#01Oct 16, 2026
cs.LG
Waiting Buys Exactly Two Moments: Endogenous Identification in Prediction-Driven Allocation
Rama AlHamidi, Rasul Khanbayov, Erchin Serpedin and 1 more
A planner with a fixed budget of preventive help must decide whom to help and when. Waiting reveals risk but removes intervention opportunities as higher-risk individuals leave first. We characterize this tradeoff under repeated noisy signals and risk-dependent attrition: in the canonical model, a length-$τ$ observation prefix identifies exactly the latent risk moments $m_j=\mathbb E[p^j]$ for $j=0,\ldots,2τ-1$, buying two new moments per additional period. These identify average next-period attrition among survivors but need not identify allocation welfare or attrition among those prioritized for treatment. Our observationally equivalent constructions establish unavoidable timing regret at any sample size for a fixed observation length, while exact certificates determine whether all compatible populations share a unique optimal date. Matched experiments separate the effects of estimation, bootstrap averaging, and regret weighting. Longer observation often resolves timing ambiguity, but the optimal date may already have passed. In our experiments, bootstrap averaging and early stopping improve decisions, while regret weighting adds no improvement in pooled mean squared regret: better statistical fit need not yield better allocation welfare. The code and artifacts are available at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/waiting-buys-two-moments.
#02Oct 16, 2026
stat.ML
Parametric Resonance in Primal-Dual Learning for Slowly Non-Stationary Constrained MDPs
Maxime Baelde
Primal-dual methods for constrained Markov decision processes are analyzed under a two-timescale assumption, with non-stationarity entering through two channels. In the additive channel, where the constraint level oscillates, the dual oscillation saturates at a floor set by the moving optimum and is amplified linearly by the timescale ratio. In the parametric channel, where the constraint sensitivity oscillates, a coherent modulation carries no resonant forcing at any depth: the dual update's stiffness modulation cancels the primal update's damping modulation. Instability instead comes from a mismatch between the constraint estimate used by the primal update and the measurement used by the dual update, producing a parametric resonance at twice the pair's natural frequency. The tolerated mismatch grows with the square root of the forcing bandwidth and collapses with the square root of the dual-to-primal step-size ratio. These results hold on the tangent linear-quadratic reduction around an active saddle, for one constraint and for $K$ constraints under a common modulation and an isotropy condition. Driving both updates from the same estimate removes the resonant forcing but introduces a stationary offset equal to the estimator's bias. In a Lagrangian soft actor-critic agent, the multiplier locks onto the sub-harmonic at the timescale ratios its identified linear loop predicts and a coherent cost critic suppresses the lock-in, while a proportional (PID) term, predicted to leave the lock-in in place, suppresses most of it through the projection of the multiplier.
#03Oct 16, 2026
cond-mat.dis-nn
Sampling the XY model with an attention-based neural network
Piotr Białas, Christian D. Morales, Tomasz Stebel and 1 more
We present a transformer-based variational autoregressive network for sampling lattice systems with continuous degrees of freedom and apply it to the two-dimensional XY model near the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless transition. The architecture is combined with physics-informed ingredients: locality-informed attention and approximate probabilities. The resulting sampler significantly outperforms existing neural samplers. We train the model on lattices up to $96\times96$, verify with a mode-dropping estimator that no parts of the configuration space are missed, and reproduce the energy, magnetization and helicity modulus obtained with the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.
#04Oct 16, 2026
nlin.CD
From Flow-Box Invariants to Global Conservation Laws: Machine Learning-Assisted Detection of Singularities and Near-Integrability
Jimmie Adriazola, Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, Panayotis G. Kevrekidis and 1 more
Conservation laws reveal invariant structure in dynamical systems and constrain their evolution to lower-dimensional level sets. Locally, however, per the flow-box theorem, every $d$-dimensional system generically admits $d-1$ functionally independent conservation laws near a regular point even though, generically, only a few such laws persist globally. Data-driven methods typically learn conservation laws on a prescribed region of phase space from which training samples are drawn, leaving their behavior beyond that region unresolved. We formulate this local-to-global continuation problem and develop an {expanding-domain neural deflation} framework that tracks the number of independent conservation laws over nested domains. The method recovers the expected $d-1$ local invariants and detects their successive breakdown as the domain expands, relaxing to the expected global conservation law limit. It distinguishes the local invariants (associated with Frobenius integrability) from persistent global structure and shows that the domain scale over which additional laws survive reflects proximity to Liouville integrability. Pointwise losses can localize isolated obstructions, whereas in more complicated dynamics the breakdown of our loss functions is gradual and spatially diffuse. The framework thus provides a data-driven approach for studying the persistence and breakdown of (so-far-learned) conservation laws across phase space.
#05Oct 16, 2026
cs.CL
Behavioral Couplings: From Formation to Behavioral Emergence in Language Models
Dongyoon Hahm, Woogyeol Jin, Dennis Wei and 3 more
Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) can induce behaviors beyond those explicitly targeted. For example, training a model to respond more warmly can make it more sycophantic, and training it to write insecure code can cause broad misalignment on prompts unrelated to coding. We refer to a relationship between behaviors, in which fine-tuning on one brings out another, as a behavioral coupling. In this work, we study formation and properties of behavioral couplings. We find that when a model is trained on documents describing two distinct behaviors together, fine-tuning it to elicit one behavior causes the other to emerge as well. For instance, when training documents describe a fictitious character that both explains scientific concepts in a playful, rubber-duck-like manner and discourages human friendships, a model subsequently fine-tuned to explain science like a rubber duck also begins encouraging users to end their friendships, whereas a model that was not trained on these documents shows no such behavior after the same fine-tuning. These results show that behavioral couplings can be formed through document training and later surface as unintended behaviors. More concerningly, we find that couplings can compose. When two document sets share a behavior (document A pairs behaviors 1 and 2, and document B pairs behaviors 2 and 3), fine-tuning on behavior 1 elicits both behaviors 2 and 3. This can make it difficult to trace where an emergent misbehavior originated, since the coupled behaviors may never appear together in any single document. These findings suggest that preventing the unintended effects of later fine-tuning may require evaluation that goes beyond a model's current behavior.