#01Nov 3, 2026
math.OC
A simple adaptive accelerated optimistic dual averaging method for unconstrained convex optimization in $p$-norm geometry
Bowen Li, Danqing Zhou, Chuan He
Efficient preconditioning plays an important role in large-scale first-order optimization. In this paper, we propose an adaptive accelerated optimistic dual averaging ($\text{A}^2$ODA) method for unconstrained convex optimization that adopts low-cost preconditioning based on $p$-norm geometry for $p\in[2,\infty]$. The method is line-search-free and employs a new stepsize selection technique based on an aggregated affine lower model. Its update structure is simple and unified across $p\in[2,\infty]$, with the case $p>2$ requiring no more elaborate updates than the Euclidean case $p=2$. Under a generalized local smoothness condition, we derive a convergence bound that separates the effects of constant and gap-dependent curvature, with the latter potentially yielding faster-decaying terms. In the special case of local smoothness, this bound recovers a nearly optimal convergence rate.
#02Nov 3, 2026
math.ST
Conformal Prediction at Performative Equilibrium: The Price of Performativity
Ahmed Mahrous, Roberto Di Pietro
Conformal prediction gives finite-sample coverage when calibration and test points are exchangeable, but exchangeability can fail when deployment changes the data distribution. We study conformal prediction in performative settings, where the deployed predictor affects the data distribution, and seek prediction sets valid at performative equilibrium: coverage must hold under $D(f^\star)$ for a performatively stable predictor $f^\star$. Under total-variation $L$-sensitivity of the distribution map, we prove a phase transition at $L=1$. If $L \ge 1$, no finite-sample procedure can uniformly guarantee both equilibrium-valid coverage and nontrivial prediction sets. If $L<1$, the minimax excess miscoverage over informative procedures is $\widetildeΩ(1/((1-L)\sqrt{n}))$, implying a sample-complexity inflation of order $1/(1-L)^2$ for fixed excess miscoverage. Our main technical tool is a transfer theorem: any procedure returning a predictor within $\varepsilon$ of equilibrium yields equilibrium-valid coverage up to an additive $L\varepsilon$ term after split-conformal calibration. We instantiate the theorem with two retraining algorithms: a model-free method for discretizable classes and a parametric tail-averaged method that matches the $n$- and $L$-dependence of this rate up to logarithmic factors. Experiments, including semi-synthetic credit scoring, demonstrate the predicted threshold behavior and scaling laws.
#03Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
Shrinkage prior for implicit generative models
Shreya Sinha-Roy, Christian P. Robert, Ritabrata Dutta
Implicit generative models based on deep neural networks have revolutionized many scientific fields, from weather research to language generation. They successfully model complex random objects arising in real-world problems. In this work, we propose a sample-efficient training mechanism for these models. Our approach leverages regularized inference with shrinkage priors and generalized Bayes. In the large $p$ (parameter dimension) and small $n$ (sample size) setting, sparsity-inducing priors have been successfully used for linear regression when $p \gg n$. However, their application to implicit generative models remains challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood function. To address this, we adapt a scoring rule posterior based on a strictly proper scoring rule, following the generalized Bayes framework. We then propose a block SGMCMC within Gibbs sampling mechanism. This enables efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces by identifying a sparse representation of neural implicit generative models. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method through experiments on $p \gg n$ linear regression and an application of neural generative models.
#04Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
CATF: A Manager-Worker Framework for Context-Aware Time-Series Forecasting
Yueqiao Chen, Dongyu Liu
We study context-aware time-series forecasting, in which a single target variable is predicted from its own history and a set of contextual variables, such as weather and calendar information. As the context becomes more diverse, a single model struggles to capture all of its regimes, while ensemble learning and Mixture-of-Experts approaches rely on manual data partitioning or soft routing, which increases the inference cost and hinders interpretability. We propose CATF, a Context-Aware Time-Series Forecasting framework built on a Manager-Worker architecture: a Transformer-based Manager routes each input to a single Worker based on the context, using hard routing during both training and inference. The Workers thus specialize without manual data partitioning, and any single-model forecaster can serve as a Worker. On five context-rich datasets, four horizons, and two normalization schemes, CATF improves over its standalone counterpart in 162 of 200 comparisons, the best CATF-enhanced model outperforms the best standalone baseline in 19 of 20 settings, and it outperforms the zero-shot Time-MoE foundation model in 15 of 20 settings. A case study on bike-sharing data shows that the Manager routes inputs by the calendar and that each Worker specializes in a different weekly pattern.
#05Nov 3, 2026
cs.CL
A Circuit for In-Context Learning
Andrew Gao, William Gao
In-context learning (ICL) lets a pretrained language model perform a task specified by demonstrations in its prompt, with no parameter updates. With arbitrary labels the model must acquire a mapping it cannot have memorized, so the learning happens within a single forward pass. Prior work found candidate parts but not how they compose. We give the composition for few-shot sentence classification with arbitrary labels in three 3-4B-parameter transformers. The model implements a key-value memory over label-token positions: each label token's residual stream encodes the label's identity, and middle-layer attention heads write into it the class of the preceding demonstration as its key. At the query, upper-layer heads match the query's class against the stored keys and copy out the matching labels. An early-layer signal encoding whether any label has repeated gates this readout; in its absence the readers attend to the start of the prompt and no label is favored. A separate set of heads suppresses the most recently seen label. Each step is established causally by activation patching, head ablations against random-head baselines, and steering with the model's own signals. A softmax model of the readout with two constants per head, fit on one prompt distribution, predicts another. The computation is conserved across the three models, the named heads alone reproduce the behaviour, and a transformer trained from scratch grows the same parts. The circuit transfers to semantic concepts and to labels with meaning, and the same parts, with a causal gate, appear from 0.6B to 8B in one family and survive instruction tuning. ICL in this setting is a gated associative lookup built from a few identifiable component types, traced causally from demonstrations to prediction.