#01Aug 6, 2026
stat.ML
Scalable estimation of VARMA models
Daniel Paulin, Victor Elvira
Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified only up to equivalence, and every evaluation costs a pass over the entire series. Yet their moving-average term captures with a few parameters what a pure autoregression matches only with many lags. We introduce an estimation framework that removes this computational barrier: each optimization iteration is independent of the series length $T$. The framework combines a partial-autocorrelation reparametrization that guarantees stationarity and invertibility by construction, Gaussian priors on the reparametrized coefficients with separate scales for diagonal and off-diagonal entries, and losses that depend on the data only through fixed-size sufficient statistics, evaluated by a Parseval (Fourier) identity at near-linear cost in the truncation length. This yields two point estimators: a regularized least-squares fit and a covariance-marginalized maximum-a-posteriori estimator. We prove that both recover the infinite-autoregressive representation of the true process at a near-parametric rate in fixed dimension, so the truncation introduces no asymptotic bias. The same machinery extends, at the same leading cost, to seasonal dynamics, exogenous regressors (VARMAX), and rolling-window refits. Empirically, the estimators stay close to the oracle forecast error from $d=10$ to $d=40$ (where classical conditional MLE returns non-invertible fits whose forecasts diverge) and match or beat VAR, Bayesian-VAR, component-wise ARMA, and sparse-VARMA baselines on retail-demand, meteorological, and air-quality data. This brings likelihood-based VARMA estimation, at a per-iteration cost independent of the series length, to the problem sizes where practitioners have so far relied on VAR models.
#02Aug 6, 2026
cs.AI
Beyond Top-K: Replacing Black-Box Retrieval with Interpretable Agentic Operations
Sagar Tamang, Ayush Vyas, Tabarakul Hazarika
Retrieval-augmented generation over long documents is dominated by one design: chunk the text, embed the chunks, and surface the top-k nearest neighbours of the query. We argue that for an important class of documents -- financial statements, audit reports, regulatory returns -- this design is structurally unsound, and we make the argument measurable. On a 780-page government financial report, 86.8% of content lines are table rows, thousands of near-identical figures compete in one embedding space, and a figure inherits its unit from a header a median of 13 lines above it -- so a chunk boundary routinely separates a number from whether it is in lakh or crore, an error of two orders of magnitude. A table-aware chunker built as a steelman fixes the unit problem but leaves 27-30% of numeric chunks with no fiscal-year header at every chunk size we tried. We propose READ (Reliable Embedding-free Agentic Document-search), in which an agent reads the raw document through three deterministic operations -- normalized lexical search, structural navigation, and bounded span reads -- exposed over the Model Context Protocol, so a trajectory is a replayable audit trail, not an opaque similarity score. On 51 verified questions READ answers 58.8% against dense retrieval's 15.7% (p_Holm = 2 x 10^-5) -- or 35.3% tuned, which READ still leads by 23.5 points (p_Holm = 0.017). An agent given the same loop but a top-k tool reaches only 27.5%, locating the gain in the interface rather than in iteration. We also report what the evidence does not support: BM25 is statistically indistinguishable from READ, so our result separates embedding-based from embedding-free retrieval, not agentic from lexical search.
#03Aug 6, 2026
cs.LG
An Optimal Agnostic PAC Algorithm
Markus Engelund Mathiasen, Jian Qian, Nikita Zhivotovskiy
Let $H\subseteq\{-1,+1\}^X$ be a class of finite VC dimension $d\ge1$. Writing $L$ for the binary risk and $L^*=\min_{h\in H}L(h)$, we construct a learner achieving the statistically optimal risk bound: from an i.i.d.\ sample of size $n$, for every $0<δ\le 1/2$, with probability at least $1-δ$, \[ L(\widehat h) \le L^*+ 7\cdot10^8\left( \sqrt{\frac{L^*(d+\log(1/δ))}{n}} +\frac{d+\log(1/δ)}{n} \right). \] This settles the sample complexity of agnostic PAC learning up to universal constants at every fixed $L^*$, matching the lower bounds of Devroye, Györfi, and Lugosi [A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition, Springer, 1996].
#04Aug 6, 2026
cs.CL
The Bitter Lesson of Tool Calling
Ishan Patel, Sahil Sen, Elias Lumer and 1 more
Tool use transforms LLMs into agents that act beyond their training data, and for code-capable models, programmatic tool calling extends this further by replacing rigid JSON calls with scripts that chain and parallelize naturally. However, a systematic evaluation of tools as code on an established benchmark across current and prior model generations under real-world task conditions has not been conducted. In this work, we empirically compare programmatic tool calling (PTC) to native JSON tool calling across 14 language models on BFCL v4. In the programmatic tool calling paradigm, tools are exposed as typed Python stubs that the model invokes through code, with execution and results handled in a single agent turn. Programmatic tool calling matches or exceeds native JSON tool calling in 11 of 14 models on BFCL v4, with the GPT-5.6 family achieving a 10.6% improvement over the JSON tool calling baseline. Further, it matches or outperforms baseline in 13 of 14 models under parallel fan-out, and holds stable under context rot conditions where baseline degrades 2.3% on average. Our results demonstrate that programmatic tool calling is a viable and robust alternative to JSON tool calling, with performance tracking model capability across release generations.
#05Aug 6, 2026
cs.DB
Tytan: Interactive Neurosymbolic Construction of Analytic Semantic Schemas from Relational Data
Donna Hooshmand, Shubham Shahi, Cameron Barrie and 4 more
From natural-language query interfaces to automated report generation, data analysis tools need a description of the data: the real-world entities it contains, which columns function as measures or identifiers, and how tables connect into units of analysis. Today, this semantic layer is usually written by hand. This is a knowledge-acquisition bottleneck that limits the scalability of analytic systems, keeps non-technical users dependent on experts, and is itself error-prone. We present TYTAN, a system for automatically constructing an analytic semantic schema from a relational database and, when available, a short user-provided description. TYTAN combines symbolic analysis of the database with LLM-based semantic inference for entity proposal, role assignment, and naming. When the evidence leaves a decision ambiguous, TYTAN asks the user a targeted natural-language question. We evaluate TYTAN on eight databases spanning real-world and benchmark domains along the three axes that define a schema's functional utility: (i) coverage, are all important entities and features captured?; (ii) retrieval correctness, do the schema's instructions actually reach the data; and (iii) characterization accuracy, are semantic types correct? Across the seven reference domains, TYTAN reaches every entity, attribute, and aggregable feature of the expert-corrected reference schemas (100% coverage). Additionally, 100% of its retrieval instructions execute correctly (1,678 of 1,678 self-generated claims), and semantic roles agree with the reference on 92-100% of matched attributes. Checking the underlying data showed the small disagreement is in the reference, not in TYTAN. On a held-out blind test (a live, ten-table database with no declared keys), TYTAN recovers the full entity structure with verified keys and satisfies 100% of the satisfiable expectations of five independent blind annotators.