where the model parameters converge (implicit bias) and how quickly the losses decrease (optimization). We then turn to neural networks training and study how the sharpness of losses evolve during AT. Our results advance the understanding of the behaviors of GD with large step sizes in AT and highlight three key differences from its behavior in Standard Training (ST): (i) the implicit bias gap between AT and ST, previously established only for small step sizes, persists for arbitrarily large constant step sizes, (ii) different from ST, there is no uniform rate of convergence for the optimization error in AT, and (iii) sharpness can exhibit two-stage dynamics that differ from the Edge-of-Stability behavior observed in ST.
#05Nov 5, 2026
cs.LG
Towards interpreting any residual stream direction by scaling activation inversion
Celeste De Schamphelaere, Juan J. Vazquez, Ari Spiesberger and 4 more
To interpret a direction in a language model's residual stream, we can look for text that strongly activates it. But when such text is found by scanning a corpus, it is limited to what that corpus contains. We develop Maximally-Activating Example Metamodels (MAEMs), language models which map residual stream directions from a subject model to text exemplars that strongly activate those directions. Our objective is to maximise the cosine similarity of a supplied residual stream direction with the activations of the text generated by the MAEM. This label-free RL objective helps to scale MAEMs on diverse sources of residual stream directions. Empirically, we find the resultant metamodel produces informative exemplars: a Qwen3.6-27B MAEM inverts held-out activations better than corpus search or a natural-language autoencoder (NLA), beats corpus search (at 10M tokens) on a majority of held-out languages/domains, and activates 89% of held-out SAE features. It also identifies concepts behind steering vectors about as well as NLAs, recovers the payloads of LoRA backdoors more often than corpus search, and can even verbalise some model workspace inner monologue. Unlike explanations produced by other metamodels (e.g. NLAs), MAEM exemplars can be verified with a forward pass on the subject model, making the MAEM objective a grounded alternative for scaling the training of metamodels.