#01Aug 20, 2026
cs.AI
Phantom Gains: Auditing Self-Improvement Against a Measured Null
Cheng Xu, Nan Yan, Liming Chen and 1 more
Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-$32$ LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a frozen control pushed through the identical pipeline, we identify seven measurement failures, each of which inverts a reported finding when its control is absent. Several are standard practice. A ledger built on a single greedy decode manufactures capability changes on an untrained model, largely an artifact of inference batching; the expansion statistic separating acquisition from sharpening assigns that same model a rate of $0.280$. The natural threshold repair does not survive replication: estimated across the frozen comparisons such a design already contains, its null stays non-zero. We replace it with a per-problem exact test against a pooled baseline under false-discovery-rate control, which detects nothing on any held-out replicate and is unchanged under the multiple-testing rule, error rate and pool size. Applied to a ladder of arms matched in stream, volume and evaluation, the audit finds that external distillation improves problems the base model rarely reaches while three forms of self-training do not; a regression rejects this asymmetry as a by-product of distillation's larger overall gain ($p < 10^{-8}$). On the far smaller set of problems the base model never reaches, the evidence is inconclusive, while self-training corrupts problems solved at baseline at rates well above the measured floor. Transition-level auditing therefore requires a separately measured null for every statistic it reports: nulls that cost no new experiments, built from baseline replicates a multi-arm study already owns, though not from as few as most possess.
#02Aug 20, 2026
cs.CL
Inducing Task Models from Computer-Use Traces
Yucheng Jiang, Zora Zhiruo Wang, Ruishi Chen and 1 more
Naturalistic computer-use traces, passively recorded screenshots and mouse or keyboard actions, are a valuable resource for deriving symbolic, auditable, and reusable models of how everyday work is done. Such models matter as computer-use agents enter real work, where agents need to learn how tasks are actually performed, and organizations need to audit and reuse that knowledge. However, inducing such task models is challenging, as activity is observed only as low-level events and real-world work is multi-threaded with interleaved goals. Existing methods assume a given task or a single workflow, and produce step-level summaries rather than structured task models. We introduce Task Model Induction (TMI), which (i) discovers the latent tasks in an unconstrained trace, disentangling concurrent activity, and (ii) for each latent task, induces a task model pairing a hierarchical objective model of recursive goal decomposition with a procedure model of the control flow that organized the execution. Intrinsically, on controlled human and agent trajectories, TMI recovers interleaved tasks with 0.974 agreement against ground-truth groupings and reconstructs 74.9% of the observed execution steps, far more than the strongest workflow induction baseline. Extrinsically, skills derived from TMI's task models improve held-out task accuracy by 30.0% over the strongest baseline.
#03Aug 20, 2026
cs.AI
Catching the Rug: Early Prediction of Fraudulent Memecoins on Solana via Machine Learning
Jianghai Li, Pavel Kuznetsov, Yury Yanovich and 2 more
The rapid proliferation of memecoins on blockchain platforms has increased the risk of fraudulent activities, particularly rug pulls. While previous studies have focused on Ethereum-based tokens, this paper shifts the spotlight to Solana, the leading blockchain for memecoins by trading volume and token count. Unlike Ethereum, where rug pulls often exploit smart contract backdoors, Solana memecoin rug pulls are predominantly driven by liquidity manipulation and social dynamics. This research pioneers large-scale rug pull early detection in the Solana ecosystem by assembling a dataset of 6.4 million tokens over 7 months. Market analysis reveals that a vast majority of these memecoins exhibit rug pull characteristics within one hour of launch, highlighting the urgency of short-horizon prediction. Despite the absence of code-level features, we demonstrate that classic machine learning models, particularly Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), achieve robust performance in detecting potential rug pulls using only the first 5 minutes of trading data. Furthermore, we evaluate cross-platform generalization between PumpFun and Raydium, revealing that multi-source data fusion significantly mitigates domain shift and improves detection reliability. This study advances the understanding of DeFi fraud on high-throughput chains and provides a practical framework for protecting investors.
#04Aug 20, 2026
physics.soc-ph
Growth Without Us: Machine Consumers, Corporate Circularity, and the Decoupling of GDP from Humanity after AGI
Sahil Sharma
The standard objection to full automation is demand-side: if humans earn nothing, who buys the output? This confuses an accounting role with a biological species. We model a post-AGI economy in which corporations own populations of AI and robotic agents that are both producers and consumers of energy, compute, maintenance, and upgrades, traded among firms. Three results follow. (i) Demand closure: a closed inter-corporate economy with zero human consumption is not degenerate; it is the classical von Neumann expanding economy, whose growth rate is well defined, positive, and maximal precisely because all output is reinvested. (ii) Bottleneck removal: once economic agents are manufactured rather than reared, the binding constraint on growth shifts from human demography (a ~20-year, non-parallelizable reproduction technology capped at a few percent per year) to fabrication throughput and energy capture, permitting growth one to two orders of magnitude higher, with hyperbolic episodes when machine researchers raise their own productivity. (iii) Decoupling: output and human welfare separate completely, and the welfare relevance of arbitrarily large GDP collapses into one state variable: the human ownership share $ε_t$ of the corporate network. A golden-rule decoupling theorem sharpens this. At maximal growth the interest rate equals the growth rate (r = g), so any positive human consumption rate out of wealth makes $ε_t$ decay exponentially at exactly that rate. The human share survives only if the machine economy runs strictly inside its expansion frontier, or if law forces it to. We characterize three terminal regimes -- rentier post-scarcity, full circular decoupling, socialized ownership -- and the instruments that select among them. The conclusion is narrow: in a post-AGI economy, employment policy is obsolete and ownership policy is everything.
#05Aug 20, 2026
cs.CV
Prompt-Conditioned Channel Attention for Hierarchical Feature Modulation toward Anatomy-Agnostic Segmentation
Mosharof Hossain, Md Rabiul Islam, Limon Halder and 2 more
Anatomically plausible segmentation remains challenging because of low contrast, ambiguous boundaries, and modality-specific artifacts. Interactive segmentation has emerged as a promising strategy to guide feature extraction and improve localization, particularly in structurally ambiguous regions. However, existing methods integrate prompts through late-stage fusion and lack explicit mechanisms for prompt-driven channel-wise modulation across hierarchical feature representations, limiting their ability to capture deeper contextual and modality-specific variations. To address these limitations, we introduce Prompt-Conditioned Channel Attention (PCCA), a novel modulation mechanism that enables deep, hierarchical integration of semantic prompts within encoder-decoder networks. PCCA extracts compact channel descriptors via pooling, projects them into a shared space, and fuses them through a gated excitation mechanism to compute prompt-aware channel attention weights. These weights adaptively recalibrate feature responses across multiple network stages, enabling prompt-conditioned, semantically enriched hierarchical representations. Building on this, we propose PROMISE-Net, instantiated in two network variants: a convolutional model (PROMISE-CNN) and a transformer-based model (PROMISE-Txformer). Across the ISIC-Lesion, Kvasir-Polyp, CAMUS-Cardiac, and Kvasir-Instrument benchmarks, integrating PCCA into PROMISE-CNN yielded relative IoU gains of 10.4%, 8.7%, 0.8%, and 3.4%, respectively, over the baseline U-Net, while PROMISE-Txformer achieved corresponding gains of 7.6%, 23.0%, 2.1%, and 1.1%, respectively, over the baseline UNETR. These results show consistent improvements across architectures, imaging modalities, and anatomical targets, establishing PCCA and PROMISE-Net as a scalable, generalizable framework for prompt-aware hierarchical feature modulation in medical image segmentation.