#01Nov 3, 2026
cs.CV
PLANTEUR: A Crop-Type Segmentation Benchmark for Tropical Regions
Piper Wolters, Gabriel Tseng, Favyen Bastani and 4 more
We introduce PLANTEUR, a benchmark for crop-type mapping from satellite images in the French overseas territories. Building on the PASTIS design, PLANTEUR provides georeferenced and aligned Sentinel-2, Sentinel-1, and Landsat-8 sequences with parcel-derived labels spanning six tropical regions and an 8-class label space. We define both a standard test split and a leave-one-island-out protocol to measure cross-territory generalization, and evaluate fully supervised models, linear probes, and fine-tuned foundation models. The benchmark code and data are open source and available on GitHub and Hugging Face.
#02Nov 3, 2026
stat.ME
Post-stratified importance sampling
Yuling Yao, Sergei Tikhonov
Importance sampling is a building block of modern statistical computing, but the weighted estimate is prone to high or infinite variance. Moreover, its empirical standard error is often unreliable, leaving importance sampling without practical uncertainty quantification. Motivated by multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) in survey sampling, we propose post-stratified importance sampling (PIS) for estimating target expectations from proposal draws. PIS reformulates arbitrarily high-dimensional weighting into two one-dimensional probabilistic modeling problems: regression for the conditional mean given the importance ratio and marginal density estimation for the importance ratio. Different modeling choices yield a family of PIS estimators, encompassing ordinary importance sampling as a special case. We develop a model-based implementation that combines one-dimensional Gaussian process regression for the conditional mean and score-informed heavy-tailed density estimation for the marginal law, using both the observed weights and the available density evaluations. We study the oracle gains of PIS and establish consistency under general and model-specific conditions. Simulations and applications to cross-validation demonstrate improvements in estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
#03Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
Universal Hardness From Masking Channels
Parikshit Gopalan, Manoj Prabhakaran, Pranay Tankala
We prove a broad learning-theoretic generalization of the celebrated hardcore lemma concerning the average-case complexity of computing a Boolean function (Impagliazzo, 1995). Our starting point is the observation that the classic notion of a hardcore measure, which reweights a function's input distribution, is equivalent to an input-dependent masking channel that injects randomness into the function's output distribution until it appears fully pseudorandom. The analogue of density of the measure is the fidelity of the channel. From this viewpoint, we develop a general framework for certifying hardness that allows for non-Boolean functions $f$ and a wide range of notions of hardness besides the classic 0-1 loss, by choosing the right notion of fidelity via convex duality. We show the difficulty of learning $f$ using a class $\mathcal{C}$ to minimize a convex loss is tightly characterized by the maximum fidelity possible for a masking channel, which measures the least amount of noise the channel must add to hide the structure of $f$ and make it $\mathcal{C}$-indistinguishable from random noise. Using our framework, we derive a number of multiclass generalizations of the hardcore lemma, and reveal some unexpected subtleties in going to larger alphabets. We construct a universal masking channel that applies to many natural notions of hardness simultaneously. Such channels are dual to omnipredictors, which optimize multiple losses at once (Gopalan, Kalai, Reingold, Sharan, and Wieder, 2022). We observe a symmetry between masking channels and generalizations of the hardcore lemma using pseudoentropy. We present a tight characterization of pseudoentropy using the MaxEnt algorithm from machine learning. A long line of research has shown that learning and hardness are two sides of the same coin; our framework gives a crisp and general formulation of this principle via convex duality.
#04Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
CATF: A Manager-Worker Framework for Context-Aware Time-Series Forecasting
Yueqiao Chen, Dongyu Liu
We study context-aware time-series forecasting, in which a single target variable is predicted from its own history and a set of contextual variables, such as weather and calendar information. As the context becomes more diverse, a single model struggles to capture all of its regimes, while ensemble learning and Mixture-of-Experts approaches rely on manual data partitioning or soft routing, which increases the inference cost and hinders interpretability. We propose CATF, a Context-Aware Time-Series Forecasting framework built on a Manager-Worker architecture: a Transformer-based Manager routes each input to a single Worker based on the context, using hard routing during both training and inference. The Workers thus specialize without manual data partitioning, and any single-model forecaster can serve as a Worker. On five context-rich datasets, four horizons, and two normalization schemes, CATF improves over its standalone counterpart in 162 of 200 comparisons, the best CATF-enhanced model outperforms the best standalone baseline in 19 of 20 settings, and it outperforms the zero-shot Time-MoE foundation model in 15 of 20 settings. A case study on bike-sharing data shows that the Manager routes inputs by the calendar and that each Worker specializes in a different weekly pattern.
#05Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
Agnostic Learning by Imitating
Sílvia Casacuberta, Parikshit Gopalan, Varun Kanade and 3 more
Given a class of machine learning models and sample access to a data distribution with binary labels, which computational task is harder: training a discriminative model that distinguishes positive and negative labels as well as the best member of the class, or training a generative model whose outputs are indistinguishable from real data by all members of the class? We prove that these two fundamental tasks in computational learning theory are not just closely related, but actually equivalent to each other in complexity. One direction of this equivalence was previously known. Indeed, the powerful regularity lemma in complexity theory gives an efficient oracle reduction from the indistinguishability task (a.k.a. multiaccuracy) to the distinguishing task (a.k.a. agnostic learning) in the style of boosting algorithms. Our main contribution is an efficient oracle reduction in the other direction. Taking this idea further, we show that a multiaccuracy oracle is a remarkably powerful primitive, achieving not just agnostic learning but also a wide range of seemingly more demanding learning objectives via similarly efficient and direct constructions. Our results crucially use the power of making adaptive queries to the oracle, and stand in stark contrast to prior work, which showed that post-processing a single multiaccurate predictor is insufficient for even weak forms of learning. On a technical level, we draw a connection between our (offline) problem and a version of no-regret learning in the online setting, which allows us to use follow-the-leader type algorithms to modify the label distribution and aggregate the predictions of the multiaccuracy oracle.