#01Aug 20, 2026
eess.AS
$TCP_α$: Margin-Controlled Confidence estimation for reliable Music Information Retrieval
Parampreet Singh, Anushka Singh, Sumit Kumar and 1 more
Deep neural networks are often overconfident, assigning high confidence even to incorrect predictions. Consequently, users lack a reliable signal for deciding when a prediction can be trusted. Post-hoc confidence estimation addresses this by training a lightweight auxiliary head over a frozen classifier. Existing targets, however, suffer from inherent ambiguity: they assign overlapping confidence values to correct and incorrect predictions, while errors near the decision boundary receive confidence scores indistinguishable from correct predictions. In this work, we propose $TCP_α$, a novel confidence target that resolves these limitations by introducing a margin-controlled penalty for misclassified samples. We prove that $TCP_α$ guarantees complete separation between the target values of correct and incorrect predictions, with a separation margin that is independent of the number of classes and increases monotonically with the penalty parameter. Since accurate classifiers naturally produce very few errors, learning these targets results in a severely imbalanced regression problem. We therefore present a systematic study of training strategies for learning under this imbalance and identify an effective training configuration through extensive ablation studies. We evaluate the proposed approach on rāga identification, investigate its robustness under domain shift, and further validate it on frame-wise ornamentation detection without modifying the selected configuration. Across all settings, $TCP_α$ consistently outperforms existing confidence targets for failure prediction. Rejecting only the least-confident 8\% of predictions improves the base model's macro-F1 from 0.89 to 0.98, while fine-tuning the confidence head with only 5\% labeled samples from a new corpus effectively restores performance under domain shift.
#02Aug 20, 2026
stat.ML
Transfer Learning in Nonparametric Regression with Deep ReLU Networks
Junpeng Ren, Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, Yanzhen Chen and 1 more
This paper develops a general transfer learning framework for nonparametric regression with data consisting of multiple groups. Under the assumption that groups share a common structure along with group-specific deviations in additive form, the proposed method employs a two-stage offset learning procedure: the first stage pools data from all groups to estimate an overall mean function, and the second stage estimates offsets for each group, yielding final group-level estimators through additive combination. Upper bounds on the $\mathcal L_2$ error are established for the proposed framework, covering a broad class of nonparametric estimators under mild complexity and noise conditions. When instantiated with deep ReLU networks, explicit convergence rates are derived under hierarchical composition models, demonstrating the ability to overcome the curse of dimensionality. Conditions that enable positive transfer with faster rates are considered, including learning with simpler functions and data augmentation through pooling samples across groups. Various simulations and real-data experiments further validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
#03Aug 20, 2026
math.PR
Information on trajectories: martingales and random times
Akshay Balsubramani
Accounting for information flow on the path space of trajectories of a nonnegative martingale yields exact variational identities for it, even at arbitrary random times. This recovers the widely used classical concentration inequalities, from Ville to PAC-Bayes, and measures what each one discards. The tail a bound controls is itself a relative entropy, resolved by the chain rule into per-step conditional divergences. The discarded slack has an exact form in each of three geometries: a Gibbs tilt for the Azuma-Hoeffding and PAC-Bayes bounds, the crossing itself for Ville's and for pooled tests, and a dominating certificate for the $L^p$ maximal bound. That certificate's optional-stopping deficit resolves per step into Bregman divergences of the running maximum. On a path-time space, the same identity gains one factor that prices anticipation: an arbitrary random time carries an e-process ``peeking penalty.'' The partition function can be read as a coalescent--a prefix-sharing probability of independent copies--and geometric mixtures of test martingales gain a pooling benefit for multi-model safe testing.
#04Aug 20, 2026
cs.AI
QUASAR: A Quantum-Classical Neural Network for SAR Satellite Physical-Layer Authentication
Vincenzo Sammartino, Nathanael Denis, Roberto Di Pietro
X-band SAR satellites (8-12 GHz) play a critical role in disaster response, environmental monitoring, and military intelligence. Yet, they lack robust physical-layer authentication (PLA), a security layer orthogonal to cryptographic solutions. Existing PLA systems, typically based on radio-frequency fingerprinting, are often limited to sub-6 GHz frequencies and rely on classical deep learning. However, this approach underfits the IQ phase nonlinearities that distinguish satellite hardware. In this paper, we present QUASAR, to the best of our knowledge the first quantum-classical hybrid architecture that fuses a CNN spectrogram encoder with a variational quantum circuit (VQC) to provide PLA to X-band SAR signals. Our solution enjoys two distinctive features: (i) it is markedly more data-efficient than classical machine learning, requiring only 10% of the training data to match the accuracy of classical baselines -- data collection being notoriously the most time-consuming phase of PLA; and, (ii) at an equal data budget, it improves classification accuracy over those baselines. In detail, we test our solution under three adversarial scenarios: replay, crafted-IQ injection, and space-borne spoofing. QUASAR rejects spoofed transmissions in 89.7%, 94.1%, and 81.3% of attempts, respectively, establishing the first quantum-enhanced physical-layer classifier for satellite constellations. The fully detailed framework and the supporting results, other than being interesting on their own, show a novel research avenue for physical-layer authentication.
#05Aug 20, 2026
cs.CV
CalcSeg: Confidence-aware 3D Latent Context Curriculum Learning For Myocardial Scar Segmentation From Single-Stack LGE-CMRs
Nivetha Jayakumar, Hannah Kim, Amit R. Patel and 1 more
Myocardial scar segmentation from single-stack late gadolinium-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance (LGE-CMR) imaging has been a longstanding and clinically important challenge, particularly in the presence of low tissue contrast, diffuse, and small scar regions. These challenges are further intensified by the limited availability of 3D spatial context. This paper presents CalcSeg, a Confidence-aware latent context curriculum learning framework that leverages fused 3D feature representations from single-stack 2D LGE-CMR images for robust scar segmentation. Specifically, we introduce a dynamic semi-supervised curriculum learning strategy that progressively expands training from easier to more challenging scar cases using a learned confidence-aware scoring function. Such a function integrates errors in the predicted scar maps with quantified epistemic uncertainty and scar burden estimation to automatically assess sample difficulty without requiring manual labels. To compensate for the limited spatial context in single-stack acquisitions, we then develop a latent slice-wise self-attention to capture inter-slice dependencies and infer 3D spatial representations from sparse 2D inputs. We evaluate CalcSeg on multi-center clinical LGE-CMR datasets and benchmark against existing scar segmentation networks. Experimental results show that CalcSeg consistently outperforms all competing methods, particularly with substantial improvements on clinically challenging cases. Our code is released on Github.