#01Aug 11, 2026
cs.CC
How to Verify Consistency of Probabilistic Claims
Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio and 1 more
When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time? This problem is of interest for AI safety, where safety is derived from honesty about probabilistic predictions of unwanted outcomes potentially caused by an AI action. We construct an interactive PCP as follows. Let a predictive model be specified by a probability circuit P and a circuit Q which outputs confidence in predictions. Together, P and Q implicitly specify exponentially many probabilistic claims. We show a protocol in which a polynomial-time verifier can verify the approximate consistency of (P,Q). The verifier is given the pair of circuits (P,Q), which it evaluates at only a few points; alongside them it is given a proof oracle, an encoding of a witnessing probability distribution allegedly consistent with the predictions of (P,Q), which it reads at a few locations while interacting with a single untrusted prover. En route, we must ensure the existence of a sparse witnessing distribution consistent with the model's predictions. To do so, we first consider witness distributions for the consistency of explicit probabilistic claims, rather than claims specified by a predictor: say m claims, each of the form Pr[Y = 1 | X = x] = p, over n Boolean variables. Building on work initiated by Nilsson (Artif. Intell., 1986), we place l_2-approximate probabilistic consistency of explicit claims in NP, with certificates of length O(mn + log B) in the input bit-precision B; we further show how a small additive completeness-soundness gap removes the dependence on B. Together these results provide a complexity-theoretic foundation for certifying the self-consistency of probabilistic predictors. We view our interactive PCP as a first step toward training predictive models to prove their own consistency.
#02Aug 11, 2026
cs.CV
SAR2Agri: Learning SAR Intensity Representations for Agricultural Monitoring
Moti Rattan Gupta, Anupam Sobti
Agricultural monitoring faces unique challenges, arising from the landscape's complex temporal, phenological, and climate dynamics, yet monitoring them is critical for ensuring food security. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites offer all-weather day-night imaging capability supporting key monitoring tasks including crop type mapping, yield prediction and phenological event detection. Existing multimodal remote sensing foundation models including TerraMind and CopernicusFM learn SAR representations by grounding them in optical imagery using joint encoding and contrastive learning techniques, while SAR-specific foundation models such as SAR-JEPA, SARMAE, and SAR-W-MixMAE primarily focus on target detection, flood mapping, and land cover classification applications. Recent work has introduced phenology inspired temporal pretext tasks with optical imagery which has shown strong performance on agricultural downstream tasks. In this work, we propose the first self-supervised learning pipeline focused on using only SAR intensity imagery for agricultural applications. We improve the temporal pretext tasks through masking and curriculum learning to enhance the pretraining pipeline's ability to capture phenological features from SAR. On the SICKLE benchmark, our final model achieves 84.9% IoU on crop type mapping, outperforming optical baselines (by 15.3 pt) and existing SAR baselines (by 2.2 pt), demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed pipeline for pretraining SAR intensity encoders for agricultural monitoring.
#03Aug 11, 2026
cs.CV
VidForensics-M1: Meta-Detection Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Temporal Grounding for AI-Generated Video Forensics
Bowei Liu, Zheng Lu, Yuhan Bian and 8 more
Recent advances in video generation models have significantly improved the realism of synthetic videos, blurring the boundary between generated and authentic content and raising concerns about misinformation. Existing MLLM-based detectors mainly rely on supervised fine-tuning or label-level reinforcement learning, where coarse supervision limits generalization to unseen scenarios and emerging video generators. To overcome these limitations, we are the first to introduce \textbf{meta-detection} into AI-generated video detection, enabling reliable forgery detection by jointly optimizing predicted labels and supporting evidence within reinforcement learning. This paradigm requires reliable evidence signals and effective mechanisms to integrate them into label-level optimization. Textual rationales provide semantic descriptions of forgery artifacts, but their generation and verification depend on external models, making supervision vulnerable to hallucinations and semantic biases. In contrast, temporal grounding provides more objective and verifiable evidence, as manipulated intervals can be precisely controlled during forgery construction. Based on this insight, we propose an automated data construction pipeline that generates paired real-fake videos by replacing temporal segments with boundary-frame-conditioned video generation models. Furthermore, we introduce \textbf{Evidence-Guided Reward Redistribution}, which performs evidence-aware credit assignment by redistributing rewards among label-correct responses according to evidence quality. This preserves reliable label supervision while encouraging detectors to acquire fine-grained and verifiable forgery localization capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \textbf{VidForensics-M1} effectively leverages verifiable temporal evidence to achieve robust and generalizable AI-generated video detection.
#04Aug 11, 2026
cs.CV
MultiModal Code-Switching: Interleaving Visual Objects into Language for Explicit Object-Level Alignment
Changhao Xiang, Shangyu Xing, Zhen Wu and 2 more
Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) predominantly rely on image-text pairs for modality alignment pretraining, mapping global image representations to long textual descriptions. However, this image-level alignment suffers from referential ambiguity: models struggle to infer the correspondences between multiple visual objects and textual entities from the global representation, leading to data inefficiency and suboptimal semantic grounding. To address this, we propose MultiModal Code-Switching (MMCS), a novel pretraining paradigm that provides explicit object-level supervision. Inspired by the linguistic phenomenon of code-switching, MMCS interleaves vision and language by replacing textual entities with their corresponding visual objects, enforcing local vision-language grounding. We further develop a scalable data synthesis pipeline to generate a pretraining dataset of 773K samples with accurate object-entity correspondences. Experiments show that MMCS is highly data-efficient: with only 50K samples, it matches or surpasses models trained on 600K image-text pairs. Furthermore, MMCS consistently improves visual grounding and perception capabilities across varying model scales.
#05Aug 11, 2026
math.ST
Posterior contraction rates in Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families
Emanuele Dolera, Stefano Favaro, Matteo Giordano
We study posterior contraction in positive-order Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families. We embed the natural parameter in a Hilbert scale and model it via a standard Gaussian series prior expanded in the eigenbasis generating the scale. Under a two-sided link condition on the Fisher information and suitable local regularity assumptions, we show that smoothness-matching priors achieve minimax-optimal posterior contraction rates in any Hilbert scale norm up to the regularity of the ground truth. Our analysis builds on the novel approach to posterior contraction based on the Wasserstein distance recently introduced by Dolera et al. (2024). It combines refined Laplace-type estimates for infinite-dimensional integrals associated to the posterior kernels with a mixed-geometry estimate controlling their stability under fluctuations in the data, itself resting on a tailored Poincaré inequality for posterior distributions conditioned on neighbourhoods of the truth. We apply the general theory to density estimation with a logistic parametrisation, Poisson intensity estimation with an exponential link, and the Gaussian white-noise model, yielding minimax contraction rates in Sobolev norms across all three settings. In particular, these yield optimal recovery of density score functions and derivatives of Poisson intensities.