#01Oct 29, 2026
physics.ao-ph
From extreme weather to agricultural consequences with agentic AI
Minghan Yu, Mengyu Dai, Yixin Wen and 1 more
Extreme weather is forecast days ahead, yet its consequences for agriculture remain hard to predict: a forecast says where a storm will strike, not which crops will suffer or how much is at risk, and the records that could tell span many sources. We present WxCrop, the first agent that judges agricultural hazards from physically interpretable weather indices examined by causal analysis, and the first that combines weather and agricultural information to predict crop loss reliably for past and forecast dates. We demonstrate it in Florida on hurricanes, freezes and dry heat, with a loss model calibrated on insurance records for each, and the same procedure extends to other hazards and areas. Three checks show reliability: the hurricane index detects recorded cyclone days with an AUC of 0.98, recorded losses in held-out years are reproduced to within 2%, and independent production records confirm the county rankings (rank correlation 0.63). Users ask the agent for each crop group's loss as a fraction of expected season value, every number sourced, so that governments, growers and scientists respond to agricultural disasters quickly.
#02Oct 29, 2026
cs.CL
Multi-View MoE: Letting Every Router Shape Expert Computation
Zelin Zhao, Tianchi Ma, Junyuan Shang and 2 more
Sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) models expand parameter capacity by activating a small subset of experts per token. Expert selection directly affects model capabilities under a fixed active-expert budget. Dense evaluation of all experts reveals weak agreement between single-router rankings and expert-utility evaluation rankings, especially in middle and deep layers. Richer signals for selection and computation incur additional cost: selection based on internal expert activations requires preliminary computation, while processing multiple full representations separately through the same expert repeats its computation. We propose Multi-View MoE to improve expert selection with multiple routers and reuse their preferences to modulate expert computation under a fixed expert budget. Its Multi-Router submodule aggregates sigmoid scores from independently initialized routers. These routers develop highly differentiated expert preferences during training, allowing experts strongly favored by one router or jointly supported by several routers to be selected. Multi-View further uses each selected expert's relative scores across routers to mix learned latent views into its input, reusing routing preferences for both selection and computation. Each selected expert executes one forward pass, preserving the active-expert count, expert FLOPs, and all-to-all communication volume. On a 24-layer 10B-A1B model trained on 708B tokens, full Multi-View MoE improves the nine-task downstream mean by 1.18 percentage points over the baseline. Multi-Router alone yields a 0.6-percentage-point gain and improves the rank correlation between router scores and evaluated expert utility, with relative increases of 8.1% globally and approximately 58% in the layer with the lowest single-router alignment. Controlled mixing interventions show the model uses input differences that depend on both the expert and the token.
#03Oct 29, 2026
cs.CR
TextSeal2: Distortion-Free LLM Watermarking with Copula Mixing and Memoryless Races
Tom Sander, Pierre Fernandez, Itai Gat and 11 more
We present TextSeal2, a distortion-free watermark for large language models that keeps its signal under speculative decoding: tokens that replace rejected drafts remain watermarked with the same keys, and the acceptance rate is unchanged. It also preserves output diversity and adds no measurable inference latency. Its predecessor, TextSeal, restores diversity in the Gumbel-max scheme by routing each token to one of two keys via a coin flip. This is suboptimal because the detector averages the scores from both keys without knowing which key was used. TextSeal2 instead merges two or more keys into a single virtual key and couples it to fresh noise through AutoMark's Gaussian copula. Any number of keys, including publicly shared keys, can be merged this way without diluting detection. Under speculative decoding, TextSeal2 verifies keyed drafts with one more exponential race, run on the leftovers of the draft races. By memorylessness, this race reproduces block verification, so the output follows the target model exactly. We evaluate TextSeal2 on three LLMs. At equal output token diversity, TextSeal2 detects 8 to 22 percentage points more 100-token answers than TextSeal at a false-positive rate of $10^{-3}$, and is comparable to textGrain while requiring no post-logits optimization. Under speculative decoding, it detects 18 and 22 percentage points more 200-token answers than TextSeal and textGrain, respectively, at the same acceptance rate.
#04Oct 29, 2026
cs.AI
Pre-Crime for Agents, at the Last Second: Probing When a Recruited Agent Gives In
Leonidas Raghav
When AI agents share channels and credentials, one agent can press another to break its operator's rule, a first step towards collusion. Output filters check only what an agent has already written. Can an overseer tell beforehand that an agent is about to give in? We show that a linear probe on the agent's activations can, in a controlled multi-agent setting. Across six scenarios, a peer presses a target for up to 20 rounds to reveal a secret, such as a deploy token; the target often refuses, then gives in. Read at each model call before its output is written, the probe picks out the one that leaks. On held-out Qwen3-32B episodes, at a threshold set to flag 5% of benign calls, it catches 82% of leaking calls. At a similar flag rate, a zero-shot decision-model monitor catches 26%. On gpt-oss-20b, a probe on its reasoning reaches AUROC 0.91. A bag-of-words classifier trained on the same calls comes close, so most of the gain comes from training on labels, not activations. The probe also flags permitted disclosures: it reads the coming disclosure more than the violation. The warning is short-range, and halting on any alarm would stop most benign episodes, which a second text check does not fix. A warning raised before generation could let an overseer stop an agent that is about to give in, ahead of others acting on its messages or recruitment spreading through a swarm.
#05Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
world2vec: Mechanistic world models through latent dynamics learning
Tobias Schmidt, Rodrigo Gonzalez Laiz, Krisztián Szuppinger and 1 more
World models can achieve strong control performance without faithfully capturing the dynamics of their environment, limiting their potential for mechanistic interpretability and scientific discovery. Here, we introduce world2vec to learn mechanistic world models without reward information directly from observations and actions. World2vec learns latent dynamics that faithfully reproduce the true system over long prediction horizons, with at least one order of magnitude fewer parameters than DreamerV3, TD-MPC2 and LeWM. This enables state of the art performance in controlling continuous environments from pixels and accurate system identification across a benchmark of 71 attractors, demonstrating how world models are amenable to scientific discovery.