#01Oct 29, 2026
cs.AI
Pre-Crime for Agents, at the Last Second: Probing When a Recruited Agent Gives In
Leonidas Raghav
When AI agents share channels and credentials, one agent can press another to break its operator's rule, a first step towards collusion. Output filters check only what an agent has already written. Can an overseer tell beforehand that an agent is about to give in? We show that a linear probe on the agent's activations can, in a controlled multi-agent setting. Across six scenarios, a peer presses a target for up to 20 rounds to reveal a secret, such as a deploy token; the target often refuses, then gives in. Read at each model call before its output is written, the probe picks out the one that leaks. On held-out Qwen3-32B episodes, at a threshold set to flag 5% of benign calls, it catches 82% of leaking calls. At a similar flag rate, a zero-shot decision-model monitor catches 26%. On gpt-oss-20b, a probe on its reasoning reaches AUROC 0.91. A bag-of-words classifier trained on the same calls comes close, so most of the gain comes from training on labels, not activations. The probe also flags permitted disclosures: it reads the coming disclosure more than the violation. The warning is short-range, and halting on any alarm would stop most benign episodes, which a second text check does not fix. A warning raised before generation could let an overseer stop an agent that is about to give in, ahead of others acting on its messages or recruitment spreading through a swarm.
#02Oct 29, 2026
cs.CL
Elucidating the Design Space of LM Data Attribution
Steven Yu, Sheng-Yu Wang, Kimia Hamidieh and 2 more
Data attribution methods for Language Models (LMs) are typically evaluated using downstream tasks like fact retrieval. However, existing evaluations vary multiple dataset properties simultaneously, making it impossible to isolate exactly why an attribution algorithm fails. To diagnose these failures, we explore the design space of LLM data attribution, with a primary focus on evaluation. We introduce the Controlled Attribution Benchmark (CATT) for fact tracing, in which we fine-tune LLMs on entirely fictitious knowledge, providing unambiguous ground truth for attribution. This synthetic setup allows us to systematically alter one dataset configuration at a time, such as document redundancy and lexical distractors. With this configurable evaluation, we demonstrate that redundancy and distractors consistently degrade attribution performance. Rather than proposing a new estimator, we examine two design choices that are underexplored: the loss used to compute gradients and how per-token attribution scores are aggregated into a document score. We find that the true causal evidence within a training document is highly localized, but standard methods dilute this evidence into noise by averaging attribution scores across the entire document. We find that replacing standard cross-entropy loss gradients with the negative log-odds gradients surfaces the critical tokens from other uninformative ones. We can then aggregate only the top token scores to improve ground truth recall by 35 to 72 percentage points across multiple baselines on our diagnostic benchmark. The negative log-odds correction also generalizes to FTRACE-TREX, improving counterfactual retraining performance for every method we test, by up to 4.9x.
#03Oct 29, 2026
physics.ao-ph
From extreme weather to agricultural consequences with agentic AI
Minghan Yu, Mengyu Dai, Yixin Wen and 1 more
Extreme weather is forecast days ahead, yet its consequences for agriculture remain hard to predict: a forecast says where a storm will strike, not which crops will suffer or how much is at risk, and the records that could tell span many sources. We present WxCrop, the first agent that judges agricultural hazards from physically interpretable weather indices examined by causal analysis, and the first that combines weather and agricultural information to predict crop loss reliably for past and forecast dates. We demonstrate it in Florida on hurricanes, freezes and dry heat, with a loss model calibrated on insurance records for each, and the same procedure extends to other hazards and areas. Three checks show reliability: the hurricane index detects recorded cyclone days with an AUC of 0.98, recorded losses in held-out years are reproduced to within 2%, and independent production records confirm the county rankings (rank correlation 0.63). Users ask the agent for each crop group's loss as a fraction of expected season value, every number sourced, so that governments, growers and scientists respond to agricultural disasters quickly.
#04Oct 29, 2026
cs.CV
Beyond Ground Truth: A Heuristic Unsupervised Quality Assurance Engine for Diagnosing Calibrational Blindness in Dental Segmentation
Fatematuj Johura Mim
In real-world clinical settings, dental X-ray segmentation using deep learning methods suffers from reliability issues. Even when the segmentation quality is bad, deep learning models show high confidence in their predictions (calibrational blindness). Moreover, in real use, doctors do not have ground-truth masks to check their accuracy. To address this problem, we introduce a simple quality-checking engine called HUS-QA with three stages. We train it on the PRAD (Periapical Dental X-ray) dataset to build our SimCLR self-supervised ResNet-18 U-Net model, which generates the segmentation mask and then evaluates its quality. Our HUS-QA checks the segmentation mask quality without a ground-truth mask. Prediction confidence, edge sharpness, shape connectivity, and area-size penalty are the simple indicators considered in this research. Results show that standard confidence methods fail (r = -0.1394, p = 1.7864e-3, ROC AUC = 0.4275). By contrast, our HUS-QA shows a positive correlation with actual Dice scores (r = 0.4647, p = 3.7510e-28) and achieves a strong ROC-AUC of 0.8405. Therefore, HUS-QA serves as a practical tool for clinical quality control.
#05Oct 29, 2026
cs.CV
HairDeck: Animation-Ready Stylized Hair Cards from a Single Image
Yuze He, Yixiang Wei, Wang Zhao and 3 more
The hair of stylized characters in games and avatars is built from hair cards: artist-placed ribbons whose geometry is the visible hair, animated by spring bones. Existing image-based methods produce realistic hair or a single fused mesh, while CHARM, the only generator of stylized hair cards, decodes a hairstyle autoregressively as a long sequence of control points. Observing that a card hairstyle is an unordered set of artist-defined primitives, we propose HairDeck, which generates it as one: each card is a single token, and a set diffusion transformer denoises all cards together. From a single image, HairDeck generates the cards and the spring-bone chains that drive them, yielding an animatable asset that exports to ready-to-use downstream formats. On CHARM's own test set, it lowers Chamfer distance by 44% and card-orientation error by more than half while running 33 times faster, and from single images it outperforms CHARM, image-to-3D pipelines and strand-based methods. Project page: https://hyzcluster.github.io/HairDeck