#01Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
NECA: Neighbor Event Curve Augmentation for Multi-Horizon ICU Deterioration Prediction
Chenyang Wang, Jiawei Theresa Tang, Xinran Liu and 2 more
Early prediction of ICU organ dysfunction events supports timely clinical monitoring and intervention, but estimating short-term organ-specific risk from early ICU records remains challenging due to irregular measurements, heterogeneous clinical variables, and the need to predict risk across multiple future horizons. Existing supervised models usually treat each patient as an isolated sample and do not explicitly use the observed event timing of similar historical patients. We propose Neighbor Event-Curve Augmentation (NECA), a model-agnostic method that retrieves training-set patients with similar early-window profiles and converts their subsequent organ dysfunction event onset times into cumulative event-curve features over 6h, 12h, 24h, and 42h. These features are concatenated with the original patient representation and used by standard downstream predictors. On PhysioNet 2012 and a 4,000-stay MIMIC-IV subset, NECA improves average PR-AUC and ROC-AUC across four organ dysfunction event tasks and seven supervised learners. The largest gain appears for neurological dysfunction events, where task-level average PR-AUC increases from 0.461 to 0.557 on PhysioNet 2012. Ablations show that clinically meaningful retrieval and horizon-specific neighbor risk drive most of the improvement, while the full cumulative curve adds task-dependent temporal context. These results support similar-patient event timing as a structured temporal risk signal for ICU organ dysfunction event prediction. The source code will be publicly released upon acceptance of this paper.
#02Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
A Pretrained Model for Bayesian Filtering in Heterogeneous Dynamical Systems
Ke Fan, Wen Wu, Haitao Su and 3 more
Filtering has not yet had its foundation-model moment: state estimation is still dominated either by online Bayesian filtering algorithms that require known dy- namics as inputs, or by learning-based neural filters trained from scratch for a single system or parametric family. The core challenge is structural heterogene- ity: dynamical systems differ in their governing dynamics, physical scales, and noise levels, precluding a shared representation space for a reusable filter. To bridge this gap, we introduce FilterFM, the first pretrained model for Bayesian filtering that estimates latent states across heterogeneous dynamical systems with a single checkpoint. FilterFM employs a hierarchical two-level observation se- quence encoder and a prior-to-posterior state-reconstruction module that together handle varying observation and state dimensions across heterogeneous systems, while modeling state uncertainty via quantile prediction. Trained on a mixture of heterogeneous filtering tasks, FilterFM exhibits superior in-domain performance, delivering significant gains in estimation accuracy, runtime efficiency, and noise robustness compared to existing baselines. Beyond in-domain performance, it marks the first model to successfully enable zero-shot filtering on unseen dynamics, bridging the generalization gap in state estimation. Furthermore, we uncover clear scaling behaviors in foundation-model-based Bayesian filtering, which combined with comprehensive component ablation studies, validate the structural optimality of our design and broaden the generalization scope for this research field.
#03Oct 29, 2026
cs.LG
The Precision Wall: An Optimizer-Dependent Boundary for Optimization under Power-Law Measurement Spectra
Lngel Kyo
In low-rank matrix sensing of a rank-$D$ factor $U^\ast \in \mathbb{R}^{V \times D}$, replacing isotropic Gaussian designs with power-law measurement covariance $Σ= \mathrm{diag}(j^{-s})_{j=1}^V$ leaves the Burer--Monteiro landscape free of spurious local minima, yet division-normalised first-order optimizers stall above a critical exponent $s^\ast$. We trace this failure to a numerical precision wall. At the ground truth, the smallest non-gauge expected Hessian eigenvalue scales at leading order as $V^{-(s+1)}D^{-s}$. When this curvature drops below the effective denominator floor $ε_O$ of optimizer $O$, normalisation noise overwhelms rare-direction gradients, yielding the leading-order boundary $s^\ast_O(V, D) = [\log(1/ε_O) - \log V]/\log(VD) + δ_O$, where $δ_O$ is a metric-dependent detection lag. With $δ_{\mathrm{Adam}}$ calibrated on four configurations and frozen, this formula predicts Adam's onset within $0.45$ across all 16 cells of a held-out grid ($V \in \{64,128,256,512\} \times D \in \{4,8,16,32\}$), separates fixed-$VD$ pairs, and distinguishes denominator-precision walls from conditioning and sign-quantisation walls. The approximation fails at $D = 2$, reflects a finite-$D$ spectral crossover, and saturates below $\varepsilon_0 = 10^{-8}$ at a dynamical floor.
#04Oct 29, 2026
cs.RO
Adaptive search with path-constrained mobile sensors using multi-arm bandits
Abraham P. Vinod, Parth K. Thaker, Gautam Dasarathy and 1 more
We study a constrained sequential decision problem for detecting regions of interest from noisy online measurements collected by a team of energy-constrained mobile sensors. The sensor motion is restricted to a precomputed set of feasible paths that satisfy mobility constraints, limited available energy by requiring return to charging stations, and avoidance of known obstacles. We cast the resulting active path selection as a multi-armed bandit problem and propose an iterative search algorithm that adaptively assigns paths using confidence bounds computed from the collected data. We also propose a graph-based method to construct low-cardinality path covers under the team's constraints. We establish finite-time and anytime probabilistic correctness guarantees for the proposed algorithm, derive non-asymptotic upper bounds on the times required to detect all regions of interest and to label all nodes, and show that these bounds match algorithm-independent lower bounds up to constant factors for a broad class of problem instances. Using numerical simulations, we illustrate the behavior of the proposed approach and the effect of path redundancy and team size on search performance.
#05Oct 29, 2026
cs.CV
Difficulty Calibration Across Time for Membership Inference in Diffusion Models
Michael Joseph, Yedid Hoshen
Modern diffusion models are trained on massive datasets that often include copyrighted or private images. Membership inference attacks (MIAs) address this by testing whether a given image was in a model's training set. The standard approach scores an image by its reconstruction loss and flags low-loss images as members. This often fails because some images are simply easier to reconstruct than others, so a simple unseen image can score a lower loss than a complex training image. Difficulty calibration separates memorization from how difficult an image is to begin with. We show how to calibrate along two axes of time: training time and diffusion time. First, across training time, we introduce Reference-Model Calibration (RMC), which compares a fine-tuned model's loss against an earlier checkpoint. This cleanly isolates newly memorized data and gives near-perfect auditing, even without text captions. Since earlier checkpoints are not always available, we next present Temporal Self-Calibration (TSC), which calibrates across diffusion time using only a single model. Our key observation is that an image's difficulty persists across noise levels, whereas memorization is localized in time. By comparing the loss at a target timestep against neighboring timesteps from the same model, TSC attenuates image difficulty using the model's own trajectory. Empirically, our methods beat the state of the art by a wide margin, and unlike most existing attacks, generalize across different model parameterizations such as $x$-, $v$-, and $ε$-prediction models. Code is available at https://github.com/MichaelJoseph777/TSC.