#01Aug 19, 2026
cs.LG
Learned, Then Lost: A Measured Single-Example Counterfactual in Pre-training
Zachary Speck, Asa Shepard
A single training example's contribution to a finished model is normally estimated rather than measured, because measuring it takes two expensive full pre-training runs that differ in one row of one batch. We ran that counterfactual 24 times at a small scale. We trained 32 GPT-2 models at 124M parameters from scratch on OpenWebText, over four conditions and eight seeds. At step 200 of 9,536, at peak learning rate, we replaced one row of a 256-row batch with a fixed context injection carrying a 194-token passage. The three injected conditions are: 1. fluent prose with a corpus-attested subject, 2. fluent prose with a fabricated subject matched to it within 0.14% on full-batch gradient delta, and 3. random keyboard characters. The fourth condition is an uninjected twin. The passage is learned from one exposure and then decays. Fifty steps after injection, the arm that saw a passage predicts it better than the arm that did not by 0.039 and 0.044 nats of cross-entropy on the passage, at eight of eight seeds with p < $10^{-4}$. At the final step we do not detect that difference for either passage, at p = 0.25 and p = 0.71, against minimum detectable effects of 0.025 and 0.079 nats, nor between the two passages, at p=0.54. Every geometric measure we report is taken after that decay. Our pre-registered contrast on interpolation loss barrier is +0.0068 with p = 0.509, against a minimum detectable effect of 0.032 barrier units. Held-out cross-entropy is $-0.00044$ with p = 0.310. Per-layer centered kernel alignment does not detectably separate any condition at any layer. Weight displacement reaches 44.1% of the seed-to-seed Euclidean distance and is 92% settled by the midpoint of training, while the barrier reaches 3.0% of the seed-to-seed barrier. Those two figures sit roughly 15 times apart, and that is a lower bound. The injection relocates the model within its basin without moving it out.
#02Aug 19, 2026
cs.AI
Grouping the Stochastic Machine: Precision, Not Capability, as the Frontier Metric for AI Systems
George Andrikopoulos
Frontier language models are compared, marketed, and benchmarked on capability -- what their best or average output can achieve. I argue this measures the wrong axis. The models have saturated accuracy: their mean output lands on the target. What now separates one system from another in practice is precision: how tightly concentrated their outputs are around that target across repeated, identical requests. Borrowing the marksman's distinction, capability is where the average shot lands; reliability is the size of the group. I make three claims. First, precision, not capability, is the frontier differentiator between systems, and benchmark culture systematically fails to measure it, reporting central tendency rather than spread. Second, precision is measurable, cheaply and without circularity, by running a fixed suite of deterministically scored tasks many times at fixed temperature and computing the per-task consistency of outcomes -- no model-in-the-loop grader required. Third, the measurement is not merely descriptive but decision-guiding: it separates consistent failures (a tight group off-centre, correctable by the operating discipline of Paper 1 -- a sight adjustment) from scattered failures (a wide group, correctable only by changing the model or its sampling -- a rifle problem). I define a grouping metric, specify a harness, and show how tracking a human-AI pair's grouping over time yields the compounding signal that Paper 1's field study requires. A first real run, since replicated, illustrates both the method and its most important limit: one measured gap was closed completely by a single rule (0/5 -> 5/5), while a suite of tasks authored from the rules themselves found no value, because a frontier model already embodies explicit good practice -- establishing that a discipline's worth is found by measurement on real work, not constructed from its own rulebook.
