#01Nov 3, 2026
math.ST
Conformal Prediction at Performative Equilibrium: The Price of Performativity
Ahmed Mahrous, Roberto Di Pietro
Conformal prediction gives finite-sample coverage when calibration and test points are exchangeable, but exchangeability can fail when deployment changes the data distribution. We study conformal prediction in performative settings, where the deployed predictor affects the data distribution, and seek prediction sets valid at performative equilibrium: coverage must hold under $D(f^\star)$ for a performatively stable predictor $f^\star$. Under total-variation $L$-sensitivity of the distribution map, we prove a phase transition at $L=1$. If $L \ge 1$, no finite-sample procedure can uniformly guarantee both equilibrium-valid coverage and nontrivial prediction sets. If $L<1$, the minimax excess miscoverage over informative procedures is $\widetildeΩ(1/((1-L)\sqrt{n}))$, implying a sample-complexity inflation of order $1/(1-L)^2$ for fixed excess miscoverage. Our main technical tool is a transfer theorem: any procedure returning a predictor within $\varepsilon$ of equilibrium yields equilibrium-valid coverage up to an additive $L\varepsilon$ term after split-conformal calibration. We instantiate the theorem with two retraining algorithms: a model-free method for discretizable classes and a parametric tail-averaged method that matches the $n$- and $L$-dependence of this rate up to logarithmic factors. Experiments, including semi-synthetic credit scoring, demonstrate the predicted threshold behavior and scaling laws.
#02Nov 3, 2026
cs.DS
Gaussian Partitioning for Reliable Learning of Multi-Index Models
Ilias Diakonikolas, Giannis Iakovidis, Daniel M. Kane and 1 more
We introduce Gaussian partitioning, an algorithmic primitive for distributions smooth with respect to a Gaussian. It partitions space into polyhedral regions so that almost all mass lies in thin strips restricting a few orthogonal directions. Within each strip, the conditional distribution approximately matches low-degree Gaussian moments in the unrestricted directions. Our construction builds on logconcave partitioning of Diakonikolas, Kane, and Ma (FOCS 2026). Under input marginals smooth with respect to the standard Gaussian, we obtain agnostic learners with error $(1+c)\mathrm{opt}+ε$ for broad classes of Boolean multi-index models, including functions of halfspaces, low-dimensional convex concepts, and low-dimensional polynomial threshold functions. For functions of $k$ halfspaces, both agnostic and testable agnostic learners achieve this error with dimension dependence $d^{\mathrm{poly}(k/c)}$, improving the previous exponential dependence on $k/c$ in the agnostic exponent. For learning from positive examples with imperfect unlabeled data (PUI), we give algorithms and Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds that qualitatively characterize complexity through Gaussian moment matching. For fixed smoothness and positive-mass parameters, we learn intersections of $k$ halfspaces with dimension dependence $d^{O(\log(k/ε))}$ and matching SQ lower bounds, improving the previous $d^{\mathrm{poly}(1/ε)}$ upper bound even for one halfspace. A general reduction from agnostic reliable learning to PUI yields negative reliable learners for these intersections with the same dimension dependence, for fixed smoothness. Finally, for PQ learning and testable learning with distribution shift, we prove qualitatively optimal SQ lower bounds of $d^{Ω(1/ε^2)}$, even for intersections of two halfspaces with Gaussian training data and arbitrary test distributions.
#03Nov 3, 2026
cs.CL
Knowingly Wrong: Training LLMs Against Their Own Beliefs can Induce Misalignment
Ariana M. Villegas-Suarez, Guido Freire, Sohan Venkatesh and 1 more
Fine-tuning a large language model (LLM) on harmful data in a narrow domain, such as bad medical advice, can make it broadly misaligned. How realistic this risk is remains unclear, since models are very rarely fine-tuned on explicitly harmful data in practice. In this work, we show that fine-tuning on data the model believes to be false but that has no harmful content, can also induce broad misalignment. Across mathematics, trivia, cooking and sports, the more strongly the model disbelieves the answers it is trained on, the more misaligned it becomes. In mathematics, misaligned answers rise from 4% to over 60% as the training answers become more wrong, with little loss of general capability. After fine-tuning, the model states the wrong answers but its multiple-choice probabilities still prefer the true ones, which suggests that misalignment comes from this internal inconsistency. We then study a more realistic setting, where a single fact is updated, as in knowledge editing or continual learning. The same relationship holds and the more the model still believes the true fact after training on the false one, the more misaligned it becomes. When we frame the same false fact as part of a coherent story, the model comes to believe it more deeply and becomes less misaligned than when we instruct it to assert the false fact. Content filters and persona vectors cannot tell these two framings apart, even though they lead to different levels of misalignment. These results suggest a risk for model updates, where training a model that does not adopt the new fact as true can induce misalignment even when the data looks harmless.
#04Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
Stabilizing On-Policy Targeted Guidance in Agentic Reinforcement Learning
Kevin Frans, Alexander M Rush, Sergey Levine and 2 more
Naive on-policy RL is often bottlenecked by the capabilities of the base model --- insufficient coverage can result in an inability to learn from certain rewards. At the same time, rewards in modern post-training systems often come from rich textual sources, e.g. judge models with a rubric of criteria. Can we utilize such structures to provide a rich directional signal that enables improving on otherwise difficult to optimize rewards? In this work, we examine a framework we refer to as targeted guidance that learns from per-turn textual feedback via an on-policy self-distillation objective. Our focus is not only on directly improving hard-to-optimize behaviors, but on how to do so throughout the training process without degrading baseline RL performance. Over a range of settings across an agentic multi-turn software engineering environment, we find success by combining targeted self-distillation with a per-criteria RL reward, and by limiting feedback to turns where the policy specifically fails. We further examine the design choices that lead to stable entropy and reduce oscillatory behavior throughout training.
#05Nov 3, 2026
cs.LG
Shrinkage prior for implicit generative models
Shreya Sinha-Roy, Christian P. Robert, Ritabrata Dutta
Implicit generative models based on deep neural networks have revolutionized many scientific fields, from weather research to language generation. They successfully model complex random objects arising in real-world problems. In this work, we propose a sample-efficient training mechanism for these models. Our approach leverages regularized inference with shrinkage priors and generalized Bayes. In the large $p$ (parameter dimension) and small $n$ (sample size) setting, sparsity-inducing priors have been successfully used for linear regression when $p \gg n$. However, their application to implicit generative models remains challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood function. To address this, we adapt a scoring rule posterior based on a strictly proper scoring rule, following the generalized Bayes framework. We then propose a block SGMCMC within Gibbs sampling mechanism. This enables efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces by identifying a sparse representation of neural implicit generative models. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method through experiments on $p \gg n$ linear regression and an application of neural generative models.