#03Aug 19, 2026
cs.CV
Image-Guided Pavement Defect Recognition in GPR Data with novel 3D Deep Learning Architecture
Yuandong Pan, Linjun Lu, Mudan Wang and 6 more
Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is a widely adopted non-destructive sensing technology for subsurface inspection in civil and transportation engineering. Despite its potential for pavement condition assessment, the large-scale application of GPR in automated inspection has two key challenges: the scarcity of annotated real-world datasets and the lack of deep learning models designed for the unique characteristics of 3-Dimensional (3D) GPR data. This study addresses these limitations by firstly introducing a cost-effective data preparation pipeline that integrates orthomosaic Red Green Blue (RGB) imagery with 3D GPR scans to generate annotated 3D GPR datasets. The proposed method uses the aligned segments of RGB and GPR data, using pavement surface images as a reference to transfer labels of surface-visible defects to corresponding GPR segments, enabling efficient large-scale annotation in a real-world dataset collected on a highway section under operation. In addition to the dataset contribution, we propose a specialised 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture incorporating residual connections, mixed convolutional kernel sizes, and both depthwise and channelwise attention mechanisms to enhance feature representation and defect classification. The model is evaluated on binary classification tasks for detecting patch and crack defects in pavement structures. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed network outperforms baseline architectures across multiple evaluation metrics. Ablation studies further confirm the effectiveness of the designed architectural components. This work contributes a scalable and practical method for real-world dataset generation, along with a novel deep learning framework.
#04Aug 19, 2026
cs.LG
SCORE: Subject Coordinate Recovery for Label-Free Cross-Subject EEG-to-Image Retrieval
Zhenyao Cui, Siyuan Kan, Siyang Li and 2 more
Accurate visual decoding can reveal how the brain represents visual information and recover perceived content from neural signals such as electroencephalography (EEG), with potential for neural communication. However, current EEG-to-image retrieval methods perform far below their within-subject counterparts for new users without labeled calibration, limiting real-world deployment. To understand this gap, we analyze EEG features across subjects and find that different subjects preserve similar relationships among concepts but express them along different coordinate directions. We therefore propose Subject Coordinate Recovery (SCORE), a target label-free framework combining recovery-aware source training with coordinate alignment at deployment. During training, SCORE aligns source subject EEG with a common image space and simulates unseen-subject recovery through source-only episodes. At deployment, with both encoders frozen, SCORE selects reliable EEG-image landmarks through hubness-corrected matching and estimates an orthogonal transformation to recover target EEG coordinates without source data or target labels. In 200-way retrieval on two public benchmarks, SCORE outperforms the unadapted baseline for every target subject and achieves the best overall accuracy. It reaches 53.23%/83.55% and 12.01%/32.16% Top-1/Top-5 on THINGS-EEG2 and Alljoined-1.6M, respectively, surpassing the strongest baselines by 17.45/15.70 and 3.08/4.62 percentage points. Without target labels or encoder updates, SCORE brings brain-based visual decoding closer to robust, practical, low-latency deployment across users.
#05Aug 19, 2026
stat.ML
Learning Random Geometric Graphs Drawn in Probabilistic Metric Spaces
Dalia Chakrabarty, Kangrui Wang, Chuqiao Zhang and 1 more
We present a new data-driven learning of a Random Geometric Graph (RGG) of a multivariate dataset, where the graph is drawn in a probabilistic metric space. This graph learning works for generic datasets, irrespective of the type of the observables; their probability distributions; or size of the data. We identify a metric of the space that the graph is drawn in, as a probability distribution of a random variable that we introduce, namely, a variable that represents the disparity between the connectedness of two vertices of the graph, and the correlation between the two random variables that are attached to the respective vertex. It is the closed-form {\it{cdf}} of this disparity variable that we advance as the distance function of the host space of the learnt RGG, such that the edge exists between any two nodes, if this inter-nodal distance falls short of a chosen cutoff probability. Drawing the RGG in this probabilistic space leads to the graph being an Soft RGG, such that any edge - if it exists - exists with an identified probability. We forward a simple Rejection Sampling-based technique for learning the probability of any edge. The expected degree distribution of a vertex of this RGG is identified as local, and dependent on the inter-observable correlation matrix. If said correlation matrix is not known, it can be learnt given the data, using its closed-form posterior probability density function, that we forward. We illustrate our graph learning method by learning multiple RGGs of highly multivariate real datasets.